League 1 Betting Odds: Winners, Top Six, Relegation, Top Scorers, Promotion

League 1 Winner Odds, Top Six, Relegation, Top Scorers

The 2022/23 League 1 campaign was as unpredictable as ever, with Sheffield Wednesday’s 96 points being the highest points tally to not gain automatic promotion in League 1 history. With eight former Premier League teams now competing in the third division, it looks more competitive than ever.

In this article:

• Winner Odds: Ex-Premier League duo to battle for the title?
• Top Six Odds: Trotting to the top 6
• Promotion Odds: Happy Valley?
• Top Scorer Odds: Bishop to bless us with goals
• Biggest Longshot Value Odds: 200/1 Omochere to show Promise
• Relegation Odds: Exeter-ing the league

League 1 Winner Odds: Ex-Premier League duo to battle for the title?

At 5.5, Derby County are the bookies favourite for the title. The Rams are a historic club who have spent most of their history in the top two divisions and are managed by Paul Warne, a manager who has won promotion from League 1 three times.

Coming in 7th last season, Derby bragged a fantastic defensive record, only conceding 46 goals. With an improved squad and a perceived weaker league, The Rams are most people’s title favourites. However, I am opposing Warne’s side and instead focusing my attention on an exciting South Coast project.

In January, Portsmouth sporting director Richard Hughes took a monumental risk by appointing Oxford player John Mousinho as the new Pompey manager. The 36-year-old had never coached before in his career, so eyebrows were undoubtedly raised. Mousinho far exceeded expectations by earning 39 points from 23 games to steer Portsmouth to an 8th-place finish after an 11-game unbeaten run to end the campaign.

The former midfielder implemented his style at Portsmouth, favouring a 4-3-3 formation. He has been backed in the summer window, with as many as 12 new faces arriving at Fratton Park. Centre-back Regan Poole joins from Lincoln after being touted for Championship moves. He will partner the talented Ryler Towler at the heart of the defence. 22-year-old Jack Sparkes and 6’3 centre-back Conor Shaughnessy further augment the backline.

Portsmouth also boasts a technically gifted midfield, with players such as Tom Lowery, Marlon Pack, Joe Morrell, and Ben Stevenson to choose from.

Where Mousinho’s side looks strongest is in attack. Colby Bishop’s 20-goal return ranked him third in the goalscoring charts, and with added creativity in the side, there is no reason why Bishop can’t emulate this. Christian Saydee, Kusini Yengi, and Abu Kamara also bolster the attacking ranks. Portsmouth have shown ambition in the window and looked stacked in every area.

While Derby are blessed with a talented squad, they lack a goalscorer, with Conor Washington and James Collins only scoring 16 goals between them last season.

League One is relentless right to the very end, as shown by Plymouth winning nine of their last ten games and only winning the title on the last day. Portsmouth have a deeper and younger squad than Derby, and I feel this is where the title will be won and lost.

• Selection: Portsmouth to win the title
• Odds: 11.0
• Bookmaker: Bet 365
• Stakes: 5/10

League 1 Winner Odds via bet365 as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

League 1 Top Six Odds: Trotting to the top 6

A fifth-place finish for Bolton saw them qualify for the playoffs, but the Trotters fell short due to a semi-final defeat to Barnsley. With a weaker league and strong summer additions, I am backing Ian Evatt’s side to repeat this feat.

Promotion rivals Barnsley have lost manager Michael Duff to Swansea and star defender Mads Anderson to Luton, while Peterborough have lost midfielder Jack Taylor to Ipswich. Posh chairman Darragh MacAnthony indicates it could be a consolidation season. On the other hand, Bolton have had an ambitious window and looks in good shape ahead of the new campaign.

Goalkeeper Nathan Baxter, right-back Josh Dacres-Cogley, centre-back Will Forrester, and forwards Carlos Mendes Gomes and Dan Nlundulu augment the squad, adding to an already talented core of players. Mendes Gomes is a particularly impressive signing, claiming Fleetwood’s top scorer award while on loan last season and also scoring plenty when at Morecambe. He is a quick, explosive winger with an eye for goal.

In terms of the current squad, the aerially dominant Ricardo Santos and the young duo of Will Forrester and Eoin Toal make a fantastic back three.

Aaron Morley and Kyle Dempsey add creativity and tenacity from midfield, with Mendes Gomes likely to add goals from the No. 10 role.

Dion Charles has scored 43 league goals over the past three seasons and will benefit from the extra creativity around him now.

All in all, Bolton has a talented squad with defensive stability and goals in abundance. The trotters have finished higher than the previous campaign in Evatt’s three seasons in charge. Repeat that again, and Bolton will comfortably finish in the top six. Elsewhere on bettingexpert, it’s good to see Bolton clinching top six over in Sam Ingram‘s article on his Top Five Outrights – both thinking along the same lines, then.

• Selection: Bolton to make the top six
• Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: SkyBet
• Stakes: 10/10

League 1 Top Six Odds via Skybet as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

League 1 Promotion Odds: Happy Valley?

After three consecutive seasons finishing outside the playoffs, Charlton fans would be forgiven for thinking their side was condemned to League 1 football for the foreseeable future. However, with a string of shrewd signings and a takeover of the club complete, good times are returning to south-east London.

The 2022–23 season was uneventful for the Addicks, with Dean Holden’s side finishing 10th, 15 points off the playoffs, and 17 points off relegation. The 43-year-old has overseen a clearout, and Charlton’s squad looks in great shape ahead of the upcoming campaign.

The defence was a significant weakness for the Addicks, who conceded 66 goals in 46 games. Holden has addressed this, signing Cambridge player of the season Lloyd Jones and Blackburn left-back Tayo Edun. The signing of ex-Chelsea centre-back in January saw an upturn in form, while youngster Lucas Ness has emerged as a fine ball-playing left centre-back.

Scott Fraser scored nine goals from midfield and will have further scope for his late darts into the box thanks to the addition of box-to-box midfielder Panuchte Camara. A double pivot of Camara and the tough-tackling George Dobson looks to be the envy of the rest of the league and allows Fraser to further demonstrate his attacking output.

Goals weren’t a problem last season, as Charlton dispatched 70. Alfie May has been signed from Cheltenham after 43 goals in two seasons and will further improve Charlton’s attacking options.
Holden has addressed the defensive issues, strengthened the midfield, and added a 20-goal striker. I would be very surprised if his side were not in the top six, and I feel the 5/1 (6.0) for promotion is very generous.

• Selection: Charlton to be promoted
• Odds: 6.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

League 1 Promotion Odds via bet365 as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

League 1 Top Scorer Odds: Bishop to bless us with goals

The next market under the microscope is the top goalscorer market. Last season, Ipswich’s Conor Chaplin swept up the award with 26 goals. With him now playing in the Championship, who will step up and take the goalscoring crown in the upcoming campaign?

Colby Bishop finished joint fourth in the rankings behind now-Championship player Conor Chaplin, Jonson Clark-Harris, and League Two-David McGoldrick. Of these three, only Clark-Harris still plays in League One, and his future is up in the air.

With 20 goals, Bishop was only six off Chaplin while playing in a much weaker side. With Portsmouth seriously strengthening in the summer, Bishop should have plenty more chances of finding the net. He played in every game last season, starting 45. He is also on penalty-taking duty.

The 26-year-old generated an XG of 0.37 per 90, putting him in the 95th percentile for this metric compared to other League 1 players. Bishop tended to perform away from home, scoring 14 goals at an XG of 0.62 per game, compared to 6 goals at home with a 0.28 XG per game. If he can sort out his home form, expect Bishop to emulate his 20-goal season.
Pompey’s marksman is also a keen shooter, averaging 1.72 shots per game, with 0.39 on target.

As mentioned, Bishop is now playing for a much improved Portsmouth. Add this to the fact that Jonson Clark-Harris is facing an uncertain future at Peterborough, and league favourites Derby do not have a clinical striker in their ranks due to the departure of David Mcgoldrick, and Bishop should have a clear run at the top scorer accolade.

• Selection: Colby Bishop Top Scorer
• Odds: 10.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

League 1 Top Scorer Odds via bet365 as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

League 1 Biggest Longshot Value Odds: 200/1 Omochere to show Promise

Fleetwood had a solid first season under Scott Brown, finishing in a comfortable 13th place. They showed plenty of promise throughout the season and caught the eye with a group of talented youngsters. Speaking of promise, 22-year-old winger Promise Omochere is my value longshot selection.

While the Irishman only scored five goals last campaign, he only started 15 games. He averaged 0.33 goals per 90 minutes, putting him in the 89th percentile in League 1. He also averaged 0.26 XG p90, ranking him in the 88th percentile.

As is expected for a youngster playing their first season in English football, Omochere took a while to settle in, waning in and out of the side. However, at the turn of the year, he saw an upturn in form, scoring seven goals in 12 starts in all competitions.

Often deployed on the right of a front three, 6″2 Omochere is strong, quick, and good in the air. He is a handful for defenders and is also capable of playing as a striker. With Jayden Stockley and Jack Marriott struggling for regular minutes in recent seasons, don’t be surprised to see Omochere leading the line for The Cod Army at some points.

As mentioned before, the pool of League 1 goalscorers looks low compared to other seasons, so Omochere is well worth a poke in the goalscoring markets at the chunky prices (200/1) being quoted.

• Selection: Promise Omochere top scorer
• Odds: 201.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10 (2.5 each way)

League 1 Biggest Longshot Value Odds via bet365 as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

League 1 Relegation Odds: Exeter-ing the league

A 14th-place finish in Exeter’s first season back in League One demonstrated a solid return to the third division for the Grecians. However, with key players departing, things don’t look promising for the Devon side.

Star goalkeeper Jamal Blackman has joined Burton and is replaced by Villa loanee Viljami Sinisalo, who endured a shaky loan spell at Burton. Young full-back duo Josh Key and Jack Sparkes have joined Swansea and Portsmouth, respectively. In midfield, star man Archie Collins has been snapped up by Peterborough, while Jevani Brown, who recorded 21 goal contributions in 24 games, was released due to off-field controversies. On top of this, Jay Stansfield honoured his father’s memory by scoring nine goals in a fruitful loan spell from Fulham.

In terms of incomings, Exeter have signed three Premier League loanees Vijami Sinsialo, Ryan Trevitt, and Dion Rankine, with the latter two yet to experience first-team football. Jack Aitchson is a fantastically gifted attacking midfielder who signs from Motherwell; however, he has only scored eight career league goals, so he is not the goalscorer they need. Defensively, Zak Jules signs to play centre-back after looking poor in a relegated MK Dons side.

Granted, The Grecians boast some fantastic players, such as Alex Hartridge, Harry Kite, and clinical goalscorer Sam Nombe, who scored 15 goals last season. However, due to the abundance of outgoings, I feel the 4/1 price for relegation on offer from William Hill is generous, especially if Nombe leaves.

• Selection: Exeter to get relegated
• Odds: 5.00
• Bookmaker: William Hill
• Stakes: 7/10

League 1 Relegation Odds via William Hill as at 07:33, 31st July, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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