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Horse Racing Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Tight clash expected between newly promoted outfits
It clearly paid off to back two ‘Unders’ selections last week, so this time around in the Early Bird tips for Ligue 1, our expert Steve Wyss is heading back to drink from the ‘Unders’ well. There are some surprisingly high goal lines in French football right now, something we’ll eagerly take a look at once again.
The two newly promoted teams in Metz and Le Havre are set to do battle, and neither will want to lose. Patrick Vieira continues to offer up negative gameplans, which is hindering Strasbourg’s scoring ability, so he’ll look to shut down Rennes this week. Meanwhile, Montpellier will be hoping their own fans behave when they take on a Toulouse side who have just faced Liverpool in the Europa League.
- Metz vs Le Havre: Under 2.25 Goals
- Montpellier vs Toulouse: Montpellier -0.75 Asian Handicap
- Rennes vs Strasbourg: Under 2.5 Goals
Acca odds: 5.76
Odds via bet365 as at 11:52, Monday 23rd October. Odds may now differ.
Metz vs Le Havre: Tight and cagey battle expected between two promoted teams
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 29th October, 14:00 (UK)
It was expected that both teams would struggle mightily this season. Recent signs are that we are reaching the stage of the campaign where the step up to Ligue 1 is becoming challenging. Metz are on a run of four straight defeats, with the only goal they scored during this period the outrageous strike Lamine Camara had vs Monaco last week from the halfway line. They are desperately struggling to create chances and convert them. Les Grenats have the worst xG in the whole of Ligue 1 (6.11) and are crying out for some extra help in attack. Losing their key Georgian striker Georges Mikautadze to Ajax late in the transfer window did not help them.
Le Havre have been the better of the two promoted teams and have ten points after nine games. The Normandy outfit has also started to drift recently, though, and lost two of their last three games, failing to hit the back of the net in each contest. They drew 0-0 at home to Lens last week but conceded a lot of chances early on and were lucky to escape with a point. Le Havre are one of the biggest overachieving defensive sides in Ligue 1. They’ve only conceded 12 goals, but their xGA is 15.98. They were similar last season and relied on some great blocks and top goalkeeping from custodian Arthur Desmas.
Both meetings last season in Ligue 2 contained precisely two goals, with this particular fixture resulting in a 1-1 draw. With neither team particularly confident right now, it makes sense to expect a tight contest, one which nobody will want to lose. A draw would be very acceptable, and 0-0 could have a big chance of landing. The 2.25 goal line looks too high, and taking Unders here feels like a great value selection.
Montpellier vs Toulouse: Visitors vulnerable to Europa League hangover
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 29th October, 14:00 (UK)
The last time that Montpellier played at home, the match was abandoned late, with the hosts 4-2 up against Clermont. One idiot stupidly threw a firecracker at the opposition goalkeeper, and his actions could potentially cost Montpellier that match and a point deduction. The outcome will be decided in the disciplinary courts this week, and at the time of writing, we don’t know the result. Let’s not forget that Montpellier played pretty well that day, though, and prior to that, they beat Lorient 3-0 on the road. They were disappointed to lose 0-2 at Nantes last weekend, but they still created chances.
This could be a great spot to play against Toulouse because the visitors only have three days of rest after their Europa League clash away to Liverpool. That type of fixture is a huge occasion for someone like Toulouse, and to recover both mentally and physically will be a challenge. The other problem for Toulouse is that they feel like a bang-average side at best this season. Les Violets especially look vulnerable defensively with an xGA of 14.76, masking the fact they’ve only shipped in 10 goals.
Montpellier are clear, deserving favourites here and should collect all three points. They will be focused and in a great position to take advantage of any Toulouse tiredness. Backing the home team on a -0.75 Asian handicap looks like the best option for this affair on the south coast.
Rennes vs Strasbourg: Defensive gameplan from Vieira points towards fewer goals
France, Ligue 1, Sunday 29th October, 16:05 (UK)
It’s not been the season which Rennes had been hoping for so far. The Brittany club went unbeaten in all of their first seven contests but drew too many times and have now followed that up with successive defeats vs PSG and Lorient. They should never have lost at Lorient last week because they were the better side, but some poor defensive mistakes cost them dearly. Rennes have the tough challenge of travelling away to Panathinaikos in the Europa League this Thursday and could be a bit flat as a result.
Strasbourg will aim to frustrate their opponents in this fixture. We know how their manager, Patrick Vieira, will set up here. He only knows one way in most games, especially on the road. Strasbourg have become a very boring side under his management and have an appalling combined xG of just 1.39 in away fixtures! They are simply not creating many opportunities, and Vieira would rather sit back and play for a 0-0 or hope for a 1-0 win.
His tactics might actually be quite effective this week because Rennes are unlikely to be at their best or very fresh following their midweek trip to Greece. A low-scoring draw or even a tight Strasbourg win can’t be ruled out. Under 2.5 goals looks like a good bet, considering how hard it might be for Rennes to break them down. There is a history of goals in Rennes home games, but taking the Unders looks like the best value option on this occasion.
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