Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Welcome to our Marseille vs Atalanta prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. Not many would have predicted this semi-final lineup with Serie A outfit Atalanta shocking everyone by beating Liverpool in the previous round. 

Marseille have endured a turbulent season but managed to get past Benfica on penalty kicks. There is now a massive dangling carrot for both sides to make the Europa League final in Dublin. Soccer expert Steve Wyss explores the best avenues to attack the first leg here at Le Stade Velodrome. 

• Marseille vs Atalanta Tip 1: Over 2.5 Goals
• Marseille vs Atalanta Tip 2: Atalanta 0.0 Asian Handicap
• Marseille vs Atalanta Tip 3: Gianluca Scamacca to Score Anytime

Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 1: Expect an open game in Southern France

UEFA Europa League, Thursday 2nd May 20:00 (UK)

This match is screaming out to contain goals. Atalanta covered the 2.5 goal line all on their own at Anfield in the previous round and are known for their high-scoring matches this season. They average 2.40 goals per game on the road in Europe and carry a potent threat with the likes of Scamacca, Koopmeiners and potentially De Ketelaere. In Serie A, their fixtures average exactly three goals per game and 21 of their 33 games have contained over 2.5 goals. This isn’t a team that is known for keeping clean sheets, failing to shut out their opponents in 11 of the last 13 in all competitions.

Marseille are equally not the sort of side who win to nil very often. Since Jean-Louis Gasset took over at the club they’ve kept just 3 out of 14 clean sheets and relied upon their offense to get them results. I feel like it is merely just a coincidence that their last two home games in Europe have been wins to nil vs Villarreal and Benfica. Both of those sides had enough opportunities and Marseille were lucky on those occasions. 

OM does pack some decent offensive firepower, with Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, in particular, as a significant weapon. They average exactly 2.50 goals per game in home European fixtures. Over 2.5 goals looks generously priced at odds of 1.90. I expect both teams to contribute and the match to be quite open. More nerves might set in for the return leg, but here in Southern France, I expect each side to be positive and on the front foot. 

• Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 1: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 2: Atalanta to show their quality and prevail

Marseille does have a strong home record in Europe, which must be respected, but Atalanta looks like the better of the two teams are deserving favourites to progress to the final. They beat Sporting Lisbon, who look like the Portuguese champions in waiting and then shocked everyone by ousting Liverpool. This is a team that is possibly underrated, even after their exploits against Jurgen Klopp’s men. Atalanta doesn’t have to win this first leg, but it’s a slight surprise they are the underdog. We can get them at odds-against on the 0.0 Asian Handicap line, which looks quite safe.

Marseille beat Benfica here 1-0 recently but more than rode their luck and on another day might have easily come unstuck. The home crowd at the Velodrome will give them a boost but if we are being realistically honest they aren’t even one of the top three sides in France this season. Marseille are languishing down the Ligue 1 table and might not even qualify for Europe. It’s been a turbulent campaign for OM, and it almost feels like a transitional season for the club. It’s been a fantastic achievement for them to make it so far in this competition. I think it’s going to be tricky for Marseille to beat this Atalanta side in the first leg. They are just second-best in terms of pure form, squad quality and depth. It might be all too much for them to handle, so I am happy to side with the Italian visitors on this Asian line with full draw cover.  

• Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 2: Atalanta 0.0 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.05
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 3: Scamacca to continue scoring run

Atalanta’s leading scorer looks overpriced at 3.25 to hit the back of the net here. He tops their scoring charts with 15 goals this season but has been in especially good form since the turn of the year. The Italian has netted at least one goal in seven of his last ten starts and found form at just the right time. He won’t fear anything about this Marseille defence, which has been porous all season and should give up plenty of chances.

It has been especially noticeable how well Gianluca Scamacca has performed in big games recently. He scored in both legs against Sporting Lisbon in the Last 16, in addition to netting twice vs Liverpool at Anfield. Just to top things off then, he managed a goal in the Copa Italia semi-final, facing Fiorentina. He is in red hot form, full of confidence and a huge price to score anytime at 3.25. If Atalanta are to get on the scoresheet, he is definitely the most likely candidate. 

• Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction 3: Gianluca Scamacca to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.25  
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Marseille vs Atalanta Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, April 29th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Marseille vs Atalanta Team News and Possible Lineups: Merlin aiming to be fit for OM

The trio of Pape Gueye, Ulisses Garcia and Jean Onana remain ineligible for Marseille in this competition. Defender Bamo Meite and captain Valentin Rongier are likely ruled out for the whole season. Left back Quentin Merlin is rated doubtful but the hope is he will feature from the start. Atalanta midfielder Emil Holm is ruled out injured and club captain Rafael Toloi is doubtful with a muscle injury. 

Marseille possible starting lineup:
Lopez, Merlin, Gigot, Balerdi, Clauss, Harit, Veretout, Kondogbia, Sarr, Aubameyang, Ndiaye

Atalanta possible starting lineup:
Musso, Kolasinac, Hien, Djimsiti, Ruggeri, Ederson, de Roon, Zappacosta, Koopmeiners, Scamacca, Miranchuk

Match OPTA Stats: Atalanta imperious away from home

• Marseille and Atalanta will meet for the first time in a competitive fixture, with Les Olympiens winless in their last seven meetings with Italian opposition in European competition (D2 L5), since a 1-0 win at home to Internazionale in the 2011-12 UEFA Champions League round of 16. 
• Atalanta will face French opposition in European competition for just the fourth time, after taking four points from Lyon in the 2017-18 UEFA Europa League group stage (1-1 away, 1-0 home), before losing 2-1 to PSG in the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League quarter-final.
• Marseille have reached the semi-finals of a major European competition for the second time in the last three seasons, having been eliminated by Feyenoord at this stage of the 2021-22 UEFA Europa Conference League; the French side have however progressed from all three of their previous appearances in the UEFA Cup/Europa League semi-finals (1998-99, 2003-04, 2017-18), with only Sevilla (7/7) holding a better 100% such record. 
• Atalanta have reached the semi-final stage of a major European competition for just the second time, following the 1987-88 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup where they were eliminated by Belgian side KV Mechelen after losing 2-1 both home and away. Marseille also exited the competition at that stage of the same season (vs. Ajax).
• Marseille have won each of their last five home games in major European competition, their longest such run since March 1999 (6); meanwhile, Les Phocéens have won back-to-back European games at the Stade Vélodrome without conceding for the first time since December 2010 (excl. qualifiers).
• Atalanta average 2.40 goals per game away from home in the Europa League this campaign. Marseille average 2.50 goals per game at home in European competition this season.

Marseille Fixtures: Full focus on the Europa League

• Vs Atalanta (A)
• Vs Lorient H)
• Vs Reims (A)
• Vs Le Havre (A)

Atalanta Fixtures: Double trophy haul a possibility

• Vs Salernitana (A)
• Vs Marseille (H)
• Vs Roma (H)
• Vs Juventus (N)
• Vs Lecce (A)

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