Germany vs Scotland Prediction: Euro 2024 Player to Watch and Team News

The game European football fans have been counting down to sees Jack Wright offer up a Germany vs Scotland prediction, team news and lineups preview for the opening Group A fixture of the 2023/24 European Championships.

Hosts Germany get the action underway and are a very warm order to brush aside opponents Scotland. But this may not be as straightforward as the odds imply.  

For a deeper dive into Group A, look no further: Euro 2024 Group A Preview

• Germany vs Scotland Tip 1: Scotland +1.5 Asian Handicap
• Germany vs Scotland Tip 2: Under 2.75 Goals
• Germany vs Scotland Tip 3: Half Time Result: Draw

Last updated: June 14th, 2024.

Player to watch: Toni Kroos

Germany possesses the coolest man in possession of any nation rocking up at Euro 2024. Toni Kroos, who boasts the ninth-most caps for his country, is back in the German fold, pulling on his nation’s colours for the final time. It’ll be the last occasion he’ll spray a forty-yard ball in his professional career. 

Kroos’ presence means Joshua Kimmich will head to right-back to give Germany a world class operator on the right hand side of defence. Many will argue Kimmich might be best utilised in the middle of the park, but there’s no denying what he brings to that flank when dropping back from a central midfield position.

Robert Andrich joins Kroos in the engine room and provides a midfield that feels balanced, with industry and precision – two traits often associated with the efficient German machine. The 34-year-old Kroos will often be seen dropping into a left-back area of sorts to pick up possession, followed by Kai Havertz dropping in to add numbers to the midfield, whilst Maximilian Mittelstadt pushes high from left-back to create a drawing board ahead of Kroos for him to dictate at his will.

The two much talked about Germany friendlies pre-Euro 2024, the wins over France and the Netherlands, saw Toni Kroos register an assist in each – something you wouldn’t discount him doing in the opener in front of a raucous home setting, or threatening the top string-pullers in the Most Assists Outright Markets.

• Nation: Germany 
• Club: Real Madrid
• Position: Central Midfield
• Selection: Toni Kroos Assist
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Odds: 4.50 [This section is an addition from the bettingexpert team and not Jack Wright]

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WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?

Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

• Match Result (1X2)
• Handicap Betting
• Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

• 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
• 24 team-by-team articles
• BETSiE projections for every team and group
• Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

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Germany vs Scotland Prediction 1: Tartan Army Scot going to make it easy for hosts

UEFA, Euro 2024, Friday, June 14th, 20:00 (UK)

Odds as short as 1.22 for a German victory suggest this should be something of an opening-day cruise for the host nation. However, I am not so sure, and I feel Scotland has been a little disrespected here, so I am happy to side with them on a +1.5 handicap.

The weight of expectation will be on German shoulders in what let us not forget will be Julian Nagelsmann’s first competitive game in charge. Die Mannschaft have also performed terribly in the last three international tournaments.

Suffering elimination at the group stage in the last two World Cups and a Round of 16 exit to England at the last Euros, losing all three opening fixtures in the process. World Cup defeats to Japan and Mexico while losing at this venue to France in this competition in 2021.

There have been a few examples of Germany not justifying similar odds in recent fixtures when on home soil. In 2021 North Macedonia won 2-1 in a World Cup qualifier with the hosts priced at 1.10 and later that year Leon Goretzka hit an 88th minute equaliser to salvage a 2-2 draw against Hungary for his 1.13 priced side.

The Hungarians gained revenge in the Nations League with a 1-0 win over their hosts, who kicked off as the 1.28 favourites. Nagelsmann’s first game in charge ended in defeat despite his side being priced at 1.32 to beat Turkey, and most recently, they were held to a 0-0 draw by Ukraine as 1.29 favourites.

Those readers of a certain vintage will share my memories of the incredible opening fixture of the 1990 World Cup. Holders Argentina kicked off a tournament they were one of the favourites to win against unheralded Cameroon. The African nation who ended the game with nine-men recorded a 1-0 victory in what was described at the time as one of the biggest upsets in the history of the event.  

• Germany vs Scotland Prediction 1: Scotland +1.5 Asian Handicap 
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Germany vs Scotland Prediction 2: Don’t expect Ger-many goals on opening night

I had earmarked this selection prior to the week of international friendlies. At the time of writing my initial thoughts have been franked by two drab matches involving these sides.

The host nation were held to a frustrating 0-0 draw by Ukraine in their penultimate match before this summer’s tournament. Scotland ended a seven-game winless run by labouring to a 2-0 victory over Gibraltar, a side ranked 203 in the World and who were beaten 14-0 by France in November.

As already mentioned Germany are a very short price to win this one and as a result of that the derivative markets reflect their perceived superiority. The goal line has been set at 2.75 and that is a line I am prepared to get on the under.

For those unfamiliar with the Asian total or goal line, this selection sees half the stake placed on under 2.5 goals and the other half under 3.0, thus meaning to lose all of the stake, there would need to be four or more goals. 

As well as recent history and game state I am also leaning heavily on historical trends in making this selection. Namely the goals scored in opening fixtures of the European Championships.

The last time there were four or more goals in the opening game of this tournament was in 1976. Since then, there have been 11 fixtures producing a total of 23 goals, with an average of 2.09. This selection would have won in seven of those 11.

• Germany vs Scotland Prediction 2: Under 2.75 Goals 
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10

Germany vs Scotland Prediction 3: Tight opening expected as the curtain rises

Considering they’re starting their campaign with the toughest fixture, a positive result here for Scotland would give their hopes of progressing to the Round of 16 a massive boost. Steve Clarke’s men ran Spain mighty close at the top of their qualification group.

A contentious VAR intervention ruled out a Scott McTominay “opener” when the two nations met in Sevilla, and had that goal stood, the final standings could have been reversed. Scotland did win the fixture at Hampden 2-0, after which Spain’s Manchester City midfielder Rodri claimed the Tartan Army’s style of play was “not football”.

Expect a similar template here, with Steve Clarke making his side tough to break down and looking for a breakaway goal or set piece due to their lack of firepower. QPR striker Lyndon Dykes is now out after picking up an injury in training, and Scott McTominay, with seven, was by some distance their top scorer in qualifying. His engine room partner, John McGinn (3), was the only other player to score more than once.

Togetherness and organisation are very much the buzz words for the Scots who will be roared on by the Tartan Army. They can make this difficult for the hosts and will look to keep things quiet early on and put the home support on edge.

Germany are not fully settled on who will lead their line, with debate ongoing as to whether Kai Havertz or Niklas Fullkrug should get the nod. Scotland’s striking issues are well documented, which means a draw at half-time looks to hold more than a little value.

• Germany vs Scotland Prediction 3: Half Time Result: Draw
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 7/10

Germany vs Scotland Prediction odds via bet365 and Unibet and updated at15:00, June 13th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Germany vs Scotland Euro 2024 Team News and Possible Lineups: Having Kroos control vital for hosts

Despite all of the exciting young talent at his disposal, possibly the most crucial piece of work completed so far by Nagelsmann is coaxing 2014 World Cup winner Toni Kroos out of international retirement. Due to playing his part in another Real Madrid Champions League victory, the 34-year-old missed the 0-0 draw with Ukraine, further highlighting his importance to his nation. 

Scotland suffered another blow on the eve of the tournament, with QPR striker Lyndon Dykes ruled out of the tournament after picking up an injury in training. Bologna’s Lewis Ferguson is a massive miss in midfield, while injuries to Nathan Patterson and Adam Hickey have ruled them both out of the tournament, meaning Steve Clarke will have a choice to make as to who starts at right wing-back. 

Germany possible starting lineup: 4-2-3-1
Neuer; Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, Mittelstadt; Andrich, Kroos; Musiala, Gundogan, Wirtz; Havertz

Scotland possible starting lineup: 3-4-2-1
Gunn; Porteous, Hendry, Tierney; Ralston, Gilmour, McGregor, Robertson; McTominay, McGinn, Adams

Euro 2024 OPTA Match Stats: Record Holders Germany looking to add to their tally on home soil

• Germany are taking part in their 14th UEFA EURO tournament, more than any other team. They have won the  trophy three times, the joint-most alongside Spain (3). 
• This will be Julian Nagelsmann’s first major tournament as head-coach. Jupp Derwall was the last  Germany boss to win a major tournament with them at the first attempt (EURO 1980)
• Scott McTominay scored seven goals for Scotland in UEFA EURO 2024 qualifying, the joint most by a  Scottish player in a EURO/FIFA World Cup qualifying campaign, along with Steven Fletcher (EURO 2016)  and John McGinn (EURO 2020).
• Germany have recorded most wins (27) and scored most goals (78) in the tournament’s history.
• Scotland have advanced from a qualifying group to a major tournament for the first time since 1997.

Germany vs Scotland Group A Euro 2024 Fixtures: Home advantage key for Germany

• Vs Scotland (H)
• Vs Hungary (H)
• Vs Switzerland (H)

Germany vs Scotland Group A Euro 2024 Fixtures: Positive result in opener would open the door to qualification

• Vs Germany (A)
• Vs Switzerland (N)
• Vs Hungary (N)

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