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Welcome to our Metz vs Lens prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview as the noose gradually closes around Metz in their bid to survive in Ligue 1. Three straight defeats has kept them in 17th position although results around them mean they still have a chance of avoiding the drop.
Metz now faces a Lens side this Friday evening who have fallen off the pace in the European race. They will eye this match as a must win to get back on track. Ligue 1 expert Steve Wyss previews the game from eastern France.
Metz vs Lens Prediction 1: Lens to show their superiority
France, Ligue 1, Friday 12th April, 20:00 (UK)
There is quite simply a big gulf in class between these two teams, and Lens should be able to assert themselves on this game. It has been a challenging season for the visitors but they are still in 6th position and well in the hunt to qualify for Europe. A Champions League spot is starting to drift away from them but with a favourable fixture list there’s no reason why they can’t win all of their remaining games. Lens’ big problem all season has been converting chances into goals. Their xG underachievement of 11.02 is the second most of anyone in the division, and we might have to accept that those numbers won’t now regress to the mean.
Lens should still relish a trip to Metz, though, where chances are likely to be plentiful when facing the second-worst defence in Ligue 1. Metz also have the worst home record and have generally looked out of their depth all season. Les Grenats came from 1-4 down to eventually only lose 3-4 away to Brest last week, but it papers over the cracks and metrics because they were comprehensively outplayed. Lens can be backed as big as 1.80 to win this match, and that looks too generous on a side that is logically one of the best five teams in the country.
- Metz vs Lens Prediction 1: Lens to Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Metz vs Lens Prediction 2: Neither defence can be relied upon
We are getting to the stage of the season where teams are desperate, defences are tired, and everyone needs to show a bit of urgency. A 0-0 draw probably isn’t going to help either side too much here. Lens especially will feel like they need to win this game, and they have an attack force, which has created a very high xG this season. They haven’t converted enough opportunities, but at the very worst, Lens should get on the scoresheet here. BTTS – Yes looks a decent price at 1.80 because the visitors’ defence hasn’t been that watertight of late.
Lens have only kept two clean sheets in their last eight games and couldn’t even shut out Le Havre at home last week. Les Sang et Or have actually overachieved defensively this season and owed plenty to goalkeeper Brice Samba, who has been one of the best shot-stoppers in Ligue 1 the past couple of years. Metz are fighting for their lives and actually scored at least once in all of their last six league games. In Georges Mikautadze they have a striker who merits respect. Lens should outscore Metz, but winning to nil doesn’t look likely.
- Metz vs Lens Prediction 2: BTTS – Yes (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.80
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Metz vs Lens Prediction 3: Must win encounter should open up the game
Towards the end of the season, in most European Leagues, the average goal count usually goes up, and fixtures which might normally be ‘Unders’ tend to go Over. If this game was played in the autumn, then a 1-0 Lens win would perhaps be the most likely outcome, with Metz looking to hang on for a draw. I feel we are in a position now, though, where a draw simply does little for either team. Lens absolutely must push for the 3 points whilst Metz have to make the most of their remaining home games.
Over 2.5 goals can be backed at odds of 2.00, which looks a big price when you consider the fact that one of the worst defences in Ligue 1 are involved. Lens are seriously due a game where they finally convert an abundance of chances and it could come here facing a desperate side. The last three Metz games have comfortably gone over 2.5 goals with 4 of the previous 6 Lens fixtures also ending over the mark. In a match where I fancy BTTS – Yes anyway, it makes sense to go the extra mile and also take the over goal line.
- Metz vs Lens Prediction 3: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Metz vs Lens Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:00, April 8th 2024. Odds may now differ.
Metz vs Lens Team News and Possible Lineups: Both sides at full strength
Metz do not have any fresh concerns or suspensions.
Lens should be close to full strength, although there is a doubt surrounding midfielder Salis Abdul Samed who exited last week’s game due to injury.
Metz possible starting lineup:
Oukidja, Udol, Cande, Traore, Kouao, Camara, Atta, Jean Jacques, Lamkel Ze, Mikautadze, Jallow
Lens possible starting lineup:
Samba, Medina, Danso, Gradit, Frankowski, Diouf, Abdul Samed, Aguilar, Costa, Wahi, Socota
The Predicted Metz vs Lens Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Metz vs Lens, currently 17th vs 6th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Metz vs Lens Standings Prediction
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 79.0 | 32.6 | 46.4 | 75.8 |
| 2 | Brest | 34 | 17.7 | 9.7 | 6.6 | 51.3 | 28.6 | 22.7 | 62.8 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 16.8 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 60.9 | 48.2 | 12.7 | 57.9 |
| 4 | Nice | 34 | 16.0 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 37.6 | 26.8 | 10.8 | 57.7 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 15.0 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 49.0 | 31.9 | 17.1 | 55.9 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.0 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 48.5 | 38.7 | 9.8 | 53.6 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.6 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 50.8 | 36.1 | 14.7 | 52.6 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.3 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 49.5 | 40.7 | 8.8 | 50.6 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 13.2 | 44.9 | 46.2 | -1.2 | 49.1 |
| 10 | Lyon | 34 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 15.5 | 40.8 | 52.2 | -11.4 | 42.4 |
| 11 | Toulouse | 34 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 13.7 | 38.7 | 47.5 | -8.8 | 39.4 |
| 12 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.3 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 41.3 | 46.9 | -5.6 | 38.5 |
| 13 | Strasbourg | 34 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 14.6 | 35.7 | 50.0 | -14.4 | 38.4 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 17.1 | 35.2 | 50.4 | -15.2 | 37.3 |
| 15 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.2 | 11.6 | 14.2 | 36.6 | 47.7 | -11.0 | 36.1 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 17.3 | 41.5 | 63.8 | -22.3 | 31.3 |
| 17 | Clermont | 34 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 17.7 | 28.6 | 55.8 | -27.2 | 28.0 |
| 18 | Metz | 34 | 6.3 | 7.8 | 19.9 | 28.5 | 54.4 | -25.9 | 26.7 |
Match Stats: Clean vs Dirty matchup in Eastern France
- Metz have the worst home record (2-3-8) of any team in Ligue 1.
- Lens have the 3rd highest xG of any team (48.02) but have underperformed in front of goal.
- Metz have conceded the second most number of goals in the division (48).
- Lens have obtained the most cards (69) of any team in Ligue 1.
- Conversely, Metz have received the fewest overall cards (44).
Metz Fixtures: Only five more games left to save their skin
- Vs Le Havre (A)
- Vs Lille (H)
- Vs Rennes (H)
- Vs Strasbourg (A)
- Vs PSG (H)
Lens Fixtures: Favourable finish should lead to optimism
- Vs Clermont (H)
- Vs Marseille (A)
- Vs Lorient (H)
- Vs Rennes (A)
- Vs Montpellier(H)
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