Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Lyon still looking for first win

Ligue 1 returns after the international break and we have the best early bird tips for you from the French top flight. PSG have been inconsistent this season and face the challenge of breaking down Patrick Vieira’s Strasbourg outfit.

There’s a south coast derby between OGC Nice vs Marseille as Gennaro Gatusso looks to become the first team to beat Nice this season. A fierce, tense and close clash is to be expected.

Meanwhile, at the bottom of the table the only two sides without a win face off when Lyon play host to Clermont. Can Les Gones finally get a victory on the board?
All the above and more below with our expert, Steve Wyss.

• PSG vs Strasbourg: Under 3.25 Goals
• Nice vs Marseille: Under 2.5 Goals
• Lyon vs Clermont: Clermont +0.75 Asian Handicap

Acca odds: 5.11

Early Bird tips for Ligue 1 Odds via bet365 as at 00:50 Tuesday 17th October. Odds may now differ.

PSG vs Strasbourg: Vieira negativity can lead to a dour game in the capital

France Ligue 1, Saturday 21st October, 16:00 (UK)

It’s never usually a bad time to face PSG immediately after an international break. They are known to produce some sloppy and below-par performances and only do the bare minimum required to win. This feels like one of those types of fixtures, especially as they have a massive match against AC Milan in the Champions League to focus on in midweek. In this game, they will take on a Strasbourg side, who will likely just come and park the bus. This is the typical way that their manager, Patrick Vieira, approaches away games, primarily when operating as a big underdog. We saw him do that many times before at Nice and Crystal Palace, so not much is likely to change here.

Strasbourg have won one road game thus far and lost twice. They have the lowest xG of any team away from home (1.17), which is a pretty appalling statistic considering they’ve been to the likes of Metz and Monaco. Vieira is the problem, and he rarely unleashes his attacking players much in these types of games, preferring to stay as compact as possible. PSG might actually get frustrated here, especially in a match where they lack focus.

This smells of a low-scoring home victory, 1-0 or 2-0, and it’ll likely be an uninspiring game of football. Strasbourg are unlikely to trouble the scorers, so under 3.25 goals stands out as a good bet. For this bet to lose, then PSG would probably have to win 4-0 or greater, something they are capable of doing but are unlikely to want to rack up the score with a big midweek match upcoming.

• Selection: Under 3.25 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: bet365

Nice vs Marseille: Local derby can result in low scoring tense affair

France Ligue 1, Saturday 21st October, 21:00 (UK)

New Marseille manager Gennaro Gattuso will have been pleased to have two weeks to work with his players. His appointment was all very sudden and came at a time when fixtures were piled high with congestion. Ultimately, he didn’t do too badly in his first three games. OM put up a good performance away to Monaco and only just lost 2-3. They drew 2-2 vs Brighton in the Europa League before claiming a comfortable 3-0 success vs Le Havre. Gattuso has continually said that Marseille needs to ‘defend much better’, so it would be understandable if he has worked on that aspect of the game heavily in the last couple of weeks. We might see a robust and hard-to-break-down Marseille in this south coast derby.

Nice are the only remaining unbeaten team in Ligue 1 and certainly command respect this season under new manager Francesco Farioli. He has employed a strong control element of tactic this term, and Nice have a tremendous defensive record, having conceded just four goals. Les Aiglons have been legitimately strong at the back with the best xGA of any team (6.14). When you consider the fact they’ve already faced sides such as PSG, Monaco, Lille & high-flying Brest, then this record is even more impressive.

Nice are favourites around the 2.40 mark, which seems fair. There is a fierce rivalry between these teams, so we could see a lot of fouls, a high card count and a stop-start type of match. With Nice being so tough to score against and Marseille perhaps focusing more on defence, then Under 2.5 Goals stands out as a good option. 7 out of 8 Nice fixtures have ended under 2.5 this season, and plenty of aspects point towards them, adding to that tally here.

• Selection: Under 2.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365

Lyon vs Clermont: Keep betting against overrated Lyon in basement battle

France Ligue 1, Sunday 22nd October, 19:45 (UK)

The two remaining winless teams in Ligue 1 meet at the Groupama Stadium, where Lyon plays, hosting Clermont. It has been a turbulent campaign for Les Gones, who have lost five and drawn eight of their fixtures. OL have conceded 16 goals, which is one of the worst defensive records of any side. New manager Fabio Grosso has been in charge for three of those fixtures, and it looked like they were finally on course for a victory vs Lorient when they led 3-1. Lyon once again showed their fragility by blowing such an advantage.

Clermont drew 0-0 vs PSG not too long ago, but they remain the other winless side in the division. Their squad is weak, and on paper, it’s no real surprise to see them struggle. Their fixture just prior to the international break was abandoned against Montpellier due to a firecracker that hit goalkeeper Mory Diaw. They were losing 2-4 at the time, but the outcome of that game will be decided by the disciplinary committee on 25th October. Despite being rock bottom, there are six teams with a worse xGA than Clermont, and they have underachieved in front of goal by a 2.46 margin. They are maybe not quite as bad as the league table might suggest.

Lyon have remarkably kicked off as favourites in four of their eight games and been odds-on in three of those clashes. Anyone backing them has been on the way to the poorhouse, and they’ve offered no value whatsoever, covering their Asian handicap line just one time, which was a 0-0 away to Nice. Clermont won this fixture last season and will enjoy being an underdog. Taking the visitors on a +0.75 Asian Handicap line looks like a decent option because Lyon do not deserve to be such a short-priced favourite vs anyone right now.

• Selection: Clermont +0.75 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.97
• Bookmaker: bet365

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