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Horse Racing Fortaleza vs LDU Quito - The Copa Sudamericana Final: Value Bets, Team News and Stats
It’s the Copa Sudamericana final on Saturday and South American guru Nathan Joyes provides his expert tips for Fortaleza vs LDU Quito.
Will the Brazilian dominance continue this season or will the Ecuadorian club continue to spring a surprise?
If you get through this and you’ve still not had your fix of South American football – fear not. Our weekly foray into the continent in the South American Early Bird, and the three big prices in Scouting Outright Value in Serie A should quench said thirst.
Fortaleza vs LDU Quito: Expert Football Betting Tips
Odds via bet365 as at 14:00, October 24th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Fortaleza to win
Uruguay, Copa Sudamericana, October 28th, 21:00 (UK)
Brazilian outfit Fortaleza have faced two fellow nation sides as well as Paraguay’s Libertad on the way to their final. It’s a fairytale story for the club, which has risen from Brazil’s third division to now be playing on one of the biggest stages in South America.
Having made their Libertadores debut last campaign, a return to calmer waters has suited them far better. Defeating Libertada, as mentioned, as well as America MG and Corinthians en route to the final, showed great resilience.
Goals have been spread across the team, which is a huge plus when it comes to a potential cagey final. Juan Lucero will lead the attack in their preferred 4-5-1 formation, yet Yago Pikachu, Tomas Pochettino and Guilherme are all capable of stepping up in big moments. LDU Quito will need to remain focused across a side which likes to attack down the channels and through the middle.
The Ecuadorian club will provide a completely different test to what Fortaleza are used to. A side which is quick on the counter-attack knocked out Copa do Brasil champions Sao Paulo en route to the final and have every chance of lifting the trophy themselves. They were complete outsiders at 34.0 at the start of the knockouts and have continued to prove everyone wrong to date.
However, their high altitude in Quito has allowed them to flex their muscles over these two leg ties. In a one-off match, however, this is where they may struggle on a more level playing field. Paolo Guerrero leads the line for LDU Quito, but at the age of 39, Fortaleza should be able to deal with him.
He grew frustrated against Defensa y Justicia in the semi-finals and was shown an early yellow. Keeping him unhappy will be massively beneficial for Fortaleza.
It’ll be a triumphant moment for either side which lifts the trophy on Saturday evening, but the Brazilians are stronger on paper and should have the edge across the 90 minutes.
Bettingexpert’s Alternative Expert Bet Tip: Over 12 corners
With Fortaleza and LDU Quito sharing their goals across the park, I’ve looked elsewhere and found what they both have in common: corners.
As with any final, there will no doubt be cagey moments where the game slows down. However, Fortaleza will likely want to assert dominance over their opponents from the off. They didn’t hold back against Corinthians at home in the second leg when level, coming away with a 2-0 win but, more importantly, 15 corners of their own.
They’ll need to be mindful of LDU Quito’s quick counter-attacking play, however, who will be looking to punish the Brazilians on the break as much as possible. Hopefully, this can play to our advantage and land a few corners.
If LDU Quito manages to score first and take the lead, expect Fortaleza to produce a wave of attacks, especially if behind with 20-30 minutes left on the clock.
Defensa y Justicia managed to win 18 corners of their own in the semi-final second leg, with the Ecuadorian club choosing not to take any risks when they found themselves defending their goal.
Most presume finals will be tense affairs, but this one may be anything but with the way they like to set up and attack. This bet will rely on one team taking the lead into the final 15 minutes, but a mad panic towards the back end of the game could see corner after corner and over 12 would land us a nicely priced winner.
- Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: Over 12 Corners
- Best Odds: 4.33
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Fortaleza vs LDU Quito Team News: Both teams head into the final fresh
Both sides will be delighted to head into the contest with fully fit squads to choose from. Fortaleza will arguably be more pleased as they were meant to play Botafogo on Wednesday. However, the game was postponed, allowing the team to have a week to prepare heading into the final.
LDU Quito won on Monday evening against Emelec and will head to Uruguay fresh and in good spirits.
Fortaleza vs LDU Quito Match Stats and Facts: Brazilians can battle bravely to lift the trophy
- Fortaleza won four and drew two of their six knockout matches
- LDU Quito only won one game away from Quito – a 1-0 win over Chile’s Nublense
- Fortaleza had 15 corners against Corinthians in the semi-final second leg
- LDU Quito conceded 18 corners vs Defensa y Justicia in the semi-final second leg
- Guilherme is the top goalscorer between the two sides in the competition (four)
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