Napoli vs Bologna Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

For our Napoli vs Bologna prediction, team news, lineups and fixture preview, we’re looking at how the visitors could claim a historic win that will see them all but secure a Champions League spot. 

Prediction: Napoli 1-1 Bologna

Bologna are thirteen points ahead of last year’s Serie A champions. Who would have imagined that only nine months ago? Napoli probably can’t wait for this turbulent season to be over, but can they produce one last hurrah? Our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has analysed Saturday’s game at the ‘Diego Armando Maradona’.

In this article: 

• Napoli vs Bologna Tip 1: Bologna Asian Handicap +0.5
• Napoli vs Bologna Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals
• Napoli vs Bologna Tip 3: Victor Osimhen Anytime Goalscorer

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 1: can you trust the hosts at even odds?

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, May 11th, 17:00 (UK)

With the 1-1 draw in Udine on Monday, Napoli have almost surrendered any hope of qualifying for next season’s Europa League. 

Isaac Success’ first goal of the season meant the Neapolitans are now five points behind Lazio, currently occupying the seventh spot in Italy’s top flight. 

A big rebuild and players’ turnover is expected in the summer and the feeling is that, after this season’s collection of horrors (conceding against a struggling Udinese side in stoppage time sits pretty high on the list), Napoli might be better off without European competitions next season. 

In the first half against the Friulani, Franco Calzona’s team produced no shots on target and, as it also happened two weeks ago at home against Roma, could not hang on to their second-half lead. 

Napoli have almost forgotten how to win games, in fact they’ve only obtained one success the last nine games in all competitions and haven’t kept a clean sheet since 28 January (0-0 vs Lazio). 

Calzona has become the first manager in the club’s history whose team has conceded for 11 straight league games. 

• Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 1: Bologna Asian Handicap +0.5 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 2: visitors have destiny in their hands

Napoli are still considered favorites (their win pays 2.00) to win the match, but it’s hard to imagine how a team with no objectives for the remainder of the season, and with a poor home record (only 24 points), could defeat Bologna. 

The visitors have sensibly slowed down in the last month, collecting just one win in the previous five matches and scoring only four goals in total, but look in better form.

In fact Thiago Motta’s team have only lost one (1-0 at home against Inter) of their previous 15 Serie A games and need only five more points to secure a historical qualification to the Champions League. 

Bologna holds the record for away draws this season (nine), and their scoring numbers are average (only 19 goals, having failed to score five times, including in two of the last two trips). 

Despite the lack of successes on the road the visitors have remained extremely competitive, having lost one (2-1 against Fiorentina) of the eight games they played against top table oppositions. 

They’ve also kept five away clean sheets (they’re behind only Inter and Juventus) and have conceded just ten times during the second halves. Only Real Madrid (nine goals suffered) holds a better record than Bologna in Europe’s top five leagues. 

• Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 2: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 3: ‘Masked’ Victor will leave his mark

Bologna are the only team in Serie A that hasn’t lost a game in the last six match days. 

The visitors also hold the best defensive record in this period (only two goals conceded) as four of their matches ended with two goals or less. 

Napoli have netted only 24 goals in Serie A at home this season, less than newly-promoted Cagliari and Frosinone, but have only failed to score in one of their previous eight games at Fuorigrotta. 

Last year’s champions are second only to Lecce for xG (expected goals) differentials, or, in other words, the goals they should have scored. 

Napoli’s xG value is almost 64, +10.85 compared to their actual goals, meaning they’ve lacked composure, confidence and have been extremely wasteful. 

The hosts’ hopes to produce an upset rely, almost solely, on the form of their Nigerian center-forward. 

Victor Osimhen will probably leave the club in the summer but his future plans are not affecting his performances. 

In fact, he has scored in four of the last five games, taking his seasonal tally to 17. The ‘masked’ striker was subbed off on Monday with three minutes to go due to a slight knee injury, so check the lineups before placing your bet. 

• Napoli vs Bologna Prediction 3: Victor Osimhen Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.30
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Napoli vs Bologna Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:15, May 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Napoli vs Bologna Team News and Possible Lineups: a return in defense for both sides

Kvaratskhelia and Raspadori are still suffering from muscular problems and would need to be assessed, Ngonge might play from the start replacing Lindstrom. 

Juan Jesus will return in the back four, Cajuste will be confirmed in midfield. Zielinski, Dendoncker and Gollini are all not available. 

For Bologna Zirkzee will play upfront supported by Saelemaekers, with Orsolini on the opposite flank. Fabbian will be deployed as attacking midfielder but El Azzouzi is also in contention for a start. Beukema is back from suspensions and should replace Lucumi. Scottish international Ferguson is out for the rest of the season. 

Napoli possible starting lineup:
Meret; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Juan Jesus, Olivera; Anguissa, Lobotka, Traore; Politano, Osimhen, Ngonge.

Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Posch, Beukema, Calafiori, Kristiansen; Freuler, Aebischer; Orsolini, Fabbian, Saelemaekers; Zirkzee.

Match Stats: Napoli are very vulnerable at home

• Napoli have lost five Serie A home games this season and collected less points (24) than newly-promoted Cagliari and Frosinone.
• The home side have only kept two league clean sheets at the ‘Stadio Maradona’
• Last year’s champions have 51 points in the table, one more than what they collected last season after 19 games. 
• Bologna hold the record of away draws (9), and have kept five away clean sheets.

Napoli Fixtures: a chance to secure a European spot

• Vs Fiorentina (A)
• Vs Lecce (H)

Bologna Fixtures: can they leapfrog the ‘Old Lady’?

• Vs Juventus (H)
• Vs Genoa (A)

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