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Boxing Montpellier vs Lille Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview
Ahead of the lunchtime Ligue 1 kick off on Sunday, French Ligue 1 expert Steve Wyss has readied a Montpellier vs Lille prediction, tips and best bets preview.
Lille will be looking to maintain their assault on the European places whilst Montpellier will hope to inch away from any relegation trouble. But that’s not it – Steve has also pieced together an OGC Nice vs Metz prediction preview if this doesn’t quench one’s thirst entirely.
Montpellier vs Lille Prediction and Tips Preview
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 1: Montpellier +0.5 Asian Handicap
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 3: Draw at HT
In this article:
- Montpellier vs Lille Team News
- The Predicted Ligue 1 Table
- Montpellier vs Lille Stats Preview
- How to watch Montpellier vs Lille
- Safer Gambling
Montpellier vs Lille Tip 1: Share of the spoils likely on the south coast
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 28th January, 12:00 (UK)
Montpellier are a difficult side to work out this season, but they appear to be underrated in this fixture. They have only won a single home game in Ligue 1 but drawn 6 out of 9 fixtures here at Le Stade Mosson. This is never an easy place to go for any visiting side, and Montpellier will be more than competitive.
Lille are the better outfit and in better form, but they are untrustworthy on the road. With just two victories in nine away trips, the idea of backing them at a price close to odds-on is not very appalling versus a team like Montpellier.
It’s not often I would recommend it, but backing the exact draw at 3.75 could offer some value. Lille have a high percentage of drawn away fixtures, and this match feels like it could be a 0-0 or 1-1 type result. The most sensible option is to take Montpellier on a +0.5 Asian Handicap, though, because it covers for the eventuality of a home win or a draw.
Montpellier are a big underachiever this season and, in the expected points table, should have six more than they currently have. They’ve also underachieved in front of goal by a margin of -6.62. The statement is they are a better team than their league position suggests and could be underestimated here.
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 1: Montpellier +0.5 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.88
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Montpellier vs Lille Tip 2: Misfiring attacks could lead to a low-scoring game
On the face of things, both teams should have no problems converting chances into goals. Jonathan David is one of the best forwards in the CONCACAF region but has not fired as well as he’d have liked this season.
The Canadian superstar has only netted six times, although his recent form has been improved. His xG of nine goals has clearly not been converted as well as it should have been. Montpellier also have the same problem with Akor Adams, who has only scored seven times from an xG of 9.32. Both of these sides have continually underachieved in front of goal, leading to a glutton of under 2.5 games.
I am surprised Under 2.5 goals can be backed as big as 1.80 here. Lille are known for having a great defence and conceded the fewest average shots against of any team in the division. They could easily shut out Montpellier here or restrict them to one goal. Montpellier often looks good going forward before making the wrong decision or showing poor finishing. They have been relying on set pieces and penalties and struggle to score from open play.
The last six consecutive Montpellier fixtures have all ended with under 2.5 goals, and only Nice have had more ‘unders’ than Lille. If someone wins this game, then the 1-0 scoreline is very much on the cards, with 0-0 possibly being an option. This goal line should be 2 or 2.25, so there is definite value to be had.
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 2: Under 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Montpellier vs Lille Tip 3: Halftime stalemate possible at the Mosson
With this expected to be quite a tight contest, backing the half-time draw at a decent 2.20 price looks to be a wise option. Neither of these teams are particularly known for half-time draws this season, but the style of this fixture could lead to a very tight and cagey contest.
It feels like the sort of first period in which the two teams will feel each other out. Lille have one of the best defensive records in the league, and Montpellier only averages just over one goal against at home.
Each side has only been drawing at half-time four times out of 18 in Ligue 1 this season, so the stats don’t really point to an all-square first period. However, you could say both are overdue for more stalemates and if we look at this match individually, then a lot falls into place.
The exact 0-0 looks very possible, and if either team does get an early goal, then they are unlikely to run away with it. The odds of 2.20 for a half-time draw just look big if this game is as tight as I think it will be.
- Montpellier vs Lille Tip 3: Draw at HT (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.20
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Montpellier vs Lille Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:36, January 22nd, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Montpellier vs Lille Team News Preview: Montpellier more affected by the international window
Montpellier have at least five players ruled out on AFCON duty including defender Kiki Kouyate and wing back Issiaga Sylla. Their injury situation is more favorable though, presuming everyone has come through unscathed from their midweek Coupe de France tie.
Lille are far less affected by this international window with only Adam Ounas and Nabil Bentaleb on AFCON duty. Their own injury situation is also not bad with only long term casualties to worry about.
The Predicted Ligue 1 Table
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.7 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 78.4 | 31.3 | 47.1 | 75.3 |
| 2 | Nice | 34 | 18.1 | 9.0 | 7.0 | 43.4 | 26.2 | 17.2 | 63.2 |
| 3 | Brest | 34 | 17.5 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 52.2 | 33.7 | 18.4 | 60.3 |
| 4 | Monaco | 34 | 17.6 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 60.1 | 44.2 | 15.9 | 59.5 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 7.6 | 48.3 | 31.8 | 16.5 | 57.4 |
| 6 | Marseille | 34 | 15.3 | 10.8 | 7.9 | 52.1 | 35.1 | 17.0 | 56.7 |
| 7 | Reims | 34 | 15.9 | 6.0 | 12.1 | 47.9 | 42.9 | 5.0 | 53.8 |
| 8 | Lens | 34 | 14.3 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 47.4 | 40.0 | 7.3 | 51.5 |
| 9 | Rennes | 34 | 12.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 50.0 | 42.0 | 8.1 | 47.4 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 34 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 38.0 | 43.3 | -5.3 | 45.0 |
| 11 | Montpellier | 34 | 10.1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 41.3 | 45.1 | -3.8 | 41.2 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 34 | 9.5 | 10.9 | 13.6 | 36.4 | 44.8 | -8.3 | 39.4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 34 | 9.1 | 7.8 | 17.1 | 38.5 | 56.4 | -17.9 | 35.2 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 9.1 | 6.5 | 18.3 | 39.1 | 59.3 | -20.2 | 34.0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 34 | 7.1 | 11.7 | 15.2 | 33.8 | 50.5 | -16.6 | 33.1 |
| 16 | Metz | 34 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 18.9 | 28.8 | 53.3 | -24.5 | 29.5 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 55.4 | -27.1 | 28.1 |
| 18 | Lorient | 34 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 18.7 | 35.6 | 64.4 | -28.9 | 26.4 |
Montpellier vs Lille Stats Preview
- Montpellier have only won one home game this season but drawn a massive 6 times out of 9.
- Lille have drawn 5 out of 9 on the road with only two defeats.
- Lile have the second best defensive record in Ligue 1, conceding only 14 goals in 18 games.
- 13 out of 18 Lille fixtures have ended with under 2.5 goals.
- Lille average the fewest shots against per game of any team at just 8.70 per 90 minutes.
- Montpellier are on a streak of six consecutive under 2.5 goal league games.
How To Watch
- Montpellier vs Lille, Ligue 1
- Date and Time: Sunday 28th January, 12:00 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
