Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Matchday 27 in Serie A begins this Friday with a big match and we’ve prepared Lazio vs AC Milan prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview courtesy, as always, of our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella. How much will Lazio’s focus be affected by the second leg of the Champions League’s Round of 16 against Bayern next Tuesday?

AC Milan hold a healthy lead on Atalanta, currently in fifth place, and might consider making changes to the starting eleven.

Our Lazio vs AC Milan prediction is for a 1-1 draw.

Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction, Team News, Lineups and Fixtures Preview

1. Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes
2. Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 2: AC Milan Asian Handicap -0.25
3. Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 3: Match Result: Draw

In this article:

• Lazio vs AC Milan Team News and Possible Lineups
• The Lazio vs AC Milan, Serie A Standings Prediction
• Lazio vs AC Milan Match Stats
• Lazio Fixtures
• AC Milan Fixtures
• Safer Gambling

Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 1: Rossoneri’s defensive numbers are worrying

Italy, Serie A, Friday, March 1st, 19:45 (UK)

After last weekend, both sides have lost ground on their direct rivals but produced opposite performances.

AC Milan, who haven’t won any of their last three matches in all competitions, deserved more than just the point they achieved against Atalanta.

Stefano Pioli’s men took charge of the game from the beginning, played with good intensity and forced the Orobici to make many mistakes in possession.

Rafael Leao (two goals in his last two appearances) and Theo Hernandez looked particularly inspired last Sunday and carried a constant threat on the left-hand side.

But even during a match that the Rossoneri controlled for large spells, their usual defensive frailties emerged as once again they conceded a penalty.

It was the third kick from the spot that AC Milan gave away in the last three games and the eleventh (in all competitions) of their campaign so far.

The visitors have conceded in nine of their last 10 games and have got only the 11th defensive record in Serie A.

Injuries to key players such as Tomori, Kalulu and Thiaw (now fully recovered) haven’t helped, but AC Milan have highlighted a clear difficulty at managing games.

• Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 2: hosts don’t impose their style anymore

Away from home, only Cagliari, Sassuolo and Frosinone have conceded more goals than the Rossoneri (24 in total, with only one clean sheet in the last 11 trips).

On Monday night, Lazio looked simply too bad to be true. Maurizio Sarri’s men left almost entirely the initiative to Fiorentina and were rightly defeated (xG 3.61 for La Viola against 0.61 for Lazio) after they took an unexpected lead with their first and only shot on target.

The tactic used against Bayern Munich and Torino did not pay off at the Artemio Franchi, and the defeat left Lazio in eighth place, eight points behind Bologna.

The hosts have been extremely inconsistent this campaign (they’ve won just two of the last eight games in all competitions), and their main strength has been being able to manage the tight margins during matches.

Ten teams in Serie A, including newly promoted Frosinone, have scored more than Lazio, whose Over 2.5 Goals record is one of the lowest in Italy’s top flight (only 11 games, 42% of the total).

It is unlikely the Biancocelesti will press AC Milan high; in fact, Sarri has long abandoned this approach to focus more on defensive organisation and quick counterattacks.

Of the 19 games Lazio has played this season against top sides, both in Italy and Europe, 11 have produced less than 2.5 goals.

• Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 2: AC Milan Asian Handicap -0.25 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker:
• Stake: 6/10

Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 3: draws don’t come easy

The first goal might be decisive, considering that Lazio (3) and AC Milan (4) are among the teams that have rescued fewer points from a losing position this season.

The hosts don’t have a deep squad and have struggled to play every three days. In fact, they have recently been defeated by Bologna and Fiorentina after their wins to nil at the expense of Bayern and Torino.

Turnover hasn’t worked very well for Stefano Pioli either, as the recent 4-2 defeat at Monza testifies.

AC Milan is almost certain to qualify for next season’s Champions League and must honour the Europa League to save their season.

Lazio has almost a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to win a Champions League knockout tie for the first time by taking advantage of Bayern Munich’s crisis.

Both teams have drawn three games apiece at home (Lazio) and away (AC Milan), but the two clubs have shared the points only once (0-0 in February 2019) in the last 13 meetings.

• Lazio vs AC Milan Tip 3: Match Result: Draw (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 3.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Lazio vs AC Milan Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:30, February 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Lazio vs AC Milan Team News and Possible Lineups: will Sarri’s focus be on Bayern?

Mattia Zaccagni might replace Gustav Isaksen for Lazio, with Ciro Immobile and Felipe Anderson confirmed up-front. Given Lazio’s important game next week, there will also be space for Castellanos, Vecino and Pedro in due course.

Lazzari and Hysaj are in contention for a start at right back, whereas Gila will replace Casale at centre-back.

“I hope Vecino and Zaccagni are fully recovered now, but with Patric and Rovella, I don’t know, we cannot make predictions right now,” said Maurizio Sarri after Lazio’s 2-1 defeat in Firenze.

“Unfortunately, this murderous run of fixtures will continue. I can only hope that we can rest some players at some point to get them into better physical and mental condition.”

For AC Milan, Reijndeers will play in midfield in place of Adli, and Kjaer could replace Gabbia at centre-back. Jovic is still suspended, and Pobega is out until mid-April due to an injury.

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Provedel; Lazzari, Romagnoli, Gila, Marusic; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Luis Alberto; Felipe Anderson, Immobile, Zaccagni

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Thiaw, Kjaer, Hernandez; Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud

The Predicted Lazio vs AC Milan Serie A Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Lazio vs AC Milan, currently 8th vs 3rd, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Lazio vs AC Milan Standings Prediction

Match Stats: a one-sided fixture lately

• There have been no draws in the last 12 matches between Lazio and AC Milan
• The visitors have won five of the last six games against the Biancocelesti
• Sixteen out of 26 (62%) AC Milan games in Serie A have produced Over 2.5 Goals
• Lazio have the second worst home attack in Italy’s top flight with only 13 goals scored.
• Lazio’s 12 games played at the Olimpico this campaign have produced only 22 goals (the worst record alongside Torino).

Lazio Fixtures: back-to-back against Juve

• Vs Bayern Munich, Champions League (A)
• Vs Udinese (H)
• Vs Frosinone (A)
• Vs Juventus (H)
• Vs Juventus, Coppa Italia (A)

AC Milan Fixtures: three consecutive away games

• Vs Slavia Prague, Europa League (H)
• Vs Empoli (H)
• Vs Slavia Prague, Europa League (A)
• Vs Verona (A)
• Vs Fiorentina (A)

SAFER GAMBLING

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