Early Bird Tips for Serie A: A Champion's Reaction and The ‘Dream Partnership’ For Mou

It was a reality check for Napoli when, after last campaign’s defeat, they crashed once again against Lazio’s strong and organised defence. The Champions of Italy need to bounce back, and I’m confident they’ll get the job done at Marassi on Saturday night.

The Azzurri have the opportunity to get closer to Inter Milan and AC Milan, who play each other on the same day, only a couple of hours earlier.

For this week’s Serie A Early Bird Tips, I’ve also chosen Roma, who should count on both Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku from the start and two of the most entertaining sides so far, Verona and Bologna, who face each other in the Monday night game.

• Early Bird Tips for Genoa vs Napoli: Napoli Win
• Early Bird Tips for Roma vs Empoli: Roma to Score Over 1.5 Goals
• Early Bird Tips for Verona vs Bologna: Over 2.25 Goals

Acca odds: 4.84

Odds via bet365 as at 8pm Monday, September 11th. Odds may now differ.

Genoa vs Napoli: an opportunity to close the gap with the leaders

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, September, 16th, 7:45pm (UK)

Six months apart, same story. Lazio again outsmarted Napoli at the Maradona, as Sarri’s men resisted the initial pressure and were clinical on the break. Napoli took charge of the game in their 2-1 defeat on matchday three, but after 30 minutes, it looked like they ran out of ideas. With some of their key players, like Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, not in top form, Napoli struggled to create clear-cut chances in the second half and often got caught on the break.

It’s still too early to press the panic button, but it is clear that Napoli are suffering from the absence of Kim Min-jae at the back. So far, the man bought to be his natural replacement, the Brazilian Natan, hasn’t seen the pitch, and Juan Jesus is struggling to read the game as well as the South Korean defender did. For the first couple of weeks, Napoli have rested on their laurels, but now it’s time for Rudi Garcia to show how he can improve on this team.

Genoa did not do much to win the game in Torino and got punished by a fantastic solo goal in stoppage time by Nemanja Radonjic. The Rossoblù are difficult to read at the moment: they have got good players up front, from Mateo Retegui to Ruslan Malinovskyi, but spend most of the time defending their own area.

Genoa are bottom for shots in Serie A (16 – Napoli are top with 66), and corners taken (only 4, again here Napoli are the leaders with 25). Unless Alberto Gilardino’s men show more initiative, I feel they’re going to be beaten comfortably.

• Selection: Napoli Win
• Best Odds: 1.70
• Bookmaker: bet365

Roma vs Empoli: time to shine for Rom and Paulo

Italy, Serie A, Sunday, September, 17th, 7:45pm (UK)

The wait is almost over: it looks like we should finally be able to see Paulo Dybala and Romelu Lukaku playing together from the start on Sunday. The partnership that Inter Milan’s sporting director, Beppe Marotta, tried to form in Milan only a year ago now represents Josè Mourinho’s biggest chance to finish in the top four.

Looking at the Serie A table, you might be forgiven for thinking this is a relegation six-pointer. The hosts have had a terrible start to the season: luck was not on their side (they conceded five shots against Salernitana and Verona, resulting in four goals), but they also looked well behind AC Milan’s level on matchday three. However, Roma have had Dybala only for one of their first three games. When Lukaku came on as a substitute against AC Milan, the Giallorossi created more thanks to the Belgian’s ability to hold the ball.

In his third season in charge, Mourinho needs Roma to start playing better football, and this game against Empoli, who haven’t yet scored a goal, represents a good opportunity to boost the team’s morale.

The visitors are a young side, with promising talents such as Tommaso Baldanzi and Nicolò Cambiaghi, but they haven’t kept a clean sheet in their last 13 competitive games. Last year, Empoli lost both matches against Roma, 2-1 at the Castellani and 2-0 at the Stadio Olimpico.

• Selection: Roma to Score Over 1.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.61
• Bookmaker: bet365

Verona vs Bologna: Monday night could be fun at the Bentegodi

Italy, Serie A, Monday, September, 18th, 7:45pm (UK)

Despite their 3-1 defeat at Sassuolo, Verona are the real positive surprise of the Serie A season so far. They won back-to-back games, as it happened only twice in their history in Italy’s top flight, and they feature a very prolific striker, Cyril Ngonge. In 2023, the Belgian scored seven goals in 18 matches, helping his side to achieve salvation last year.

This summer, Verona hired Marco Baroni as their new manager in the hope that he could bring with him some of the defensive organisation his previous club, Lecce, showed in 2022/2023. So far, defensively speaking, Verona have not been great; in fact, they should have conceded at least one more goal based on xG data (5.47 against 4), and they were lucky to keep a clean sheet against Empoli. However, up front, they’ve got good options of both quick and young players, former Barcelona’s cantera Jordi Mboula, for example, and experienced Serie A journeymen such as Riccardo Saponara, Federico Bonazzoli, and Milan Djuric. Last season, they only scored 31 goals, but so far, their numbers look more promising.

Bologna got what they deserved on matchday three as they came from behind to beat Cagliari in stoppage time. Let’s not forget, the week before, they were denied a clear penalty in Torino against Juventus when they were winning a game that eventually finished 1-1.

The Felsinei are, undoubtedly, one of the sides that play the best brand of football in Italy, and now they have added Jesper Karlsson (35 goals in 89 games with AZ Alkmaar) to their attacking line-up. Furthermore, Lewis Ferguson, Joshua Zirkzee, and Dan Ndoye have all got goals and assists in them.

Last season, Bologna conceded 35 times on the road (Italy’s fifth worst defence), and Verona were the worst domestic defence (32 goals conceded): two more reasons why I feel this Asian line is worth a stab.

• Selection: Over 2.25 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.77
• Bookmaker: bet365

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