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Horse Racing Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Lens to build on fantastic performance last week
After a full house of winners in each of the last two weeks (MD9 & MD10) we are back for more France Ligue 1 early bird tips. Steve Wyss has been finding ‘Unders’ value in this league recently and once again is drinking from that same well in the Sunday prime time game as unbeaten Nice take on Rennes.
Elsewhere, Lens made such a big impression last week it might be finally time to get them onside, whilst Patrick Vieira’s Strasbourg are showing no real signs of improving. His dour brand of football is very opposable right now and Clermont could be in a good spot.
- Early Bird Tips for Lorient vs Lens: Lens to win
- Strasbourg vs Clermont: Clermont +0.25 Asian Handicap
- Nice vs Rennes: Under 2.5 Goals
Early Bird Tips Acca odds: 5.97
Early Bird Tips Acca Odds via bet365 as at Tuesday 31st October 01:34. Odds may now differ.
Lorient vs Lens: Eyes on Lens to stay red hot
France, Ligue 1, Saturday 4th November, 16:00 (UK)
The striking performance of the last matchday was Lens beating Nantes 4-0. There had been no signs of a result like that coming. Lens have been below par for much of the season, whilst Nantes have been no mugs. Completely out of the blue, though, Lens produced a performance which was reminiscent of last season’s brilliant campaign. They were dominant and had full control of proceedings. Maybe it was a sign that they are back, and my gut feeling is to start riding their potential hot wave again. The Champions League will be a potential complication, but this week, they’ve had a full week of rest ahead of this Saturday afternoon showdown at Le Stade Moustoir.
Lorient are a very up-and-down team capable of anything on the day, but Lens certainly enjoyed playing against them last season, beating them in all three competitive meetings and scoring a combined nine goals in the process. Lorient love facing teams who attack and overcommit themselves, whilst themselves waiting for the opportunity to break. Lens are a very similar outfit but just have better efficiency and quality of players. Lorient have conceded 20 goals so far this season and have the fourth-worst xGA in Ligue 1. They are legitimately poor defensively, and Lens will certainly get their chances here.
Victories at home to both Lille and Rennes show that Lorient cannot be taken lightly, but Lens are likely to be more sensible and assert more control on the game. They will be less open tactically to being blown apart by some strong counters. Last week’s performance and result might prove to be a one-off, but if Lens plays anything like that here, they will comfortably have enough to win. Odds of 1.80 might not last long, so take this one early because, let’s not forget, Lens are a team in the Champions League and possesses excellent quality.
Strasbourg vs Clermont: Alsatians lacking bark
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 5th November, 14:00 (UK)
Strasbourg managed to rescue a late draw away against Rennes last week (1-1) to ease some pressure on manager Patrick Vieira after a torrid run of games. Les Alsatians are only 14th in the Ligue 1 table, just a couple of points clear of the relegation zone. Vieira has started to develop a very negative brand of football at the club, and even last week, they were lucky to escape with a draw.
It didn’t look like Strasbourg were going to score, and they don’t generally create enough chances under this manager. They have an overall xG of less than ten and, in recent times, have especially lacked teeth in the final third of the field.
This is a very winnable match for Strasbourg, but they will surely feel the weight and pressure of expectations. Fans, the general public and the media will fully expect them to have too much for lowly Clermont, but that could work against the home side here. The last time that Strasbourg were a home favourite, they produced a stinker of a display against Nantes and were comprehensively outplayed that night. Clermont are second bottom of the Ligue 1 table but have improved recently. They ground out a tough 2-1 win at Lyon and were competitive against top-of-the-table Nice last week, only losing 0-1. Clermont also received news this week that they will get a full replay against Montpellier after the abandonment a few weeks ago.
The two value bets that stick out here are under 2.25 goals and Clermont +0.25 Asian handicap. It is clear to see that Strasbourg are not rated very much by the bookies. Otherwise, they would be a much clearer favourite. Their overall metrics are alarmingly poor, and they will not enjoy being a media and public favourite.
Because both teams fancy the win, then I prefer taking the away handicap. There is a chance that this fixture might open up, but Clermont can pick off Strasbourg on the break and relish being the underdog. This could be another frustrating game for the Strasbourg fans, and Clermont on a +0.25 Asian line looks like a strong option.
Nice vs Rennes: Expect tight and cagey affair on the south coast
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 5th November, 20:00 (UK)
Nice are the surprise pacesetters at the summit of the Ligue 1 table and remain the only unbeaten side in the French top flight. It has been a brilliant start to life on the south coast for young Italian manager Francesco Fariolii, and the key to their success has been some brilliant defensive metrics.
Les Aiglons won 1-0 at Clermont last week, the fourth time in five games they won by that exact scoreline. Nice have kept seven clean sheets out of ten, with only PSG managing to breach them more than once this season. They have by far the best defensive record in Ligue 1, and this has been no fluke, with an xGA of 7.44, which is clearly better than any other side.
Rennes have the tough challenge of travelling to the Allianz Riviera this weekend, where Nice have only conceded one goal, which was way back on the opening night of the season. Fans have not been treated to many wild encounters, with just five total goals being netted at this venue in five games. Nice have a lot of control of matches and play with a paradise and organized style.
Rennes are known for having issues on the road and could lack penetration here. The Breton visitors have drawn 6 out of 10 games in Ligue 1 this season and were kicking themselves at being held 1-1 vs Strasbourg at home last week. They have made too many individual mistakes defensively, and that does not bode well ahead of this game.
Once again, under 2.5 goals looks to be a huge value bet with Nice involved. Nine of their ten fixtures have ended under 2.5 this season, with 6 of those resulting in fewer than 1.5 goals. This is likely to be a cagey and tight clash this Sunday evening, and one goal might be the difference between the two sides.
Under 2.5 can be backed as big as 1.86, probably only because of Rennes’ attacking reputation. They are up against a defensive machine that will be remarkably hard to penetrate, so I’m happy to get on the Unders again.
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