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Horse Racing History Says.....Stay Away From the Front of the Market at the World Cup
Has it been profitable to bet against World Cup tournament favourites? How have the nations at the front of the outright winner betting market performed?
In this article:
- Betting Against the Front of the Market
- Betting on Tournament Favourites
- Historical World Cup Winner Odds
In this analysis I will be looking at the performance of nations at the front of World Cup outright betting. By ‘front of the market’ I am talking about nations entering the World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0. I will be looking at how these nations performed in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets before looking at how tournament favourites performed in the same markets.
Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.
I will then close the article by looking through the history of World Cup winner odds from 2002 through the 2018 tournament.
Betting Against the Front of the Market
Let’s jump straight into it. First let’s take a look at how nations at the front of the market have performed at World Cups.
Across the last five World Cups (since 2002), there have been 16 nations that have entered a World Cup campaign at shorter than odds of 10.0. These are:
Table 1: Nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002
| World Cup | Nation | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Argentina | 6.0 |
| 2002 | Italy | 8.0 |
| 2002 | France | 9.0 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 4.0 |
| 2010 | Spain | 5.50 |
| 2010 | Brazil | 6.0 |
| 2010 | England | 7.80 |
| 2010 | Argentina | 8.30 |
| 2014 | Brazil | 4.90 |
| 2014 | Argentina | 6.40 |
| 2014 | Germany | 7.40 |
| 2014 | Spain | 9.30 |
| 2018 | Germany | 6.40 |
| 2018 | Brazil | 7.0 |
| 2018 | France | 7.80 |
| 2018 | Spain | 9.30 |
So how have teams at the front of the market performed against teams at odds 10.0 or longer since 2002?
Table 2: Performance of nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002 in the 1X2 Market.
| Matches | Won | Draw | Lost | Won P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 41 | 19 | 14 | -8.02 | +4.49 | +21.81 |
In the 1X2 market, betting against front of the market teams has returned a handsome profit since 2002. Betting at even stakes on teams at odds 10.0 or longer vs teams shorter than odds of 10.0 has seen a profit of +21.81 units from 74 matches, a return of +29.5%.
Backing the draw has likewise been profitable in these matches, returning a profit of +4.49 units.
These results are likewise reflected in the Asian handicap market.
Table 3: Performance of nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002 in the Asian handicap Market.
| Matches | Ah WON | Ah LOST | Ah WON P/L | Ah LOST P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 74 | 29.75 | 44.25 | -16.58 | +11.02 |
Betting on teams at odds 10.0 or longer against teams shorter than odds 10.0 has returned a profit of +11.02 units from 74 matches, a return of +14.9%.Betting on nations at odds 10.0 or longer against front of the market nations in the Asian handicap market has hit a win rate of 59.8% from the 74 matches.
Betting on Tournament Favourites
Let’s take a look at how tournament favourites have performed in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap betting markets.
Firstly, here are the tournament favourites dating back to 2002.
Table 4: World Cup favourites since 2002
| Year | FAVOURITE | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Argentina | 6.0 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 4.0 |
| 2010 | Spain | 5.50 |
| 2014 | Brazil | 4.90 |
| 2018 | Germany | 6.40 |
As we saw in previous articles, it has been profitable to bet against defending World Cup champions, betting on underdogs receiving at least +1 in the Asian handicap market and betting against top ranked FIFA nations. These results are likewise reflected in the results when betting against pre tournament favourites.
Betting against tournament favourites in the 1X2 market since 2002 has returned a huge profit of +27.98 units from just 24 units. The bulk of the damage was done betting against Germany in 2018, with opposing tournament favourites returning a profit in all but Brazil in 2014.
Table 5: Performance of World Cup favourites since 2002 in the 1X2 market
| Year | Nation | Matches | W | D | L | W P/L | D P/L | L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Argentina | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1.29 | +0.63 | +0.95 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +0.4 | -5 | +0.2 |
| 2010 | Spain | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +1.69 | -3.6 | +7.08 |
| 2014 | Brazil | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | -1.78 | +3.72 | -3.1 |
| 2018 | Germany | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1.54 | -3 | +22.85 |
| TOTAL | 24 | 14 | 4 | 6 | -2.52 | -7.25 | +27.98 |
We see similarities in the Asian handicap market. Betting against tournament favourites has seen a profit of +3.33 from the 24 matches, with a win rate of just under 58%.
Table 6: Performance of World Cup favourites since 2002 in the Asian handicap market
| Year | Nation | Matches | Ah WON | Ah LOST | Ah W P/L | Ah L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Argentina | 3 | 0.75 | 2.25 | -1.54 | +1.34 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 5 | 3 | 2 | +0.69 | -1.12 |
| 2010 | Spain | 7 | 3 | 4 | -1.26 | +0.55 |
| 2014 | Brazil | 6 | 2.75 | 3.25 | -0.67 | +0.55 |
| 2018 | Germany | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2 | +2.01 |
| TOTAL | 24 | 10 | 14.0 | -4.8 | +3.33 |
Historical World Cup Winner Odds
Before I close this analysis, let’s take a look through the history of World Cup winner odds, from 2002 onwards. The odds referenced are taken from my own personal outright odds archive.
2002 World Cup Winner Odds
Coming off their disappointment of 1998, eventual 2002 winners Brazil entered the World Cup at odds of 11.0 to claim the trophy. Their opponents in the final Germany began the tournament even further adrift at odds of 15.0.
It was not a great tournament for nations that began as the favourites. Argentina began at odds of 6.0 and failed to make the knockout stage, while Italy at odds of 8.0 were eliminated in the Round of 16 and France at odds of 9.0 failed to win a match in the World Cup defence.
The biggest surprise of the tournament was Senegal, beginning the tournament at odds of 301.0 and reaching the quarter finals while the USA at odds of 181.0 did likewise.
Table 8: 2002 World Cup Winner odds
| Tournament | Nation | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | Argentina | 6.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Italy | 8.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | France | 9.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Brazil | 11.0 | WINNER |
| 2002 | Spain | 12.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2002 | England | 15.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2002 | Germany | 15.0 | Runner Up |
| 2002 | Portugal | 18.50 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Cameroon | 41.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Paraguay | 51.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Croatia | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Nigeria | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Poland | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Ecuador | 81.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Ireland | 81.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Japan (HOST) | 81.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Mexico | 81.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | South Africa | 81.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | South Korea (HOST) | 81.0 | 4th Place |
| 2002 | Sweden | 81.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Belgium | 101.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Russia | 101.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Turkey | 121.0 | 3rd Place |
| 2002 | Denmark | 151.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2002 | Uruguay | 151.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Slovenia | 181.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | USA | 181.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2002 | China | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Costa Rica | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Senegal | 301.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2002 | Tunisia | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2002 | Saudi Arabia | 301.0 | Group Stage |
2006 World Cup Winner Odds
Brazil entered the 2006 World Cup at the relatively short odds of 4.0, looking to defend their 2002 title. After winning their group, Brazil were bounced in the quarter finals by France.
Argentina, England and Germany each began at odds of 11.0 with the hosts Germany eliminated in the semi finals by Italy while Argentina and England were each eliminated in the quarter finals.
Eventual winners Italy began the tournament at a best price of 13, with runners up France starting odds of 17.5.
The biggest surprise of the 2006 World Cup was Ecuador who reached the quarter finals having begun the tournament at odds of 251.0.
Table 9: 2006 World Cup Winner odds
| Tournament | Nation | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | Brazil | 4.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2006 | Argentina | 11.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2006 | England | 11.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2006 | Germany (HOST) | 11.0 | 3rd |
| 2006 | Italy | 13.0 | WINNER |
| 2006 | France | 17.50 | Runner Up |
| 2006 | Netherlands | 17.50 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Spain | 21.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Portugal | 31.0 | 4th |
| 2006 | Czech Republic | 41.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Mexico | 51.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Sweden | 51.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | USA | 51.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Croatia | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Ivory Coast | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Serbia | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Ukraine | 61.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2006 | Australia | 81.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Poland | 101.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Switzerland | 101.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Ghana | 121.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | Japan | 181.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Paraguay | 181.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Ecuador | 251.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2006 | South Korea | 251.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Tunisia | 251.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Angola | 501.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Costa Rica | 501.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Iran | 501.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Saudi Arabia | 501.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Togo | 501.0 | Group Stage |
| 2006 | Trinidad & Tobago | 501.0 | Group Stage |
2010 World Cup Winner Odds
Spain began the tournament as favourites, at odds of 5.50 to win the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The team they defeated in the final, Netherlands, began at odds of 12.3.
Brazil began the tournament just short of favouritism and were eliminated by the Dutch in the quarter finals, while Argentina reached the quarter finals and England suffered a 4-1 defeat to Germany in the Round of 16.
The biggest surprise of the 2010 World Cup was Uruguay who reached the semi finals starting the tournament at odds of 171.0.
Table 10: 2010 World Cup Winner odds
| Tournament | Nation | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Spain | 5.50 | WINNER |
| 2010 | Brazil | 6.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2010 | England | 7.80 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Argentina | 8.30 | Qtr Finals |
| 2010 | Netherlands | 12.30 | Runner Up |
| 2010 | Germany | 16.50 | 3rd |
| 2010 | Italy | 16.50 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | France | 23.50 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Portugal | 31.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Ivory Coast | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Serbia | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Chile | 76.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | USA | 91.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Ghana | 111.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2010 | Mexico | 111.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Paraguay | 111.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2010 | Cameroon | 151.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Denmark | 151.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Australia | 171.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Nigeria | 171.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | South Africa (HOST) | 171.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Uruguay | 171.0 | 4th |
| 2010 | Greece | 221.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | South Korea | 276.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Switzerland | 276.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Slovakia | 451.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Slovenia | 551.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Japan | 651.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2010 | Algeria | 801.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | Honduras | 1101.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | North Korea | 2151.0 | Group Stage |
| 2010 | New Zealand | 2751.0 | Group Stage |
2014 World Cup Winner Odds
Hosts Brazil entered the 2014 World Cup as favourites at odds of 4.9, but were eliminated in ignominious fashion in the semi finals by eventual champions Germany, 7-1.
The Germans entered the tournament at odds of 7.40, while the nation they defeated in extra time of the final, Argentina entered as second favourites, at odds of 6.40.
Meanwhile defending champions Spain entered the tournament at odds of 9.30 and failed to reach the knockout stage.
The biggest surprises of the 2014 World Cup was Costa Rica who reached the quarter finals after starting the tournament at odds of 1251.0.
Table 11: 2014 World Cup Winner odds
| Tournament | Nation | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | Brazil (HOST) | 4.90 | 4th |
| 2014 | Argentina | 6.40 | Runner Up |
| 2014 | Germany | 7.40 | WINNER |
| 2014 | Spain | 9.30 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Belgium | 17.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2014 | Colombia | 25.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2014 | France | 25.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2014 | Italy | 31.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Netherlands | 31.0 | 3rd |
| 2014 | Uruguay | 31.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | England | 31.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Chile | 41.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Portugal | 41.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Russia | 61.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Switzerland | 91.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Ecuador | 121.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Ivory Coast | 121.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Japan | 121.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Mexico | 121.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Croatia | 176.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | USA | 176.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Bosnia & Herzegovina | 226.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Ghana | 226.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Greece | 226.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Nigeria | 226.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | South Korea | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Australia | 601.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Cameroon | 1201.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Costa Rica | 1201.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2014 | Algeria | 1651.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2014 | Honduras | 2251.0 | Group Stage |
| 2014 | Iran | 2851.0 | Group Stage |
2018 World Cup Winner Odds
Defending champions Germany entered the 2018 World Cup as favourites at odds of 6.40 and failed to reach the knockout stage.
Eventual champions France began the tournament as third favourites at odds of 7.8, behind Brazil at odds of 7.0. Spain and Argentina filled out the top five in the market, with both nations eliminated in the Round of 16.
The biggest surprises at the 2018 World Cup were Sweden who reached the quarter finals after starting the tournament at odds of 101.0.
Table 12: 2018 World Cup Winner odds
| Tournament | Nation | Odds | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | Germany | 6.40 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Brazil | 7.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2018 | France | 7.80 | WINNER |
| 2018 | Spain | 9.30 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Argentina | 10.80 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Belgium | 15.20 | 3rd |
| 2018 | England | 24.50 | 4th |
| 2018 | Portugal | 24.50 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Colombia | 31.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Uruguay | 31.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2018 | Croatia | 36.0 | Runner Up |
| 2018 | Russia (HOST) | 36.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2018 | Poland | 51.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Mexico | 71.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Denmark | 101.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Sweden | 101.0 | Qtr Finals |
| 2018 | Switzerland | 101.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Egypt | 176.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Japan | 176.0 | Round of 16 |
| 2018 | Senegal | 176.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Serbia | 176.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Iceland | 231.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Nigeria | 231.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Peru | 231.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Australia | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Costa Rica | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Iran | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Morocco | 301.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | South Korea | 601.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Tunisia | 601.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Panama | 1201.0 | Group Stage |
| 2018 | Saudi Arabia | 1201.0 | Group Stage |
2022 World Cup Winner Odds
Who will be the surprises of the 2022 World Cup? Will the favourites dominate as they did in 2018? Below are the current odds for the 2022 World Cup as at 27th October 2022.
If you’re keen to enter the World Cup outright winner market, take a look at who our team of expert football writers are backing.
Table 13: 2022 World Cup Winner odds as at 27th October 2022.
| Tournament | Nation | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Brazil | 6.0 |
| 2022 | France | 7.50 |
| 2022 | England | 9.0 |
| 2022 | Argentina | 9.0 |
| 2022 | Spain | 9.50 |
| 2022 | Germany | 11.0 |
| 2022 | Portugal | 17.0 |
| 2022 | Netherlands | 17.0 |
| 2022 | Belgium | 18.0 |
| 2022 | Denmark | 41.0 |
| 2022 | Uruguay | 61.0 |
| 2022 | Croatia | 67.0 |
| 2022 | Senegal | 101.0 |
| 2022 | Switzerland | 126.0 |
| 2022 | Serbia | 151.0 |
| 2022 | Mexico | 226.0 |
| 2022 | Poland | 226.0 |
| 2022 | USA | 226.0 |
| 2022 | Ecuador | 301.0 |
| 2022 | Wales | 301.0 |
| 2022 | Cameroon | 301.0 |
| 2022 | Ghana | 301.0 |
| 2022 | Morocco | 301.0 |
| 2022 | Japan | 301.0 |
| 2022 | South Korea | 401.0 |
| 2022 | Canada | 501.0 |
| 2022 | Australia | 501.0 |
| 2022 | Qatar | 501.0 |
| 2022 | Tunisia | 501.0 |
| 2022 | Saudi Arabia | 751.0 |
| 2022 | Iran | 801.0 |
| 2022 | Costa Rica | 1001.0 |
