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After spoiling Bologna’s party last Saturday the Brianzoli are hosting another side fighting to qualify for next season’s Champions League and our Serie A expert, Daniele Fisichella, has looked into Monza vs Atalanta prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.
Prediction: Monza 1-1 Atalanta
This Lombardy derby is sandwiched between two crucial cup games for Atalanta and Gianpiero Gasperini will face a couple of selection dilemmas.
Monza are virtually saved and their aim is to better last season’s point tally (52) by taking a few more important scalps.
- Monza vs Atalanta Tip 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes
- Monza vs Atalanta Tip 2: Monza Asian Handicap +0.5
- Monza vs Atalanta Tip 3: Matteo Pessina Over 0.5 Shots On
Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 1: The two faces of Gasperini’s side
Italy, Serie A, Sunday, April 21st, 19:45 (UK)
On Monday, Atalanta squandered two vital points in the race to qualify for the Champions League.
The Orobici totally dominated the first half against Verona and scored twice in quick succession, first with Gianluca Scamacca (his 14th goal of the season, the seventh since March) and then with Ederson (sixth league goal, twice as many he scored for Salernitana last year).
Giampiero Gasperini’s men wasted a couple of glorious chances to put the game to bed (as Verona’s goalkeeper Lorenzo Montipò made some great saves), before conceding two goals within four minutes in the second half.
A disappointing result for Atalanta leaves them four points behind Roma, who are currently occupying the fifth spot.
Gasperini only made three changes to the formation that won at Anfield, and his players’ rotation will be crucial with key games in all three competitions coming up.
Atalanta haven’t won a Serie A home match since 17 February, and their away form has been patchy (they’ve lost seven and have a 0 goal difference on the road).
Equally, they’re always very dangerous going forward: they’ve only failed to score four times and found the net with 13 different players in Serie A.
- Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.70
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 2: Hosts are living up to their giant-killers reputation
However, the visitors have only kept two clean sheets in the last 11 games in all competitions and often suffer from sudden blackouts.
They conceded on twelve out of 16 occasions on the road in Serie A, and their defensive record away from home is worse than Verona and Udinese.
Playing in both Coppa Italia and Europa League is clearly taking its toll on Atalanta, who have only won one (3-0 in Naples) of the previous seven matches in Italy’s top flight.
Having virtually nothing to play for makes Monza one of the trickiest sides to face at the moment.
In fact, Raffaele Palladino’s side have quality in their ranks and are never afraid of going toe-to-toe against top sides.
Last week, they came out of ‘Stadio Renato Dall’Ara’ with a point, although Bologna had much better opportunities to win the game.
Monza have become more solid and harder to beat in 2024, in fact they’ve only lost three of their last 11 games.
They’ve kept seven home clean sheets (just one less than Atalanta) and failed to score only three times in front of their crowd.
- Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 2: Monza Asian Handicap +0.5 (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 3: Former teammate could make visitors ‘pay the penalty’
Atalanta will come into this match after a tough battle against Liverpool on Thursday.
The 3-0 success at Anfield represents a great lead, but for all Atalanta’s merits, that scoreline flattered the Bergamaschi a bit.
Atalanta have only won four out of the 11 games they played after a cup match, and they’ve also lost to Bologna at home after facing Inter in mid-week at San Siro.
Those four wins came against sides fighting for salvation (Cagliari, Empoli, Salernitana and Frosinone), and three of them were at home.
Monza have got the biggest xGA (expected goals against) differential, +11.52, but will fancy their chances having had eight days to prepare for this match and 48 hours more than their rivals.
Former Atalanta player Matteo Pessina has scored five goals (three times from the penalty spot) this season as Monza have won four out of five times when their captain has found the net.
Atalanta have conceded eight kicks from the spot (third worst record behind Salernitana and Sassuolo), and Pessina, who has had so far 10 shots on target during this campaign (he’s fourth in the Monza’s ranks), could have the opportunity to punish the club where he played three seasons.
- Monza vs Atalanta Prediction 3: Matteo Pessina Over 0.5 Shots On Target (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 4/10
Monza vs Atalanta Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:20, April 16th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Monza vs Atalanta Team News and Possible Lineups: huge turnover for Gasp?
The hosts welcome back Danilo D’Ambrosio who missed the last 12 games and will play at left-back. In midfield Roberto Gagliardini will replace the suspended Akpa Akpro. Zerbin and Colpani will play behind the lone striker, Djuric, with Pessina in support. Ciurria and Valentin Carboni should start on the bench.
Depending on the result of the Liverpool game, Gasperini might make some heavy rotations for this match.
In fact, Atalanta will host Fiorentina in the second leg of the Coppa Italia semi-final next Wednesday. There might be a chance from the start for Tourè and Miranchuk; Pasalic might replace Koopmeiners, and Bakker could play as right-wing-back instead of Ruggeri.
Monza possible starting lineup:
Di Gregorio; Birindelli, Marì, Izzo, D’Ambrosio; Bondo, Gagliardini; Pessina, Colpani, Zerbin; Djuric.
Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Carnesecchi; Toloi, Djimsiti, Kolasinac; Zappacosta, De Roon, Ederson, Bakker; Pasalic, Miranchuk; Tourè.
The Predicted Monza vs Atalanta Serie A Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Monza vs Atalanta, currently 12th vs 6th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Monza vs Atalanta Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Inter | 38 | 29.1 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 88.1 | 23.9 | 64.2 | 93.2 |
| 2 | Juventus | 38 | 23.4 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 58.6 | 26.2 | 32.4 | 79.6 |
| 3 | AC Milan | 38 | 21.8 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 70.0 | 47.8 | 22.2 | 72.5 |
| 4 | Atalanta | 38 | 21.0 | 6.1 | 10.8 | 71.7 | 39.9 | 31.8 | 69.2 |
| 5 | Bologna | 38 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 53.1 | 37.3 | 15.8 | 63.9 |
| 6 | AS Roma | 38 | 17.6 | 8.5 | 11.9 | 62.0 | 43.6 | 18.5 | 61.2 |
| 7 | Lazio | 38 | 17.7 | 7.5 | 12.8 | 47.7 | 38.8 | 8.9 | 60.5 |
| 8 | Napoli | 38 | 16.7 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 55.6 | 44.0 | 11.6 | 59.6 |
| 9 | Fiorentina | 38 | 15.9 | 8.3 | 13.8 | 54.3 | 46.1 | 8.2 | 56.0 |
| 10 | Torino | 38 | 13.6 | 12.8 | 11.6 | 36.4 | 35.3 | 1.1 | 53.7 |
| 11 | Monza | 38 | 11.2 | 12.2 | 14.5 | 37.7 | 50.0 | -12.3 | 45.9 |
| 12 | Genoa | 38 | 10.7 | 12.6 | 14.6 | 38.2 | 47.2 | -9.0 | 44.9 |
| 13 | Udinese | 38 | 7.3 | 17.5 | 13.2 | 39.7 | 54.6 | -14.8 | 39.4 |
| 14 | Lecce | 38 | 9.1 | 12.0 | 16.9 | 41.0 | 60.6 | -19.6 | 39.3 |
| 15 | Sassuolo | 38 | 9.9 | 8.4 | 19.7 | 47.9 | 65.8 | -17.9 | 38.1 |
| 16 | Frosinone | 38 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 20.4 | 47.0 | 73.6 | -26.6 | 36.8 |
| 17 | Empoli | 38 | 8.6 | 10.4 | 19.0 | 32.4 | 56.8 | -24.4 | 36.2 |
| 18 | Verona | 38 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 18.8 | 36.8 | 52.2 | -15.4 | 34.8 |
| 19 | Cagliari | 38 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 20.4 | 39.0 | 68.6 | -29.6 | 33.1 |
| 20 | Salernitana | 38 | 4.2 | 9.7 | 24.0 | 31.3 | 76.3 | -44.9 | 22.4 |
Match Stats: Scamacca’s magic moment continues
- Since the beginning of March only three players (Cole Palmer, 11, Florian Wirtz, 9, and Harry Kane, 8), in Europe’s top five leagues, have scored more goals than Gianluca Scamacca (7) considering all competitions.
- Atalanta have won just one of the previous seven Serie A matches, after a positive streak with eight wins in 10 games (1D, 1L).
- Teun Koopmeiners has been involved in 15 goals so far (11 goals, four assists), only Christian Pulisic has done better, among the midfielders, in Italy’s top flight.
- Monza have drawn five games 0-0 (like Bologna), only Torino has had more scoreless draws (seven) so far.
Monza Fixtures: a couple of big games to end the season
- Vs Lecce (A)
- Vs Lazio (H)
- Vs Fiorentina (A)
- Vs Frosinone (H)
- Vs Juventus (A)
Atalanta Fixtures: big home matches, in the cup and Serie A
- Vs Fiorentina, Coppa Italia (H)
- Vs Empoli (H)
- Vs Salernitana (A)
- Vs Roma (H)
- Vs Lecce (A)
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