England vs Iceland Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

This friendly is Gareth Southgate’s last chance before the European Championships to play around with his squad, and with that, Josh Ingram has prepared a England vs Iceland prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. It’s likely that Southgate will start a few more of his important players to get valuable minutes going into the tournament. 

England now face an Iceland side who suffered heartbreak in the Euros qualification playoff in March, which means they don’t have a meaningful game until September. It’s an opponent who England beat twice in the Nations League four years ago and should beat again on Friday night at Wembley.

• England vs Iceland Tip 1: England Win to Nil and Under 5 Goals
• England vs Iceland Tip 2: HT/FT: England/England and Under 9.5 England Shots on Target

England vs Iceland Prediction 1: Solid at the back

England, International Friendly, Friday, June 6th, 19:45 (UK)

England are expected to win this game in Southgate’s last chance to experiment with his side before the cull down to a 26-man squad. 

The game vs Bosnia saw an experimental eleven, which didn’t create much for 60 minutes. However, England’s performance notably improved once key players were introduced. There was consistency throughout, and they looked solid at the back. Granted, Bosnia didn’t create much – just one shot during the entire game. I expect a similar display against Iceland, limiting them to few shots and big chances.

England only conceded four goals in an unbeaten qualifying campaign, with four clean sheets in those six wins, and two draws. Southgate’s sides tend to often be risk-averse, looking for a shut-out at the back as a priority. Due to England’s level of possession and overall game control expected in this game, a clean sheet would be a likely conclusion.

Iceland have scored in their last four consecutive games. The last time they failed to score was against Portugal. When analysing Iceland’s games against teams are at a similar level to England, they have struggled to find the net. Since 2021, they have lost to Germany and Portugal twice, and to Spain once, all without scoring. When the opposition is of a certain quality, they struggle to create chances. It’s also worth noting that they are a side that finished 12 points behind second-place Slovakia in qualifying, with their only wins coming twice against Liechtenstein and a 1-0 win against Bosnia. 

Only once in the last 13 games since the World Cup has an England game gone over 4.5 goals, which was against North Macedonia in a 7-0 win. During that same time, they have won five of these games to nil. 

• England vs Iceland Prediction 1: England Win to Nil and Under 5 Goals (Bet Builder) 
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7/10 

England vs Iceland Prediction 2: Out of the traps early for a change

There are instances of England leading at halftime, but this has not been a standard feature for Southgate’s sides in recent games. Often, there has been significant room for improvement at halftime. Highlighted when watching the first half against Bosnia, it was lacklustre, and England looked pedestrian. In the second half, after the 60th-minute penalty, England dominated on all levels, having 20 shots in the second half alone. 

Southgate after the Bosnia game regarding starting options for Friday: “Even for players who have played a lot of football they still need rhythm of playing matches. Friday becomes an important exercise for us.” 

Expecting a relatively strong outfit to start for England, Southgate suggested that Kane’s minutes are a priority by saying, “I have got to get Harry Kane right.” If England were to win the Euros, it would be due to a fit and firing Harry Kane, so him starting, getting minutes, and scoring goals will be on Southgate’s mind. 

Southgate will want the game won by halftime so he can make the changes to keep his leading men free from injury. 

The last time England had ten shots on target was in a 7-0 win vs North Macedonia. Since then, England have participated in nine games without hitting that margin. Since 2020, it has only happened two other times, both against San Marino. Even against Bosnia, England had 25 shots and managed eight on target. I expect Iceland to show a bit more fight than Bosnia did, so I wouldn’t expect England to get as close to ten shots on target as we saw on Monday night. 

During the qualifying campaign and friendlies, England HT/FT has landed in six out of 13 matches, while five out of those six times, England’s shots on target fell under 9.5. When England are ahead at halftime, they naturally tend to have low output in terms of second half shots on target due to not having to be as aggressive. 

• England vs Iceland Prediction 2: HT/FT: England/England and Under 9.5 England Shots on Target
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

England vs Iceland Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, June 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

England vs Iceland  Team News and Possible Lineups: Key players return for England but Iceland lacking

After being granted an extra day off, Kobbie Mainoo, Phil Foden, and Kyle Walker join the squad. They, as Southgate said, will be thrown into the reckoning. England are still without Bellingham, who’s joining the team on Saturday after Real Madrid’s Champions League success. Southgate’s side is still missing Shaw, Gordon, and Maguire due to injuries. Saka and Stones are back and in contention for minutes after recent knocks. A far stronger eleven is expected for England to start on Friday evening.

Iceland are missing four players who were in the squad vs Ukraine last time out. Two strikers, Finnbogason and Genoa’s Gudmundsson. Gudmundsson is the big miss; he scored four in his previous two for Iceland. Former Burnley man Gudmundsson is in the squad with a mix of reasonably young players. 

England Possible Starting Lineup:

Pickford; Walker, Stones, Guehi, Trippier; Alexander-Arnold, Rice; Saka, Bellingham, Foden; Kane

Iceland Possible Starting Lineup: 

Valdimarsson; Sampsted, Ingason, Gretarsson, Thorarinsson; Thorsteinsson, Gudmundsson, Traustason, Haraldsson; Gudjohnsen, Oskarsson

Match Stats: Iceland’s long struggle against the big nations

• Played each other three times, two England wins and one Iceland win.
• There has been at least one red card in two of the most recent three meetings in the Nations League in 2020.
• Last time Iceland beat someone in the top 20 rankings was Croatia in 2017, who were ranked 18th.
• Harry Kane scored the most penalty goals in the whole of qualifying with 4/4.

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