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Mixed martial arts History Says....Bet Against France at the 2022 World Cup
Has it been profitable to back defending champions at major international football tournaments?
To put it bluntly, no.
In fact backing defending World Cup and European champions since 1998 has been down right disastrous.
In this article:
In this analysis I will be looking at the performance of defending World Cup and European champions when defending their titles at the following tournament. In particular I will be looking at even stakes performance in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
Betting Against Defending World Cup Champions
Below we can see the results when betting against defending World Cup winners since the 1998 World Cup. Here we are looking at the following defending World champions:
- Brazil at World Cup 1998 as defending 1994 champions
- France at World Cup 2002 as defending 1998 champions
- Brazil at World Cup 2006 as defending 2002 champions
- Italy at World Cup 2010 as defending 2006 champions
- Spain at World Cup 2014 as defending 2010 champions
- Germany at World Cup 2018 as defending 2014 champions
Betting against defending World Champions: 1X2 Market
The table below displays results for 1X2 betting for each defending World Cup champion since the 1998 tournament.
Profitability for each result – Win, Draw or Loss – is calculated at ‘even stakes’ using averaged odds at standard 4.5% bookmaker margin. By ‘even stakes’ we mean betting a single unit on each result. So for example, betting one unit on Germany to win each of their matches at the 2018 World Cup, would have returned -1.54 units while betting a single unit on each of their opponents to win would have returned a profit of +22.85 units.
| TEAM | GAMES | W-D-L | WIN | DRAW | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil 1998 | 7 | 4-1-2 | -1.62 | -3.95 | +2.77 |
| France 2002 | 3 | 0-1-2 | -3.00 | +1.00 | +12.93 |
| Brazil 2006 | 5 | 4-0-1 | +0.40 | -5.00 | +0.20 |
| Italy 2010 | 3 | 0-2-1 | -3.00 | +6.08 | +3.95 |
| Spain 2014 | 3 | 1-0-2 | -1.61 | -3.00 | +7.53 |
| Germany 2018 | 3 | 1-0-2 | -1.54 | -3.00 | +22.85 |
| Totals | 24 | 10-4-10 | -10.37 | -7.87 | +50.23 |
| ROI % | -43.2% | -32.8% | +209.3% |
Returns calculated by average 1X2 match odds at even stakes
Considering defending World Cup champions since 1998, we see a total of 24 matches played by such teams at the returning tournament. Backing each of these teams at even stakes would have returned a loss of over 43% while betting on them to lose each match would have returned a mighty profit of just over 209%.
In fact only one defending World Cup champion has returned a profit at the returning tournament, that being defending 2002 World Cup champions Brazil at the 2006 World Cup.
The biggest disappointments were:
- 2002 France – losing to both Senegal and Denmark while drawing with Hungary,
- 2010 Italy – drew twice and lost to Slovakia
- 2018 Germany – lost to both Mexico and South Korea at long odds.
Betting against defending World Champions: Asian handicap market
In terms of the Asian handicap market, betting against defending champions combined for a win rate of almost 72% through the 24 matches, returning a profit of over 38%, while betting on defending champions in the Asian handicap market would have returned a loss of over 46%.
| TEAM | GAMES | w/L | WIN | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil 1998 | 7 | 2/5 | -3.18 | +2.42 |
| France 2002 | 3 | 0/3 | -3.00 | +2.88 |
| Brazil 2006 | 5 | 3/2 | +0.685 | -1.12 |
| Italy 2010 | 3 | 0.25/2.75 | -2.5 | +2.08 |
| Spain 2014 | 3 | 1/2 | -1.09 | +0.89 |
| Germany 2018 | 3 | 0.5/2.5 | -2 | +2.01 |
| Totals | 24 | 6.75/17.25 | -11.085 | +9.16 |
| ROI % | -46.2% | +38.2% |
Returns calculated by average Asian handicap odds at even stakes
Betting Against Defending Euro Champions
We can also observe a similar trend when we look at defending European champions. Here we are looking at the following defending European champions:
- Germany at Euro 2000 as defending Euro 1996 champions
- France at Euro 2004 as defending Euro 2000 champions
- Greece at Euro 2008 as defending Euro 2004 champions
- Spain at Euro 2012 as defending Euro 2008 champions
- Spain at Euro 2016 as defending Euro 2012 champions
- Portugal at Euro 2021 as defending Euro 2016 champions.
Betting on each team to win each match at even stakes would have returned a loss of over 39% while betting on them to lose each match would have returned you a profit of just over 42%.
| TEAM | GAMES | W-D-L | WIN | DRAW | LOSS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany 2000 | 3 | 0-1-2 | -3.00 | +0.22 | +2.52 |
| France 2004 | 4 | 2-1-1 | -0.50 | -0.21 | +3.60 |
| Greece 2008 | 3 | 0-0-3 | -3.00 | -3.00 | +3.57 |
| Spain 2012 | 6 | 4-2-0 | +0.76 | +0.75 | -6.00 |
| Spain 2016 | 4 | 2-0-2 | -1.10 | -4.00 | +5.75 |
| Portugal 2021 | 4 | 1-1-2 | -2.55 | -0.56 | +0.68 |
| Totals | 24 | 9-5-10 | -9.39 | -6.80 | +10.12 |
| ROI % | -39.1% | -28.3% | +42.2% |
Returns calculated by average 1X2 match odds at even stakes
The only defending European champion that was profitable to back in their return tournament were the 2008 defending champions Spain, backing up their performance at Euro 2012.
In terms of Asian handicap betting, betting against defending Euro champions has seen a win rate of just under 64% in their 24 matches played since 2000, for a return of over 25% profit.
Conclusion: Bet Against The Champs
Though we are talking of a small sample size, the trend has been quite stark. It has indeed been profitable to bet against defending champions at the following major tournament
For World Cup 2022, seriously consider betting against defending World Cup champions France in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets. In the group stage France will face:
- 22nd November, Australia – the Australians will receive +2 goals in the Asian handicap market
- 26th November, Denmark – the Danes will receive +0.5 goal in the Asian handicap market
- 30th November, Tunisia – the Tunisians will receive +1.75 goals in the Asian handicap market, although the line could shift depending upon whether or not France requires points to progress to the knockout stage
