Football 
Tennis 
Horse Racing 
Boxing Jack Wright’s Top Five Outright Best Bets 2023-24: Unwise To Overlook The Lower Leagues
In the blink of an eye, the close season in English football is nearly over, and we are fast approaching the most eagerly-anticipated time of the year. The EFL roars back into action on Friday, August 4th.
Ahead of that date, though, it’s time to give you my top five outright bets for the upcoming campaign, with a particular focus on League One and League Two.
In this article:
- English League One – Top Goalscorer Outright
- English League Two – Winner Outright
- English League Two – Top Goalscorer Outright
- English League Two – Relegation Outright
- Regional Winner Outright ACCA
League One Top Goalscorer Outright: Alfie to be at the top of the pile come May
England, League One, Top Goalscorer
Before coming to my selection, let me explain why I am looking to oppose the man the bookies have as the frontrunner to scoop the Golden Boot in the English third tier.
The market is led by Jonson Clarke-Harris, which is not a surprise. The 29-year-old is a proven performer over course and distance, having won the award in each of his last two campaigns at this level. Peterborough’s hitman plundered 31 goals in the promotion season of 2020-21, sharing the spoils with Conor Chaplin last term after hitting the back of the net 26 times.
However, Clarke-Harris is in the final year of his contract and is officially on the transfer list. There is a chance he could leave before the summer window closes, as I’m sure Barry Fry will not want to see him depart for free. Equally a similarly prolific start to this season, as he had last term, could see him as a man in demand come January.
Posh will also have to overcome the heartbreak of surrendering their 4-0 first-leg advantage in last season’s Play-Off semi-final and the absence of the influential Jack Taylor. The good news is having such a warm favourite in this market provides some excellent prices elsewhere.
Cole an attractive prospect at 40/1
I was very tempted to put Cole Stockton forward at 41.00 and certainly wouldn’t put anyone off an each-way interest. The 29-year-old bagged 23 times in the 2021/22 season, with only Sunderland’s Ross Stewart in the Championship and Will Keane of Wigan scoring more.
His return of 11 goals last year was slightly disappointing, but he ended by firing in seven in his last four games. All of those came for a struggling Morecambe side who were ultimately relegated.
After scoring 52 goals in 152 league games for the Shrimps, Stockton will now ply his trade at Burton. It’s a side I expect to outperform expectations this season and a team I like for a top-half finish (2.88).
That move reunites the striker with manager Dino Maamria with the pair working together in 2015. The Brewers boss has complete confidence in his new signing and will utilise him as a spearhead for his side.
May to manoeuvre out in front come May
However, in the end, I couldn’t overlook Alfie May at 17.00. Charlton beat a host of EFL sides to snap up the prolific striker from Cheltenham Town.
Despite playing for one of the lesser lights in League One, who have been nearer the bottom of the table than the top, the recently turned 30-year-old has a phenomenal scoring record at this level. The Robins’ Player of the Year has scored 43 league goals over the last two campaigns hitting at least 20 in both.
Addicks manager Dean Holden is delighted to have gotten his man. Praising May not only as a proven goalscorer but also for his work rate and character.
While for the Gravesend-born player, it is a move closer to his roots and a move he has gone on record to say means a lot. A happy player off the pitch generally leads to them being able to perform at their best on it.
With SE7 Partners having completed their takeover of the South London club, the future looks bright. Outgoing CEO Peter Storrie had already explained their top six ambitions before the completion of the deal.
If Charlton are to be challenging at the top end of the division as expected, much of that will be down to Alfie May’s goals. Dean Holden knows he needs to provide his marksman with a proficient strike partner and a steady supply line from midfield. May will take care of the rest.
- Selection: Alfie May – League One Top Goalscorer Outright (Each Way) (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 17.00
- Bookmaker: Coral
- Stakes: 8/10
League Two Winner Outright: Milton Keynes to go full circle and return to the third tier
England, League Two, Winner Outright
Eyes that have never before laid on the English fourth tier will suddenly be fixed on it intently. This is, of course, because Ryan Reynolds and Rob McIlhenny-owned Wrexham gained promotion from the National League last term. They bring no small measure of media attention and a healthy dollop of Hollywood to every Red Dragons fixture this season.
Phil Parkinson’s men have immediately been installed as favourites to win back-to-back titles at a best-priced 4.50. In a display of just how strong the fifth tier is, the side they edged out in an epic battle to the wire, Notts County, are third favourites (9.00). Both should perform well at the top end of the league.
As should the side that separates them in the betting, last season’s losing play-off finalists Stockport County. Not only have the Hatters kept the core of the side together that finished one place outside automatic promotion last term, but they have made an eye-catching addition from the Championship. Keep Nick Powell fit, and it would be a surprise if they weren’t challenging.
For my selection here, though, I am looking at a side that have entered the league from the opposite direction. MK Dons were relegated on the final day of the 2022/23 campaign after a 0-0 draw with Burton. Cambridge leap-frogged them following a 2-0 defeat of Forest Green to escape the drop.
A massive disappointment for a club gracing the Championship as recently as 2016 and finished 3rd in League One in 2021/22. As a result, Mark Jackson was dismissed, having picked up only six wins from his 25 games in charge.
Long-standing Chairman Pete Winkelman admitted to being “devastated” at seeing his club slip back to the fourth tier for the first time since their promotion from it in 2018-19, immediately vowing to make the “right decision” and take a “lot less risk” with the next managerial appointment.
That vow was fulfilled with Graham Alexander accepting the task of getting the Dons back to League One at the first time of asking. The Scot is a two-time promotion-winning manager, most recently leading Motherwell to Europa Conference League qualification in 2021/22.
The 51-year-old has 439 games on his managerial CV, including 370 in English football with Fleetwood Town, Scunthorpe United and Salford City. He has a respectable win ratio of 44% in England and, crucially for this selection, has reached the Play-Offs with all three EFL clubs he has been in charge of.
An infrastructure including a 30,000-seater stadium is clearly designed to operate at a higher level than this. After a shrewd managerial appointment and a couple of tidy pieces of player recruitment, the 19.00 on offer currently looks excellent each-way value.
A trip to Wrexham to open their campaign couldn’t make for a more challenging start, but as a relegated side going into the season curtain-raiser as the underdog could work in their favour. Equally, bring a positive result back from the Welsh valleys, and MK will certainly be added to the promotion contenders list with that initial quote much shorter.
- Selection: MK Dons – League Two Winner Outright (Each Way) (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 19.00
- Bookmaker: Coral
- Stakes: 7/10
League Two Top Goalscorer Outright: Hot-Shot ready to star for Red Dragons in top-goalscorer sequel
England, League Two, Top Goalscorer
Edit – Before you carry on, I thought it was important to note that Paul Mullin suffered a punctured lung in a preseason friendly against Manchester United around 24 hours after writing the following top goalscorer fancy – sod’s law, right? The length of his absence is unknown, so tread carefully if taking this on. It may be best to wait a week or two until we are clearer on Mullin’s condition.
I mentioned earlier in this piece about the course and distance form, referring to Jonson Clarke-Harris and the fact he had won the League One Golden Boot on two previous occasions.
Having gone against that form line in that instance, I am embracing it for the League Two heat. Paul Mullin topped the League Two scoring charts in 2020-21 when he fired Cambridge to promotion on the back of his 32 goals.
That number is the most ever scored by a player in League Two; the 28-year-old notched two hat-tricks and six braces along the way.
In a decision that caused widespread surprise at the time, Mullin rejected a new contract from the League One U’s choosing to drop down to join Wrexham in the National League instead. Since then, he has become a club hero, plundering 66 goals in his two seasons with the Welsh outfit.
Mullin had an epic battle throughout last season with Notts County’s Macaulay Langstaff, who did outscore him in the end with a final tally of 42 goals. Langstaff is second in the market at 9.00, but this will be his first campaign in League football at age 26. That price is too short, given the question mark over whether the Magpies number nine will find goals so easy to come by at this level.
The acquisition of David McGoldrick, fourth favourite in this market at 12.00, is a coup for newly-promoted County but raises the concern that he will take a fair slice of the goals pie.
Last season’s fourth-tier top scorer Andy Cook of Bradford splits the two teammates at 10.00. His 28 goals is his best haul by some distance, more than double the total he managed in 2018/19 when he hit the back of the net 13 times for Walsall, albeit in League One.
With question marks remaining over his closest rivals, it leads me back to Mullin. As I have already mentioned, his Wrexham side is expected to challenge at the top of the table. We should see plenty of wins and goals along the way, with the man from Merseyside playing a crucial part in that.
- Selection: Paul Mullin – League Two Top Goalscorer Outright (Each Way) (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 7.50
- Bookmaker: William Hill
- Stakes: 10/10
League Two Relegation Outright: Nothing cryptic about Town decline as they crawl towards dreaded drop
England, League Two, Relegation Outright.
The League Two relegation market is one I have had regular success with over recent seasons. Scunthorpe and Hartlepool duly obliged in the last two campaigns.
It is often relatively straightforward to compile a shortlist of no more than six sides that should contest the relegation fight over the season. This list typically consists of clubs that have owners that are either mad or have found themselves out of their depth.
The loss of key players and inability to recruit well, given the constraints many clubs find themselves under in the lower reaches of England’s fourth tier, and managerial upheaval are all red flags. This, to me, always seems to be a market of few surprises, with the bookies pricing this up pretty accurately.
So which of the six favourites to fill one of the two relegation places stand out to me? This season it has to be Crawley Town.
Fans generally know when the team they support are in trouble. A quick scroll down The Red Devils’ Twitter feed tells you all you need to know is that there is a fear, if not resignation, that this will likely be the year they drop through the trapdoor.
On April 7th last year Wagmi United LLC, a group of US cryptocurrency investors, acquired the club. The following month manager John Yems left the club amid allegations of racist behaviour which subsequently led to him being banned from football until January 2026.
Highly rated coach Kevin Betsy took charge, but just one win and eight defeats from his opening 12 league games saw his reign abruptly end. His replacement Matthew Etherington resigned just before Christmas after 34 days in the hot seat.
Under the headline “How Crawley crumbled under owners’ reckless leadership”, The Guardian ran a piece citing that in their research, the word “shambles” came up a lot when talking to people about the club. Amongst many other oddities highlighting the time caretaker manager Darren Byfield was joined in the dugout by co-chairman Preston Johnson who then asked the fourth official at half-time how subs work.
Current manager Scott Lindsey took over in January and, against all odds, guided the team to safety, finishing one place and three points clear of the drop zone.
I cannot see them being so fortunate this time around. Key players have departed, the latest of which being Aramide Oteh. At the time of writing, the recruitment at Crawley Town looks very poor on paper.
A 9-1 pre-season loss to Portsmouth certainly has the alarm bells ringing ahead of the season’s opener against losing play-off semi-finalists Bradford. Lindsey claimed the second period was good for him because “it showed that some of the players are not good enough to be part of my squad. There were certain individuals in that second period who didn’t want to be there; they didn’t want to run, so, unfortunately, they can’t play for me.”
I am surprised that Crawley are not favourites to go down, so the 4.50 on offer looks too big to me.
- Selection: Crawley Town To Be Relegated (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 4.50
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stakes: 10/10
Regional Winner Outright ACCA: Leading lights from the UK’s top four tiers add up to a nice price
England, Premier League, Championship, League One, League Two, Regional Winners
My final selection involves four teams that are far too short in price to put forward individually. However, they look like a rock-solid selection at 5.06 when combined.
This utilises the Regional Winner market that most firms offer. But a note of caution each region can contain different clubs depending on who you use. This selection is advised with bet365.
First up is my Premier League pick, and it is from the “Top Midlands Club” market. The section contains Aston Villa, who are my preference, Wolves and Nottingham Forest. Villa must finish above both for this selection to come up trumps.
The Villains are upwardly mobile under the excellent Unai Emery, with the Spaniard turning a side flirting with relegation into one that qualified for Europe by finishing seventh.
Nottingham Forest avoided relegation last term and would take a season of consolidation, while I fear for Wolves following the departure of Ruben Neves. Another Spanish manager saved them last term, but if rumours of Julen Lopetegui’s discontent are true, it could be a long, arduous season for the Old Gold at the wrong end of the table.
Into the Championship, and it’s Leeds to be the top Yorkshire club. With new owners in place and Championship cheat code Daniel Farke now the man in charge at Elland Road, anything other than a promotion challenge would be a massive disappointment.
They are tasked to finish above Sheffield Wednesday, Hull, Huddersfield and Rotherham. Three-quarters of those rivals will likely be in a relegation battle, but none are expected to realistically have the same aspirations as the newly relegated side.
League One title favourites Derby are next. They’ll need to see off the challenge of Lincoln, Burton, Port Vale, Shrewsbury, and Northampton to be Top Midlands Club.
Paul Warne is a highly respected manager who worked wonders at Rotherham. It didn’t quite click last season at Pride Park, missing out on the play-offs due to a final-day defeat – an outcome the straight-talking Warne called a “failure”.
There seems to be a steely determination to put that right this term. Even a top-six finish should be enough to win this leg of the acca.
Finally, into League Two, and it is last season’s fourth-placed team and losing play-off finalists Stockport, pitched here to be the top North West Club.
That means finishing above Crewe and Morecambe, who are third and fourth favourites for relegation. Additionally, Stokport will need to outdo a Barrow side that overachieved in 9th last season and would likely sign for a similar campaign this time around, and a relegated Accrington, who appear to be set for a season of transition and acclimatisation but nothing more. Next, Tranmere, who were slap bang in the middle of the pack last term, will likely be placed similarly come May 2024.
Last, but not least, it’s Salford who will most likely cause us a headache. The Ammies made the play-offs last season after sneaking into them on goal difference. However, they usually find a way to fall just short, so I’m happy to take them on here with a County side that started their last campaign very slowly. Rectify that and expect a more significant gap between these two sides than last season’s four points.
- Selection: Regional Winner Acca: Aston Villa, Leeds, Derby, and Stockport (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 5.06
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stakes: 10/10
Odds via Coral, William Hill and bet365 as at 12:00 July 25th 2023. Odds may now differ.
What are Football Best Bets?
Our best bets are posted by some of the best tipsters around. These are our tipsters best value bets. A best bet can be placed on any number of different markets. The most common of which are 1X2, the Asian handicap, BTTS, and the goals markets. Value can be found in matches from leagues across the world. Be sure to follow bettingexpert for the latest best bets.
