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Horse Racing Fluminense vs Boca Juniors Expert Football Betting Tips: Value Bets, Team News and Stats
The Copa Libertadores final is here and on hand to preview the occasion is Nathan Joyes with his best Fluminense vs Boca Juniors expert tips. Will Fluminense win their first ever title in their own back yard or will Boca pick up a seventh title against the odds?
Fluminense vs Boca Juniors: Expert Football Betting Tips
- Bettingexpert’s Value Bet: Fluminense to Win
- Longshot Expert Bet Tip: German Cano to score first 4.33
- Longshot Expert Bet Tip: John Kennedy to score last at 7.00
Odds via bet365 as at 10:00, OCTOBER 31st, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Bettingexpert’s Value Bet Tip: Fluminese to finally lift a Libertadores
Brazil, Copa Libertadores final, November 4th, 20:00 (UK)
After the long, gruelling tournament kicked off back in March, we’re finally down to two, and the Copa Libertadores 2023 winners will be decided on Saturday. Against the odds, Boca Juniors have made it to the final without winning a single knockout match.
Former Manchester United goalkeeper Sergio Romero has helped win three penalty shootouts on the bounce, saving six penalties along the way, but their luck may just run out on Saturday evening.
Fluminense have endured a far trickier route to the final but coped with every challenge thrown their way. From hammering River Plate in the group stage 5-1, the Brazilian club has beaten Argentinos Jrs, Olimpia and Internacional to secure just their second-ever final.
By now, most will have heard or have been familiar with the name Fernando Diniz – the Brazilian coach leading Fluminense to the final. His unique style of play has been refreshing, moving away from rigid formations to offer a more diverse approach.
With Diniz allowing his players to adapt to this extraordinary positionless style in the opponent’s half, rival teams have been overwhelmed with the licence they have to express themselves. This flexibility and direct approach has served them well to date, and Boca may struggle to set up against it.
There’s plenty of experience within their ranks, too, which has helped strike the perfect balance on the pitch. With Marcelo and Felipe Melo at the back, with the former already lifting the trophy twice, they’ve looked assured defensively throughout the tournament.
Further up the pitch, Ganso and German Cano have been standout performers for Flum and will no doubt play key roles on Saturday. Yet despite all this experience, key young players, including Andre, Alexsander and John Kennedy, provide the pace to make Diniz’s tactics as effective as they are.
Boca do head into this final, having lost just one Libertadores match this campaign. Unfortunately for the neutral, this may not be a final for the ages, as their pragmatic approach is unlikely to change against such a fluid side.
Jorge Almiron will look to line up with two banks of four, letting Edinson Cavani free to feed on any scraps up top. He’ll know if he goes toe to toe with a team like Fluminense, Boca will be ripped apart.
However, Fluminense have come up against teams in this tournament, which have been set up defensively, seeking to frustrate, and this is when they come into their own. Boca won’t be able to maintain a perfect formation for 90 minutes, especially considering the final is at the Maracana, Flum’s home ground and the Brazilians can pick off the Argentines within 90 minutes.
Bettingexpert’s Alternative Expert Bet Tip: Cano and Kennedy to steal the show
German Cano continues to age like a fine wine, and although the Argentine turns 36 in the new year, he’s playing the best football of his entire career. Having scored 12 goals in 11 Libertadores matches, there’s no surprise as to why I’m tipping him to break the deadlock in the final.
The way in which he fits into “Diniz ball” is why he’s had so much success. With attacking players in behind having the licence to roam free, German Cano hangs off the last defender and knows how to time his runs to perfection.
Despite his age, he’s not lost his sharp reactions inside the box, and he’s undoubtedly the deadliest finisher in South America. His movement to create space in crowded areas is second to none, but he also has a range of finishing in his locker. He’s not one to just score tap-ins, although he dominates the six-yard area.
However, he thrives when a ball is played on the floor over his shoulder. Running onto through balls, Cano can’t half-strike a ball – and even Romero may struggle on Saturday.
The price may look short enough, but it represents clear value to me as he’s lit up the Libertadores from matchday one.
Another angle I like is his apprentice to finish off proceedings in style. John Kennedy has shown qualities that a move to Europe could be on the cards for the 21-year-old in the near future.
He’s come alive in the knockout stages, scoring three goals – including the key equaliser against Internacional in the second leg.
It’s not clear as to whether or not Kennedy will start alongside Cano, but fear not if he doesn’t, as Diniz often turns to his young striker, having proven so effective in recent months.
Both Cano and Kennedy will likely be the two to hurt Boca, and I’m happy to back Kennedy at 7.0 to secure the title for Fluminense.
1) Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: German Cano to Score First
2) Bettingexpert’s Longshot Expert Bet Tip: John Kennedy to Score Last
Fluminense vs Boca Juniors Team News: Fully fit squads to choose from
Both teams have been extremely careful with key assets in the build-up to the final. Fluminense have had a busy schedule with three Serie A matches within ten days, but Diniz has heavily rotated his side to avoid any potential injuries.
Almiron has taken the exact same approach as Diniz, and fortunately, both sides will have no new injuries heading into the final – exactly what we want to see for such a big occasion.
Fluminense vs Boca Juniors Match Stats and Facts
- Fluminense’s German Cano has scored 12 Libertadores goals in 11 matches
- Boca has yet to win a knockout game in 90 minutes, drawing all six
- Fluminense’s John Kennedy has scored three knockout goals
- The final is being held at the Maracana stadium – Fluminense’s home ground
- Fluminense has lost just two of their 32 home matches in 2023
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