Jimmy The Punt’s Top Four Outright Best Bets 2023/24: A 200/1 and the greatest squad ever

It’s that time of the season. The outright articles are mounting up, as are the wildly-biased views of the season ahead from every single football fan up and down the country.

Here, we’ve got an Englishman capable of a personal accolade, one of the greatest squads ever (kind of), Owls struggling to take flight, and a longshot top goalscorer punt. What more could you want?

In this article:

• Premier League – Top Goalscorer Outright
• Premier League – PFA Player of the Year Outright
• The Championship – To Finish Bottom Outright
• National League North – Winners Outright

Premier League Top Goalscorer Outright: No Toney, no problem?

England, Premier League, Top Goalscorer

I said it last season and was made to look like a fool, but there is value to be had in the Premier League goalscorer market, especially when the favourite is 1.83.
Yes, that player is Erling Haaland, the man who scored 36 league goals last season, but he played a lot of football in that treble-winning campaign, and I am not convinced he’ll last the season here.

Let’s say Haaland does; he bags another hatful and makes me look at a mug. It is not the end of the world, as I will be looking to nick a bit of place money here.

Betvictor are paying out ¼ of the odds to fourth place. Over the last four seasons, 20 goals would have been enough to slot into fourth place on the goalscorer list, with 17 goals hitting the quota in two of those seasons.

So, to make this selection, I have just gone down to the three-digit section on Oddschecker and found an excuse to back a player.

Bryan Mbeumo is the player in question. Brentford’s frontman priced at a cool 201.00 to top the goalscoring charts.

In the absence of Ivan Toney at the back end of last season, the frontman scored a flurry of goals, scoring three and setting up two more in the Bee’s last three matches, staking his claim to fill the void left by Brentford’s top goalscorer.

With Toney unavailable until January 2024, who is to say Mbeumo does not continue to flourish in his absence and bag a hatful?

• Selection: Bryan Mbeumo Top Goalscorer (TRACKED)
• Odds: 201.00
• Bookmaker: Betvictor
• Stakes: 5/10

Premier League – PFA Player of the Year Outright: How high is his ceiling?

England, Premier League, PFA Player of the Year

Jurgen Klopp’s stint at Liverpool has had peaks and troughs over the last few campaigns. The Reds won their sixth Champions League title in 2019, then lifted the league title the following season, racking up 99 points. A dip to third then followed, with 30 fewer points won. The next campaign saw them on the cusp of a quadruple, only to capitulate on the home straight. And last season was their worst points tally (67) since the German supremo took charge eight seasons ago.

There has been a bit of a rebuild at Anfield this summer, and I have a feeling we will see some vast improvements on the last campaign. Klopp moved on the players where necessary and looked to rebuild the midfield. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain, James Milner, Naby Keita and Roberto Firmino have all left. The signatures of Dominik Szoboszlai and Alexis Mac Allister have been secured for a combined fee of over £100m.

Klopp experimented playing Trent Alexander-Arnold in a hybrid role towards the back end of last campaign, and given his technical ability, who’s to say how high his ceiling is?

Since the 4-1 defeat at the Etihad, TAA set up seven goals in 10 league appearances, made 23 key passes and scored away at Leicester, doubling his goals tally for the season and taking his assists per 90 from 0.09 to 0.70.

If TAA is to continue in this role and Liverpool does improve as expected, there is certainly an excuse to back Alexander-Arnold to win the PFA Player of the Year Award.

• Selection: Trent Alexander-Arnold PFA Player of the Year
• Odds: 34.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stakes: 5/10

The Championship To Finish Bottom Outright: A case of reputation preceding the cold, hard facts

England, Championship, To Finish Bottom

If you are after something with a bit of juice, Sheffield Wednesday to finish bottom of the Championship should tickle your fancy at 19.00. That price with Sky Bet, Paddy Power and Betfair certainly stands out, considering the same bet is as short as 10.00 elsewhere.

It looks to me to be a case of a reputation preceding the cold, hard facts. And the facts are the Owls barely have a squad, and the chairman has employed an 11th different manager as he begins only his 9th season in charge of the club.

Sheffield Wednesday’s escape from the third tier was nothing short of incredible. Their tally of 96 points should have been enough to ensure their return to the Championship, and it would have been half of the previous ten completed seasons as champions.

The psychological impact of the campaign seemed to have quashed their playoff chances, Peterborough putting four past them in the first leg. The Owls record-breaking comeback reached all corners of the globe in the second leg, though, and galvanised the group ahead of the final, an all South Yorkshire affair. Wednesday won it in the most dramatic fashion, Josh Windass breaking Barnsley hearts in the 120+3 minute of extra time.

Since then, Darren Moore has left the club, and poor contract management has left the squad lacking serious depth. Dejphon Chansiri has spent the summer kiboshing the momentum generated last season, and with him at the helm, it is hard to see the fortunes of the club changing. It’s a line of thinking mirrored in Jack Wright’s Ante-Post Championship Betting Preview for 2023/24 – no surprises I’m not the only one unsure of Wednesday’s chances considering how the summer has unravelled.

• Selection: Sheffield Wednesday to Finish Bottom
• Odds: 19.00
• Bookmaker: Betfair, Paddy Power & Sky Bet
• Stakes: 5/10

National League North – Winners Outright: assembling one of the greatest squads ever to grace the division

England, National League North, Winner

The final selection comes via the sixth tier of the English pyramid.

I think that the lines between divisions are becoming increasingly blurred.

In the Premier League, Brentford and Brighton are two sides that have established themselves quickly amongst the elite; Luton have enjoyed a meteoric rise through the divisions, and Coventry, also not long since rejoining the second tier, almost reached the promised land.

Fall through the trap door, and you stand the risk of getting stuck in a quagmire. League One has been a giant’s graveyard for a few seasons now, boasting the likes of Sheffield Wednesday, Ipswich Town, Bolton, Sunderland and Derby Country recently.

It is no different in the Conference North. The consensus is if you do not make it out on the first attempt, you better make yourself comfortable because you will be there for a while.

Haunted by this prospect, Scunthorpe has set about assembling one of the greatest squads ever to grace the division, nitpicking the best talent from the division and the league above. Former Newcastle winger Callum Roberts is the marquee signing.

Scunny is available at 3.75 to win the division, which is a price certainly worth taking on.

The only caveat, and it is a bit of a big one, is the uncertainty surrounding the very future of the club as HMRC have served them with a winding-up petition. If they can weather that storm, I think we are onto a winner.

• Selection: Scunthorpe to win National League North
• Odds: 3.75
• Bookmaker: Betway
• Stakes: 10/10

Odds via various as at 13:40 July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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