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Horse Racing Everton Points Deduction: Our Supercomputer Predicts Toffees' Relegation Chances to Jump From 1.4% to 21.1%
Everton Points Deduction: Our Supercomputer Predicts The Toffees’ Relegation Odds after 10-Point Hit
Everton have been handed a 10-point deduction by the Premier League. Our resident supercomputer has crunched the numbers to look at their chances of Premier League survival this season after the points hit.
Our projections show that a 10-point deduction would see Everton’s relegation likelihood jump from 1.4% to 21.1%.
We also spoke to former Premier League star Mikael Silvestre to get his thoughts on the situation, He spoke about the punishment, its effects on Everton ahead of their clash with Manchester United this weekend and whether we should expect similar treatment for Manchester City amid their lengthy list of charges.
In this article:
- Premier League projected table after Everton’s 10-point deduction
- “It’s a tough situation for the club but Everton can recover”
- Premier League relegation odds after Everton points deduction
- Galvanised Everton “will be a tough game for United”
- “The Premier League should be fair” on Manchester City charges
- List of Premier League points deductions
Premier League projected table after Everton’s 10-point deduction
| Pos | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 26.2 | 5.8 | 6.0 | 89.5 | 35.2 | 54.3 | 84.3 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 23.7 | 8.4 | 5.9 | 76.3 | 33.9 | 42.5 | 79.6 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 23.3 | 8.1 | 6.6 | 81.7 | 39.0 | 42.7 | 78.0 |
| 4 | Newcastle | 38 | 20.9 | 7.3 | 9.8 | 79.1 | 41.9 | 37.2 | 69.9 |
| 5 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19.9 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 74.3 | 53.4 | 20.8 | 66.4 |
| 6 | Tottenham | 38 | 18.8 | 7.7 | 11.5 | 66.4 | 54.3 | 12.1 | 64.1 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 18.3 | 9.2 | 10.6 | 73.5 | 48.4 | 25.1 | 63.9 |
| 8 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.6 | 5.8 | 14.7 | 54.4 | 55.3 | -0.9 | 58.4 |
| 9 | Brighton | 38 | 16.1 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 67.0 | 58.3 | 8.7 | 58.2 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 14.9 | 9.8 | 13.3 | 60.8 | 54.9 | 5.9 | 54.5 |
| 11 | West Ham | 38 | 14.1 | 7.7 | 16.2 | 58.8 | 65.5 | -6.7 | 50.0 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton | 38 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 17.1 | 48.9 | 63.1 | -14.2 | 45.2 |
| 14 | Crystal Palace | 38 | 11.9 | 9.0 | 17.2 | 43.5 | 58.1 | -14.6 | 44.5 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 38 | 10.6 | 10.4 | 17.0 | 43.4 | 57.6 | -14.1 | 42.3 |
| 16 | Fulham | 38 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 19.0 | 39.0 | 63.8 | -24.8 | 38.9 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 38 | 9.6 | 8.7 | 19.7 | 43.8 | 73.1 | -29.3 | 37.4 |
| 12 | Everton | 38 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 17.5 | 48.3 | 58.8 | -10.6 | 35.5 |
| 18 | Burnley | 38 | 7.3 | 6.9 | 23.8 | 35.5 | 74.9 | -39.5 | 28.8 |
| 19 | Luton | 38 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 23.9 | 36.5 | 77.5 | -41.1 | 26.2 |
| 20 | Sheffield Utd | 38 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 25.7 | 32.3 | 85.9 | -53.6 | 22.7 |
The above table shows the impact of the 10-point deduction on Everton’s chances this season. Without the deduction, our latest Premier League table projections put the Toffees in 12th place at the end of the season on 45.5 points.
10 points is a lot at the bottom. The Toffees finished 17th last season, two points ahead of the current Championship leaders, Leicester City. A 10-point deduction last season would have put Everton rock bottom of the table.
“It’s a tough situation for the club but Everton can recover”
Earlier this week, we sat down with Mikael Silvestre to get his thoughts on the decision. The former France international spent 11 seasons in the Premier League with Arsenal and Manchester United and during the emergence of Chelsea and Manchester City.
We asked Mikael if he thought the report and the resulting decision were too harsh or if the punishment was justified.
“I haven’t read the report,” Mikael told us.
“I think it was 70 or more. But I don’t know how they count the points when giving the punishment but it seemed like a big number.”
“I guess it is in correlation with the financial bridges in terms of the Fair Play rules. It’s common knowledge that they have been spending a lot of money on players, also during the years with players like Davy Klaasen.”
“Of course, they kept on spending money as they were fighting for relegation. They had to spend big and other clubs took advantage of their desperation.”
“But it was never a problem because of their owner at that time. On the sporting side, they can recover and get out of it. The other teams in the relegation battle are not in the best place, but mentally it will be tough for the players of course.”
“It’s definitely a tough situation for the club.”
Premier League relegation odds after Everton points deduction
Our projections show a 10-point would see Everton’s relegation chances leap from around 1 in 71 to around 1 in 5.
| Club | Relegation Before Deduction | Relegation After Deduction | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sheffield Utd | 96.2% | 94.7% | -1.5% |
| Luton | 87.1% | 83.5% | -3.6% |
| Burnley | 76.6% | 70.3% | -6.3% |
| Everton | 1.4% | 21.1% | 19.7% |
| Bournemouth | 17.9% | 14.7% | -3.2% |
| Fulham | 12.2% | 9.8% | -2.4% |
| Nottingham | 4.6% | 3.3% | -1.3% |
| Crystal Palace | 2.1% | 1.3% | -0.8% |
| Wolverhampton | 1.6% | 1.1% | -0.5% |
| West Ham | 0.3% | 0.2% | -0.1% |
The 10-point hit to the Toffees does, of course, affect the chances of the teams around them. Burnley, Bournemouth and Luton would be the biggest beneficiaries of events.
The only club in the mix that doesn’t see much of a change is Sheffield United. BETSiE expects the Blades to finish rock bottom of the table regardless of the 10-point hit for Sean Dyche’s side. Dyche remains amongst the favourites in the next Premier League manager to leave odds.
Galvanised Everton “will be a tough game for United”
Adversity can often galvanise a club and team. In our interview with Mikael Silvestre, we asked if he thought it could embolden the Toffees ahead of their meeting with his former side, Manchester United this weekend.
“I’m trying to think about the players’ mindset. Everton will continue,” Silvestre said.
“They’re on a good run and have been picking up points. So I think it will be a tough game for United.”
“Everytime when you come back from the international break, the coach has to pick up the pieces and it’s tough. Players are tired physically and mentally.”
“So, yeah it will be another test. The last few games for Man Utd, they’ve been winning apart from the derby obviously. The fighting spirit is there and they’ll need it against Everton.”
“Everton have had that since the beginning of the season. They know they are going to be in a dogfight and United has to at least be at the same intensity and aggression for that fixture.”
“The Premier League should be fair” on Manchester City charges
Man City of course are facing 115 charges and Chelsea are also under investigation. Do you expect them to be penalised or do you fear the rules could be different for clubs like them and the so-called smaller clubs like Everton?
“I think the Premier League should be fair in terms of the treatment,” Silvestre continued.
“Every club should be treated the same way, but again I don´t know the cases for Man City, I just know that the list was long.”
“It looked like Man City got away with it but they are still fighting with appeals. It seems like it will keep going on and it’s very tough for the clubs.”
“It’s good to have the financial fair play rules, because it prevents the clubs from bankruptcy and it creates a fair competition for all clubs in the league.”
“Any club at the top level is trying to find a way to surpass the opponent, so it´s very good to have those rules and now we have seen that the Premier League is ready to punish the clubs if the rules are broken.”
“For the football ecosystem, it’s very important that this is done properly.”
List of Premier League points deductions
| Team | Season | Points Deducted | Reason | Relegated? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Middlesbrough | 1996/97 | 3 | unauthorised postponement of a match | Yes |
| Portsmouth | 2012/13 | 10 | Entering administration | Yes |
| Everton | 2023/24 | 10 | Alleged breaches of Premier League profit and sustainability rules | TBD |
Everton’s points deduction has been confirmed. It equals the points deduction record in England’s top flight. In the Premier League era, only two other clubs have been deducted points during the season. Both were relegated after the charges.
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