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Horse Racing History Says.....Bet On Experience At the World Cup
How important is World Cup experience? Do World Cups with more experience outperform the betting market, or do nations with less World Cup experience surprise bookmaker expectations?
In this article:
- Debut Nations at the World Cup
- Betting Against Debut Nations at the World Cup
- World Cup Experience: Appearances
- World Cup Experience: Matches Played
- Betting on Experience: Appearances
- Betting on Experience: Matches Played
- Experience Mismatches at the 2022 World Cup
In this analysis I will be taking a look at the performance of nations based on their World Cup experience. Firstly I will examine the performance of nations based on the number of appearances they have made at World Cup tournaments while also looking at results of matches based on the differential in appearance experience between the competing teams.
Secondly, I will look at performance of nations based on the number of World Cup matches they have played, specifically the results of matches based on the differentials of World Cup matches played between the competing teams.
I will then take a look at betting results for both appearance and matches played differentials. Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.
I have excluded 3rd place playoffs with knockout stage match results determined by the result at the conclusion of regular time with extra time and penalties excluded.
Debut Nations at the World Cup
Let’s begin with the least experienced nations. Nations making their debut at the World Cup.
Below are the results for debut nations when facing opponents with previous World Cup experience categorised by decade.
Table 1: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations each decade
| Decade | Matches | Won | Draw | Lost | Ave Pts | Ave GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1930s | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1.83 | +0.00 |
| 1950s | 23 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 0.91 | -1.35 |
| 1960s | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 1.15 | -0.62 |
| 1970s | 28 | 2 | 8 | 18 | 0.50 | -1.82 |
| 1980s | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 0.95 | -0.73 |
| 1990s | 30 | 7 | 7 | 16 | 0.93 | -0.87 |
| 2000s | 35 | 7 | 8 | 20 | 0.83 | -0.86 |
| 2010s | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0.62 | -1.08 |
We can see that as an increasing number of inferior footballing nations enter the World Cup, the average points per match drops for debut nations..
Since the 1990 World Cup, debut nations have won a total of 16 World Cup matches from 78 matches, earning an average of 0.83 points per match. Previous to 1990, debut nations won an average of 0.95 points per match, with debut nations through the 1930s and 50s earning 1.23 points per match.
The table below shows the performance of debut nations facing nations with World Cup experience in each tournament.
Table 2: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations each tournament.
| Year | Matches | Won | Draw | Lost | Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1934 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2.67 | 2.17 |
| 1938 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.00 | -2.17 |
| 1950 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 1954 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | -5.00 |
| 1958 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| 1962 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.33 | -2.00 |
| 1966 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1.86 | +0.57 |
| 1970 | 9 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 0.33 | -1.67 |
| 1974 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0.46 | -2.38 |
| 1978 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0.83 | -0.83 |
| 1982 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 0.80 | -1.00 |
| 1986 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.29 | -0.14 |
| 1990 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.83 | -1.00 |
| 1994 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 1.11 | -0.78 |
| 1998 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.89 | -0.78 |
| 2002 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0.71 | -1.07 |
| 2006 | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 0.90 | -0.71 |
| 2010 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | -0.50 |
| 2014 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 2018 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.17 | -2.00 |
| TOTAL | 176 | 38 | 44 | 94 | 0.90 | -1.00 |
In the last three World Cup tournaments, debut nations have won just two of 13 matches played, earning just 0.62 points per match while suffering an average goal difference of -1.08 goals per match.
Betting Against Debut Nations
If we take a look at the betting markets, we see that since 1998 betting against debut nations has proven to be profitable in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
Table 3: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations 1X2 market since 1998.
| 1X2 MARKET | Matches | Won | Draw | Lost | Won P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debut Nations | 57 | 11 | 12 | 34 | -12.28 | -15.33 | +3.69 |
If you had been on experienced nations against debut nations at the World Cup since 1998, you would have seen a profit of +3.69 units from 57 matches in the 1X2 market, a return of +6.5%.
Meanwhile in the Asian handicap market, betting against debut nations when facing experienced World Cup nations would have seen a profit of +8.85 units from 57 matches, a return of +15.5%, with a win rate of 58.6%.
Table 4: Performance of World Cup debut nations vs experienced World Cup nations Asian handicap market since 1998.
| ASIAN HANDICAP MARKET | Matches | Ah Win | Ah Loss | Ah Win P/L | Ah Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Debut Nations | 57 | 24 | 34 | -11.63 | +8.85 |
In the 2022 World Cup we will see Qatar,. a debut nation, host the World Cup, something that has not happened since Italy hosted the 1934 making their World Cup debut.
I wrote in another article looking at the advantage host nations enjoy at the World Cup. This advantage could well be mitigated given Qatar’s status as a debut nation.
World Cup Experience: Appearances
Before we begin digging into the data, it’s obvious that nations with more World Cup experience will outperform those inexperienced nations, simply for the fact that greater World Cup experience reflects superior performance in international football.
Below we see the performance of nations competing at the World Cup based on the number of times they have appeared at a World Cup tournament.
Table 5: Performance of nations by appearance at a World Cup
| Appearance | Matches | Won | Draw | Lost | Ave Pts | Ave GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21st | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2.00 | +1 |
| 20th | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.83 | +0 |
| 19th | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.63 | +0.38 |
| 18th | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2.00 | +1.27 |
| 17th | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 1.95 | +1 |
| 16th | 31 | 18 | 9 | 4 | 2.03 | +0.68 |
| 15th | 44 | 27 | 12 | 5 | 2.11 | +0.95 |
| 14th | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 1.68 | +0.5 |
| 13th | 49 | 27 | 12 | 10 | 1.90 | +0.53 |
| 12th | 60 | 38 | 11 | 11 | 2.08 | +0.78 |
| 11th | 64 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 1.50 | +0.3 |
| 10th | 78 | 30 | 31 | 17 | 1.55 | +0.4 |
| 9th | 95 | 46 | 29 | 20 | 1.76 | +0.45 |
| 8th | 93 | 35 | 21 | 37 | 1.35 | +0.1 |
| 7th | 113 | 39 | 35 | 39 | 1.35 | +0.06 |
| 6th | 130 | 43 | 30 | 57 | 1.22 | 0 |
| 5th | 153 | 50 | 46 | 57 | 1.28 | 0 |
| 4th | 153 | 47 | 45 | 61 | 1.22 | -0.08 |
| 3rd | 177 | 51 | 41 | 85 | 1.10 | -0.39 |
| 2nd | 185 | 58 | 47 | 80 | 1.19 | -0.26 |
| 1st | 249 | 71 | 48 | 130 | 1.05 | -0.72 |
We can see that the greater the experience, the greater the performance. In combination, nations with seven World Cup appearances or more have collected a positive goal difference, while nations with six or fewer World Cup experiences are break-even or in the negative in terms of average goal difference.
If we look at appearance differentials, meaning the difference between the number of World Cups the two competing nations have appeared in, we clearly see that the nations with greater World Cup experience impose themselves on those less experienced nations.
Table 6: Results of matches by appearance differential at World Cups
| Appearance diff. | Matches | Won | Draw | Loss | Ave Pts | GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +2 |
| 16 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2.17 | +1.5 |
| 15 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2.67 | +1.42 |
| 14 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2.22 | +1.67 |
| 13 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1.88 | +0.5 |
| 12 | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 2.18 | +1.91 |
| 11 | 25 | 21 | 3 | 1 | 2.64 | +1.64 |
| 10 | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 2.10 | +0.87 |
| 9 | 29 | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1.86 | +0.59 |
| 8 | 45 | 28 | 8 | 9 | 2.04 | +0.82 |
| 7 | 47 | 29 | 7 | 11 | 2.00 | +0.66 |
| 6 | 61 | 34 | 18 | 9 | 1.97 | +0.87 |
| 5 | 63 | 30 | 16 | 17 | 1.68 | +0.62 |
| 4 | 81 | 43 | 24 | 14 | 1.89 | +0.88 |
| 3 | 85 | 35 | 33 | 17 | 1.62 | +0.31 |
| 2 | 123 | 57 | 31 | 35 | 1.64 | +0.6 |
| 1 | 123 | 40 | 40 | 43 | 1.30 | +0.16 |
World Cup Experience: Matches Played
We see similarities when we go beyond World Cup appearances and look at the total number of matches each nation has played at the World Cup.
Below are the results for matches played between nations based on the differential in the number of World Cup matches played by the two nations.
Table 7: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups
| Games Diff. | Matches | Won | Draw | Loss | Ave Pts | Ave GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 | 291 | 121 | 79 | 91 | 1.52 | +0.43 |
| 10-19 | 173 | 76 | 59 | 38 | 1.66 | +0.55 |
| 20-29 | 134 | 72 | 35 | 27 | 1.87 | +0.84 |
| 30-39 | 90 | 51 | 23 | 16 | 1.96 | +0.67 |
| 40-49 | 55 | 33 | 16 | 6 | 2.09 | +0.96 |
| 50-59 | 32 | 22 | 4 | 6 | 2.19 | +0.97 |
| 60-69 | 24 | 19 | 2 | 3 | 2.46 | +1.21 |
| 70-79 | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 2.05 | +1.19 |
| 80+ | 14 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 2.71 | +2.00 |
We can see that the greater the differential in World Cup games played, the greater the performance of the superior team. For example, nations enjoying an advantage of over 80 games played at the World Cup, are undefeated while winning 12 of 14 matches played between such teams.
We can also see that in compositie, nations with even a minimal advantage of between just one and nine matches, see an average goal difference of +0.43 goals and win percentage of just under 42%.
Betting on Experience: Appearances
Nations with greater experience have exceeded market expectations in World Cups since 1998.
The table below shows the results in the 1X2 betting market, based on appearance differentials between nations.
Table 8: Results of matches by appearances differential at World Cups in the 1X2 market since 1998
| Appearance diff. | Matches | Won P/L | Draw P/l | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 3 | +1.18 | -3 | -3 |
| 16 | 6 | -0.94 | -0.76 | +0.95 |
| 15 | 12 | +3.3 | -0.53 | -12 |
| 14 | 9 | -0.22 | -0.47 | -2.53 |
| 13 | 8 | -1.44 | -7 | +10.25 |
| 12 | 11 | -0.7 | -1.57 | -5.01 |
| 11 | 25 | +6.43 | -7.3 | -19 |
| TOTAL | 74 | +7.61 | -20.63 | -30.34 |
We can see that betting on nations with an experience differential of at least 11 World Cups has been profitable, returning +7.61 units from 74 matches played where a nation had such an advantage in experience, a return of +10.3%.
Table 9: Results of matches by appearances differential at World Cups in the Asian handicap market since 1998
| Appearance diff. | Matches | Ah Won | Ah Loss | Ah Won P/L | Ah Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | 3 | 2 | 1 | +0.85 | -1.11 |
| 16 | 6 | 4 | 3 | +1.02 | -1.36 |
| 15 | 12 | 6 | 6 | +0.15 | -1.01 |
| 14 | 9 | 5 | 4 | +0.32 | -0.89 |
| 13 | 8 | 4 | 4 | -0.5 | -0.26 |
| 12 | 11 | 4 | 5 | -0.92 | -0.14 |
| 11 | 25 | 11 | 8 | +3.41 | -3.73 |
| TOTAL | 74 | 36 | 30 | +4.33 | -8.49 |
It has been similar in the Asian handicap market, with nations holding an advantage of 11 World Cup appearances over their opponents, returning a profit of +4.33 units from the same 74 matches played, a return of +5.9% profit.
Betting on Experience: Matches Played
When considering the differential in games played, nations with an advantage of at least 50 games played at the World Cup have been profitable to back in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
Table 10: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups in the 1X2 market since 1998
| Games Played Diff. | Matches | Won P/L | Draw P/L | Loss P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-59 | 22 | +2.52 | -15.7 | +1.47 |
| 60-69 | 20 | +3.36 | -11.93 | -5.99 |
| 70-79 | 21 | -1.4 | -2.48 | +15.64 |
| 80+ | 14 | +2.86 | -2.94 | -14 |
| TOTAL | 77 | +7.34 | -33.05 | -2.88 |
In 1X2 betting, nations with at least 50 more games played have returned a profit of +7.34 units from 77 matches played, a return of +9.5%.
In Asian handicap betting, nations with at least 50 more games of World Cup experience have been profitable, though by a slight margin. If you had backed each of these nations at even stakes you would have seen a profit of +1.98 units from the same 77 matches, a return of +2.6%, with a win rate of just under 53%.
Table 11: Results of matches by matches played differential at World Cups in the Asian handicap market since 1998
| Games Played Diff. | Matches | Ah Won | Ah Lost | Ah Won P/L | Ah Lost P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50-59 | 22 | 10.5 | 11.5 | -1.35 | +0.26 |
| 60-69 | 20 | 11 | 9 | +1.59 | -2.4 |
| 70-79 | 21 | 9.25 | 11.75 | -3.46 | +1.33 |
| 80+ | 14 | 9.75 | 4.25 | +5.2 | -5.9 |
| TOTAL | 77 | 40.5 | 36.5 | +1.98 | -6.71 |
However, increasing the games differential improves the profit to +3.33 units from 55 matches, a return of just over 6% and a win rate of 54.5%.
Experience Mismatches at the 2022 World Cup
At the 2022 World Cup, there are fifteen matches in the group stage where a nation will have an experience advantage of at least 10 World Cups between themselves and their opponents.
Further, there will be 10 matches in the group stage where a nation enjoys an experience advantage of at least 50 World Cup matches.
Combined, there are nine matches at the 2022 World Cup where a nation will enjoy both an advantage of at least 10 World Cups and at least 50 World Cup matches. These are:
Table 12: Matches at the 2022 World Cup where nations have significant advantage in experience
| Group | Round | Date | Match | Advantage | Appearance Diff | Games Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group B | 1 | 21-Nov | England vs Iran | England | +10 | +53 |
| Group C | 1 | 22-Nov | Argentina vs Saudi Arabia | Argentina | +12 | +65 |
| Group D | 1 | 22-Nov | France vs Australia | France | +10 | +50 |
| Group E | 1 | 23-Nov | Germany vs Japan | Germany | +13 | +88 |
| Group G | 2 | 28-Nov | Brazil vs Switzerland | Brazil | +10 | +72 |
| Group B | 3 | 29-Nov | England vs Wales | England | +14 | +63 |
| Group D | 3 | 30-Nov | France vs Tunisia | France | +10 | +51 |
| Group E | 3 | 1-Dec | Germany vs Costa Rica | Germany | +14 | +91 |
| Group G | 3 | 2-Dec | Brazil vs Cameroon | Brazil | +14 | +86 |
Betting on Experience at the 2022 World Cup
Experienced World Cup nations are inherently better footballing nations. We have seen in this analysis that nations with an advantage in experience have not only been superior to less experienced nations, but in composite they have been profitable to back in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
Likewise, debut nations have struggled to perform even to market expectations. With Qatar playing the role as debut hosts, it will be interesting to see if the advantage of playing on home soil mitigates their lack of experience at the 2022 World Cup.
