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Boxing Lens vs Monaco Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
Hold up, hold up, we’ve got a Lens vs Monaco prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview for you to peruse. Fresh from a Europa League outing, Lens hosts Monaco in the early Sunday Ligue 1 game in Northern France.
Both sides harbor Champions League qualification ambitions and the result of this match could be crucial. Lens are in better form and Monaco travel here on the back of a hugely disappointing defeat vs Toulouse last week. French expert Steve Wyss breaks down the match with the best betting angles.
Our Lens vs Monaco prediction is for the match to end in a 2-2 draw.
Lens vs Monaco Prediction, Team News, Fixtures and Lineups Preview
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 1: Over 2.75 Goals
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 2: Monaco Draw No Bet
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 3: Wissam Ben Yedder to Score Anytime
In this article:
- Lens vs Monaco Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Lens vs Monaco, Ligue 1 Standings Prediction
- Lens vs Monaco Match Stats
- Lens Fixtures
- Monaco Fixtures
- Safer Gambling
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Lens vs Monaco Tip 1: History of goals points to the overs
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 25th February, 12:00 (UK)
This is nearly always a pulsating clash between two of the better teams in France. Since Lens were promoted back into Ligue 1, seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings have all resulted in over 2.5 goals. The most recent meeting was in the Coupe de France last month, where Monaco prevailed on penalties after a 2-2 draw. Monaco won at this venue 4-2 in the cup last season and beat Lens 3-0 earlier this season in Ligue 1.
We know that Monaco fixtures are known for goals, with only Lorient averaging more goals per game overall. A massive nine of their 11 road matches have resulted in over 2.5 goals. Their style on the road is very aggressive, and they can be dangerous on the break.
Lens are an under team in terms of results, but if we delve beneath the surface, more goals might start brewing for them in the second half of the season. They have underachieved in front of goal by 9.91 xG but, at the other end of the field, have been very lucky. No team in Ligue 1 has a bigger overachievement defensively, with Lens only conceding 21 goals from an xGA of 32.60!
The defence has put bodies on the line, and Brice Samba has been an inspired signing since he came in from Forest. At some stage, you’ve got to think those metrics even themselves out a bit. Over 2.75 goals looks a good bet here in what should be an offensive match containing several chances.
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 1: Over 2.75 Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.02
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Lens vs Monaco Tip 2: Visitors to take advantage of Europa League fatigue
Monaco is not a side that I trust, and I have not been as high on them this season compared to most people. I personally trusted them to beat Toulouse last week, and they let me down badly.
But they did so without two key men who were suspended: Wissam Ben Yedder and Aleksandr Golovin. The impact that both these men have on the team is huge, and they also bring with them a wealth of experience. Monaco has one of the best away records in Ligue 1 and is better suited on the road, where they are often given more space in behind. They won here in the French Cup (on penalties) last month, so they won’t fear travelling to the Bollaert Stadium.
Lens is never an easy nut to crack here, but the footballing schedule definitely hinders them. This will be their fourth game in the space of two weeks, and they play less than 60 hours after featuring in the Europa League away to Freiburg. Manager Franck Haise was forced into several changes last week to rest and rotate the squad.
Maybe he will do the same again, but you have to think that Monaco will have a physical and mental advantage. They didn’t use it last week vs Toulouse, but surely they can learn from that and improve with key men returning. It’s not a comfortable bet, but Monaco DNB looks relatively safe. They should not be losing when they have such factors in their favour.
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 2: Monaco Draw No Bet (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.10
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Lens vs Monaco Tip 3: Ben Yedder to return with a bang
Wissam Ben Yedder was suspended last week, and Monaco badly missed the presence of their top goalscorer. Folarin Balogun is not as clinical this season, and Ben Yedder just has the knack of being in the right position at the right time.
Balogun is seen as the better long-term prospect for the club and might even retain his place up front, but Ben Yedder is a threat even off the bench. He has scored nine goals in his last seven competitive starts, and the week off might have even done him some good to get fully recharged.
I would recommend not voiding this bet if the player fails to start. He is just as dangerous off the bench and will likely be given at least half an hour on the field here, whatever the circumstances. He will be on penalty duty, and his clever runs in behind were what Monaco missed last week.
He is one of the biggest overachieving strikers on xG metrics this season, converting 7.50 xG into 11 goals. This is because he is a high-class finisher and reliable in front of goal. Backing him as an anytime scorer at 2.75 looks like a juicy price, and he will be keen to make his mark following suspension.
- Lens vs Monaco Tip 3: Wissam Ben Yedder to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Lens vs Monaco Prediction odds via bet365 as at 11:25, February 18th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Lens vs Monaco Team News and Possible Lineups: Ben Yedder and Golovin to return?
Monaco badly missed their suspended duo Wissam Ben Yedder and Aleksandr Golovin last week. Both should return to the XI, although there’s a chance Balogun will keep his place upfront, and they will save Ben Yedder as a bench weapon. Mohamed Camara is doubtful with an injury after coming off in the first half last week.
The Lens XI is extremely difficult to predict. They play this game so quickly after the Europa League that anything is possible. Left-back Deiver Machado is doubtful with injury.
Lens possible starting lineup:
Samba, Haidara, Danso, Gradit, Frankowski, El Aynaoui, Diiuf, Aguilar, Costa, Socota, Wahi
Monaco possible starting lineup:
Kohn, Jakobs, Salisu, Maripan, Kehreh, Zakaria, Fofana, Coulibaly, Minamino, Ben Yedder, Golovin
The Predicted Lens vs Monaco, Ligue 1 Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Ligue 1 standings ahead of the Lens vs Monaco, currently 6th vs 5th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Lens vs Monaco Standings Prediction
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris SG | 34 | 22.9 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 80.6 | 33.4 | 47.2 | 76.2 |
| 2 | Nice | 34 | 17.8 | 9.2 | 7.0 | 42.5 | 26.1 | 16.4 | 62.5 |
| 3 | Monaco | 34 | 17.1 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 61.0 | 45.6 | 15.3 | 59.4 |
| 4 | Brest | 34 | 16.1 | 10.2 | 7.6 | 49.8 | 32.4 | 17.4 | 58.6 |
| 5 | Lille | 34 | 14.9 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 48.0 | 31.1 | 16.8 | 56.2 |
| 6 | Lens | 34 | 15.8 | 8.1 | 10.2 | 47.6 | 36.8 | 10.7 | 55.3 |
| 7 | Marseille | 34 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 8.1 | 50.4 | 36.1 | 14.2 | 53.3 |
| 8 | Rennes | 34 | 13.2 | 10.2 | 10.6 | 48.9 | 41.5 | 7.3 | 49.8 |
| 9 | Reims | 34 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 13.8 | 44.3 | 46.1 | -1.8 | 48.1 |
| 10 | Strasbourg | 34 | 11.0 | 10.5 | 12.6 | 38.4 | 44.6 | -6.2 | 43.4 |
| 11 | Montpellier | 34 | 9.2 | 11.2 | 13.7 | 39.4 | 44.3 | -4.8 | 38.7 |
| 12 | Le Havre | 34 | 8.7 | 12.2 | 13.1 | 37.1 | 44.6 | -7.6 | 38.4 |
| 13 | Lyon | 34 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 16.6 | 39.3 | 54.6 | -15.3 | 38.0 |
| 14 | Nantes | 34 | 9.3 | 7.0 | 17.7 | 36.7 | 54.9 | -18.2 | 35.0 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 34 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 15.5 | 34.5 | 50.7 | -16.2 | 33.4 |
| 16 | Lorient | 34 | 6.8 | 9.9 | 17.3 | 40.7 | 65.3 | -24.5 | 30.4 |
| 17 | Metz | 34 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 18.9 | 28.4 | 51.2 | -22.7 | 28.6 |
| 18 | Clermont | 34 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 18.1 | 27.4 | 55.7 | -28.3 | 27.6 |
Match Stats: Over/Under battle rages between contrasting teams
- Lens have the second most under 2.5 goal games in Ligue 1 (14/22).
- Monaco have the second most Over 2.5 goal games in Ligue 1 (15/22).
- Monaco have the second best away record in the division with only two defeats.
- Lens have an xG underperformance of 9.91 in Ligue 1.
Lens Fixtures: Tough run of games for Lens
- Vs Lyon (A)
- Vs Brest (H)
- Vs Nice (H)
- Vs Lille (A)
- Vs Le Havre (H)
Monaco Fixtures: PSG at home next week stands out
- Vs PSG (H)
- Vs Strasbourg (A)
- Vs Lorient (H)
- Vs Metz (A)
- Vs Rennes (H)
SAFER GAMBLING
At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.
