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Mixed martial arts Euro 2021: Betting Lessons Learned
Euro 2021 has (finally) concluded. After five long weeks and 51 matches of football, Italy lifted the title.
Now is the time to learn what we can from the competition. Every player and national side will reflect on their performance during the tournament. Some outperformed expectations but for most, it’s a chance to learn lessons from mistakes.
Punters can do the same. There are betting lessons to learn from this competition that can help bettors extract value in future tournaments. After all, there are only 16 months until the 2022 World Cup kicks off.
Here are my five betting lessons to be learned from Euro 2021.
1. Back the Draw
The group draw and knockout stage path is the most important thing to consider in a major tournament. We expected this before things kicked off with that dreaded group of death. France, Germany and Portugal all played two matches against top sides before the group stage was over. That sapped attention and energy ahead of the knockout stage.
Meanwhile, teams like Italy and Belgium could rest key players for matchday 3. England and Spain had a nervier end to their group matches but their knockout stage draw was far kinder.
England, in particular, had a big logistical advantage. They had one of the better group-stage draws on paper and their toughest test was that round-of-16 match against Germany. Gareth Southgate’s men were certainly aided by the fact that they played six out of seven matches on home soil.
Each of the four semi-finalists played all their group stage matches in their home stadium. That’s hardly a coincidence.
2. Back the Draw
Draws are common in the knockout stage of major tournaments. Euro 2021 was no exception and, in fact, proved that point. Euro 2021 was the second-most profitable major tournament since 1998 for backing draws in knockout matches.
Backing the draw in each of the knockout matches at Euro 2021 had a profit of +13.18 units. That’s a yield of +87.9%. 8 of the 15 matches finished all square after 90 minutes. Only the 2014 World Cup had a higher yield for an individual tournament.
| MARKET | Games | DRAWS | Profit/Loss | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 15 | 8 | +13.18 | +87.9% |
3. Cards & Referees
There was an interesting trend towards the start of the tournament. Bookings were infrequent in the early stage of the tournament with an average of 1.83 per match in matchday 1. That figure rose to 3.41 by matchday 2 and 2.75 in matchday 3. There was clear value in backing under for cards in matchday 1 and over for matchday 2.
But punters could have also looked to the person with the whistle. The number of bookings varied depending on the referee. The tournament average was 2.90 yellows per match but Italy’s Daniele Orsato showed an average of 4.67 per match. The number dropped to 1.67 per match when Cuneyt Cakir officiated. Look at the referee stats early in the next major tournament and adjust accordingly.
| MATCHDAY | YELLOW CARDS / Game | RED CARDS / GAME |
|---|---|---|
| Matchday 1 | 1.83 | 0.083 |
| Matchday 2 | 3.41 | 0.000 |
| Matchday 3 | 2.75 | 0.083 |
| Round of 16 | 4.37 | 0.375 |
| Qtr Finals | 2.00 | 0.250 |
| Semi Finals | 2.50 | 0.000 |
4. Check the Pre-Tournament Form
Euro 2021 was a unique tournament. Most of the qualifying matches took place a full 18 months before the tournament kicked off. Injuries and changes in form or personnel were common during that time.
Turkey were the prime example. They were the ultimate disappointment with three defeats from three group stage matches. Turkey exited the tournament after only scoring one goal. They were the perceived dark horses after an eye-catching qualifying campaign. They won seven out of 10 matches and conceded only three times.
They were this tournament’s red herring. Turkey had an excellent campaign but their pre-tournament form was far closer to what we saw at Euro 2021. They won only five of their 14 matches before the tournament kicked off.
One side that performed well before the tournament was Italy. They won 21 of their 24 matches before the start of Euro 2020 and didn’t lose any. That’s why I gave them an A+ grade for betting value in our pre-tournament report cards.
5. Defence > Attack
The two finalists were the only two nations to keep three clean sheets in their group stage matches. That is not a coincidence. England were a prime example of this. 18 of the 23 other nations outscored them in the group stages but they still made it to the final.
Naturally, the sides that scored more goals went far in the competition. They played more matches but there are some interesting statistics. Before the final four, the two losing semi-finalists had actually outscored the two winning semi-finalists. Spain and Denmark both conceded far more goals than the Italians and the English.
The manner of goals is also important. Before the final, Italy and England only conceded one goal from open play between them. 75% of the goals those sides conceded before the showpiece came via set pieces or penalties. Compare that to 33.33% for the losing semi-finalists, Spain and Denmark.
