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Boxing Marseille vs Montpellier Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Here’s our Marseille vs Montpellier prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview ahead of the Ligue 1 weekend. French expert Steve Wyss gives his thoughts on crisis-club Marseille as they host Montpellier at Le Stade Vélodrome.
OM sacked Gennaro Gattuso after a 0-1 defeat to Brest last week. Jean-Louis Gasset is taking over on a temporary basis. Can Montpellier take advantage of some poor Marseille form?
Our Marseille vs Montpellier prediction is for a 1-1 draw.
Marseille vs Montpellier Prediction, Team News, Fixtures and Lineups Preview
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 1: Montpellier +0.75 Asian Handicap
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 2: Half Time Draw
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 3: Teji Savanier to Score Anytime
In this article:
- Marseille vs Montpellier Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Marseille vs Montpellier, League Standings Prediction
- Marseille vs Montpellier Match Stats
- Marseille Fixtures
- Montpellier Fixtures
- Safer Gambling
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Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 1: Good time to bet against Marseille
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 25th February, 19:45 (UK)
Marseille are a club in crisis. They have failed to beat anyone domestically in 2024 apart from 4th tier side Thionville in the French Cup and find themselves stuck down in 9th position. They have hit the panic button and sacked Gennaro Gattuso after a poor spell in charge. Jean-Louis Gasset is going to take temporary charge until the end of the season.
Gasset, who was most famously sacked midway through the recent AFCON tournament by Ivory Coast, had to sit and watch them eventually go on to win the competition! The former St Etienne and Bordeaux boss will be keen to make amends here.
Marseille plays this match just three days after a Europa League clash against Shakhtar Donetsk. They were extremely flat last week when they lost 0-1 to Brest, and I think there will be question marks about their performance again here. Montpellier travel in the midst of a relegation battle and are desperate for points.
They beat Metz 3-0 last week, which was a huge relief, but they are only outside of the drop zone by virtue of goal difference. Montpellier are usually quite competitive in this south coast derby and will be fired up. They’ve only lost one of their last eight matches by more than a single goal margin, so backing them on a +0.75 Asian handicap seems like a wise option. They can keep this fixture close with a fairly high likelihood of a draw.
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 1: Montpellier +0.75 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.98
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 9/10
Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 2: Both sides to be cautious in the first half
Montpellier have the lowest number of half-time draws in Ligue 1 this season, but we cashed on them before in this market a few weeks ago vs Lille. The half-time draw is a big price at 2.30, mostly because Marseille are a clear favourite to prevail.
OM are known for producing some sub-standard displays before the interval, though, and nearly half of their games have been level at HT. This could be quite a slow tempo, considering they played just three days ago in Europe, whilst Montpellier will happily feel their way into the match. The crowd will be edgy, and there could be some nerves on show.
I don’t think either side will want to show their hand too early here or over-commit. With a new manager in charge then, Marseille might naturally be more solid anyway. Gasset needs to get to know his players more and would likely be more confident preparing for a second-half attack against Montpellier.
The visitors are going to be happy with a point and should mostly sit back, certainly in the opening exchanges. Both sides are very reactive, so if they fall behind, then they could get back level before the interval if an early goal is scored. A Half-time draw looks like a big price, considering the circumstances and how Marseille matches tend to unfold.
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 2: Draw at Half Time (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.30
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 3: Skillful spot-on Savanier value to hit the back of the net
I wanted to find a value pick and price for this match, and one name sticks out as a potential scorer on the Montpellier side. It was noticeable they won 3-0 last week and dropped Nigerian striker Akor Adams, who has simply missed too many chances this season.
One player who can usually be relied upon is technical maestro Teji Savanier, who is as big as 3.75 to score. He is going to be the man on penalty duty and also on several dangerous free kicks. Savanier was on the scoresheet last week and has now netted five times this season.
Marseille ranks third-fewest for fouls committed in Ligue 1, but with a new manager in charge, I suspect the players might put in a committed performance, and part of the new game plan might be to be more cynical.
The makeup of the Montpellier XI is difficult to predict, but Savanier is a mainstay in the team, so you know you will get reliable minutes from him on the field. He has a stunning 33-3 penalty success rate during his career. Marseille are one of three teams in Ligue 1 yet to concede a spot kick this season, but if he gets a chance from 12 yards, then you know your bet is in reliable hands.
- Marseille vs Montpellier Tip 3: Teji Savanier to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 3.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Marseille vs Montpellier Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:15, February 20th 2024. Odds may now differ.
Marseille vs Montpellier Team News and Possible Lineups: Adams to stay on the Montpellier bench
Montpellier should stick with the tried-and-tested formula that saw them beat Metz 3-0 last week. Striker Akor Adams was dropped to the bench and will likely stay there for this fixture.
The waters are much murkier for Marseille with a new manager at the helm and having to contend with European fixture congestion. One thing we do know is that right-wing back Jonathan Clauss is suspended.
Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez, Merlin, Balerdi, Gigot, Garcia, Luis Henrique, Ounahi, Kondogbia, Harit, Moumbagna, Aubameyang
Montpellier possible starting lineup:
Lecomte, Sagnan, Kouyate, Omeragic, Chotard, Sylla, Savanier, Ferri, Hefti, Al-Tamari, Nordin
The Predicted Marseille vs Montpellier Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Marseille vs Montpellier, currently 9th vs 14th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Marseille vs Montpellier Standings Prediction
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 80.6 | 33.4 | 47.2 | 76.2 |
| 2 | Nice | 34 | 17.8 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 42.5 | 26.1 | 16.4 | 62.5 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 17.1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 61.0 | 45.6 | 15.3 | 59.4 |
| 4 | Brest | 34 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 49.8 | 32.4 | 17.4 | 58.6 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 48.0 | 31.1 | 16.8 | 56.2 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 47.6 | 36.8 | 10.7 | 55.3 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 50.4 | 36.1 | 14.2 | 53.3 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 48.9 | 41.5 | 7.3 | 49.8 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 13.8 | 44.3 | 46.1 | -1.8 | 48.1 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 34 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 38.4 | 44.6 | -6.2 | 43.4 |
| 11 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 39.4 | 44.3 | -4.8 | 38.7 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 37.1 | 44.6 | -7.6 | 38.4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 34 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 16.6 | 39.3 | 54.6 | -15.3 | 38.0 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 17.7 | 36.7 | 54.9 | -18.2 | 35.0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 34 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 15.5 | 34.5 | 50.7 | -16.2 | 33.4 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 17.3 | 40.7 | 65.3 | -24.5 | 30.4 |
| 17 | Metz | 34 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 51.2 | -22.7 | 28.6 |
| 18 | Clermont | 34 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 18.1 | 27.4 | 55.7 | -28.3 | 27.6 |
Match Stats: Where are the wins coming from in Marseille?
- Marseille have only won one match in all competitions since the start of 2024, vs 4th tier side Thionville.
- Marseille remain unbeaten at home this season in Ligue 1 with 6 wins and 5 draws.
- Montpellier’s 3-0 win vs Metz last week was just their second in 13 league games.
- Marseille have the 3rd highest expected points in the league (38.69) and have vastly underachieved.
Marseille Fixtures: Le Classique vs PSG on the horizon
- Vs Clermont (A)
- Vs Nantes (H)
- Vs Rennes (A)
- Vs PSG (H)
- Vs Lille (A)
Montpellier Fixtures: Tough run of immediate games
- Vs Strasbourg (H)
- Vs Nice (A)
- Vs PSG (H)
- Vs Le Havre (A)
- Vs Lorient (H)
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
