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Horse Racing History Says.....Back the Draw In The World Cup Knockout Stage
Betting the draw is an often neglected outcome in 1X2 betting. Whether it’s due to fans betting on their team to win as an expression of loyalty, faith or desperate hope. Or the casual neutral fan’s natural aversion to spending 90 minutes of their free time urging on a stalemate. Either way, few punters enjoy betting on the draw.
Due to the money wagered on either team to win in 1X2 betting, the odds for betting the draw can sometimes be inflated, purely as a matter of market dynamics.
Market margins (regularly around 4%) typically provide enough protection to the bookmaker. This prevents sharp bettors from simply finding value in odds artificially inflated by market dynamics. However identifying such opportunities can still provide a firm foundation to any betting analysis.
In this article:
In this analysis I will be taking a look at profitability of backing the draw through the knockout stages of both the Euro and World Cup tournaments.
Betting on the Draw In International Football
International football is often characterized as defensive, especially when it reaches the knockout stage of tournament play.
More defensive football means fewer goals. Fewer goals means a greater chance of a draw. But just how defensive is knockout stage international football?
And more to the point, is knockout stage international football more defensive than bookmaker odds have historically accounted for? Has betting the draw in the knockout stage of major international football tournaments been profitable?
In this article I will take a look at 1X2 betting results for the following tournaments:
Euros
- Euro 2000
- Euro 2004
- Euro 2008
- Euro 2012
- Euro 2016
- Euro 2021
World Cups
- World Cup 1998
- World Cup 2002
- World Cup 2006
- World Cup 2010
- World Cup 2014
- World Cup 2018
We will consider the profitability of betting at even stakes on the draw and Under 2.5 goals. Even stakes simply means betting the same sized stake on each bet. So for example, betting £1 on the draw in each Euro and World Cup knockout stage match.
Betting the Draw in Euro and World Cup Knockout Stages
| TOURNAMENT | Games | Draws | Draw Profit/Loss | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Euro | 58 | 24 | +22.1 | +38.1% |
| World Cup | 90 | 32 | +20.6 | +22.9% |
| Total | 148 | 56 | +42.7 | +28.9% |
Looking at the raw data, the answer is no, bookmakers have not historically accounted for the defensiveness of knockout stage international football and yes, it has been profitable to bet the draw.
We can see that backing the draw in all knockout stage matches at both the Euros and World Cup since 1998 has been extraordinarily profitable.
Had you bet £1 on the draw in each of the 58 Euro and 90 World Cup knockout stage matches since 1998, you would have made a profit of just under £43, a return of just under 29%.
Betting on the draw in the Euros would have returned a profit of over 38% on investment across the 58 knockout stage matches played across the 2000, 2004, 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2021 tournaments.
Betting on the draw in the World Cup would have returned a profit of almost 23% across the 90 knockout stage matches played across the 1998, 2002, 2006, 2010, 2014 and 2018 tournaments.
And in both cases this is betting into a standard 4% margin market 1X2 betting market. Taking the best odds available, the return would have been even greater.
Betting on the Draw at Each Stage of the Tournament
Looking at the data through each stage of the tournament we can see that a profit has been returned at every stage.
| STAGE | Games | Draws | Draw Profit/Loss | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Final | 12 | 6 | +6.63 | +55.3% |
| Semi Final | 24 | 10 | +8.58 | +35.8% |
| Qtr Final | 48 | 17 | +7.6 | +15.8% |
| Rnd of 16 | 64 | 23 | +19.89 | +31.1% |
| Total | 148 | 56 | +42.7 | +28.9% |
Betting on the Draw Tournament to Tournament
Of the 12 tournaments in this analysis, backing the draw in the knockout stage has returned a profit in 8 with the worst results coming in the World Cups of 1998 and 2010 and the Euros of 2012 and 2016.
Best results? The World Cup of 2014 delivered over 16 units of profit from 15 units wagered while the Euros of 2021 returned near 14 units from 15 units wagered.
| Tournament | Year | Games | Draws | Draw PROFIT/LOSS | Yield % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| World Cup | 1998 | 15 | 4 | -0.76 | -5.1% |
| Euro | 2000 | 7 | 3 | +3.00 | +42.9% |
| World Cup | 2002 | 15 | 5 | +1.26 | +8.4% |
| Euro | 2004 | 7 | 3 | +3.01 | +43.0% |
| World Cup | 2006 | 15 | 6 | +4.44 | +29.6% |
| Euro | 2008 | 7 | 3 | +3.45 | +49.3% |
| World Cup | 2010 | 15 | 4 | -1.98 | -13.2% |
| Euro | 2012 | 7 | 2 | -0.76 | -10.9% |
| World Cup | 2014 | 15 | 8 | +16.18 | +107.9% |
| Euro | 2016 | 15 | 5 | -0.29 | -1.9% |
| World Cup | 2018 | 15 | 5 | +1.46 | +9.7% |
| Euro | 2021 | 15 | 8 | +13.69 | +91.3% |
| Total | 148 | 56 | +42.7 | +28.9% |
Conclusion: Consider Backing the Draw
Firstly, the standard disclaimers: do not bet blindly into any market based on an analysis of historical betting odds, no matter how significant the observed trend may appear.
Bookmakers are not stupid and are more than capable of identifying soft markets that could be exploited by sharp bettors.
Further, we are talking of a sample size of only 148 matches, and in the case of the Euros, a sample size of 58 matches across six tournaments played across a time span of 20 years. Much has changed in the world of betting and market framing during that time. The data available to bookmakers and their technical capacity to frame markets in 2022 is profoundly different to what it was in 2000 or even 2016 for that matter.
However, despite the cliche of knockout stage football being more defensive, we can in fact see that knockout stage international football is defensive and even more defensive than bookmaker odds have accounted for in Euro and World Cup 1X2 market since 1998.
While I do not recommend betting blindly into the draw, do take this analysis into account when profiling matches for the knockout stage matches at the 2022 World Cup.
