Early Bird Tips for Ligue 1: Brest Aiming to Stay on Top

The French Ligue 1 table has a surprising leader after six rounds, and Steve Wyss brings you the best early bird tips for Ligue 1 for the weekend ahead. Can Brest stay at the summit when they travel to Nice on Sunday?

Meanwhile, Lens finally got their season off and running with a victory, so they will be looking to kick on vs Patrick Vieira’s Strasbourg outfit. Over in Brittany, one of the prime-time Sunday games sees Lorient vs Montpellier, with the home side intent on remaining unbeaten on their own patch.

• Early Bird Strasbourg vs Lens: Over 2.5 Goals
• Early Bird Nice vs Brest: Brest +0.75 Asian Handicap
• Early Bird Lorient vs Montpellier: Lorient +0.0 Asian Handicap

Acca odds: 5.74

Odds via bet365 as at 09:28 BST Monday 25th September. Odds may now differ.

Strasbourg vs Lens: Goals to flow in Eastern France

France Ligue 1, Friday 29th September, 20:00 (UK)

Both teams head into the match on the back of respective wins at the weekend. Strasbourg claimed a late 1-0 success away to bitter rivals Metz, which was a big result for head coach Patrick Vieira. The former Crystal Palace boss has not had a bad start to life in Eastern France, with Les Alsatians currently sitting fifth in the Ligue 1 table. They are unbeaten at home with seven points from a possible nine, and so far, all of their home fixtures have been much more exciting. Viera is known for his cautious approach on the road, but Strasbourg have scored two goals in all games at Le Stade de la Meinau.

Travelling here for this Friday night showdown is a Lens side who have endured difficulties this season. Les Sang et Or have enjoyed a rebound, though, by obtaining a creditable 1-1 draw away to Sevilla in the Champions League, followed up by a 2-1 success in Ligue 1 vs Toulouse. That was their first victory of the season and enough to see them climb off the bottom of the table. Lens have been underachieving with all metrics at both ends of the field and are -3.32 behind on expected points. It’s probably just a matter of time before their results regress to the mean. I think they’ll have more confidence to let their football flow after the relief of victory, and this could be a decent and open game.

Two out of three Strasbourg home games have ended with over 2.5 goals, and the other ended 2-0. There is always a great atmosphere inside this stadium, and these two teams match up well. Last season, the two head-to-head encounters ended 2-1 and 2-2, respectively. I expect the goals to flow again, so taking a straight over 2.5 line makes sense.

• Selection: Over 2.5 Goals
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365

Nice vs Brest: Ligue 1 table toppers Nice price on the French Riviera

France Ligue 1, Sunday 1st October, 14:00 (UK)

Brest is in an absolute dream world right now. They remarkably sit at the top of the Ligue 1 standings after six rounds, a situation nobody could have foreseen when manager Eric Roy took over at the helm back in January when they were in significant relegation trouble. He averages 1.62 points per game from 29 Brest fixtures since being in control, and he must be given a ton of credit for this turnaround. The big positive for the Brittany outfit is that their stats and metrics are legitimate. Brest have actually UNDER achieved their xGA of 11.94 by only netting eight times, and their expected points of 11.46 is close to their actual tally of 13. They’ve already faced teams such as Marseille Lens & Rennes, so it’s not as if their fixture list has been totally soft.

This might be their toughest test yet, facing a trip to the Allianz Riviera against an unbeaten Nice outfit. Francesco Farioli’s Aiglons head into this game on the back of three successive wins, the most recent being victories away to PSG and Monaco. There was more than a hint of fortune about their recent win vs Monaco, though, with goalkeeper Marcin Bulka saving two penalties before Jeremie Boga nicked a late winner. It has nevertheless been an impressive start to the campaign for Nice, and you must take your luck when you can get it. Nice have the second-best xGA of any team (5.72), and this has been the cornerstone of their success.

I do think Brest represents some value on a +0.75 Asian Handicap here, though. I suspect this will be a tight game with under 2.5 also meriting strong consideration. Brest are capable of getting at least a point using a style which will force Nice to break them down. They can keep it close at the very least and look overpriced.

• Selection: Brest +0.75 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: bet365

Lorient vs Montpellier: Bretons too big in home surroundings

France Ligue 1, Sunday 1st October, 16:05 (UK)

Both teams have been okay this season, but a lack of victories is starting to become a frustration. Lorient and Montpelier have each drawn 3 out of 6 league games and obtained just one victory. For Lorient, their last two away games have been incredibly disappointing. After drawing 0-0 vs PSG in game week one, they have since lost 0-3 vs Le Havre and 3-4 vs Nantes. The Breton derby against Nantes in the previous round was a crazy game of football which highlighted their defensive deficiencies. Things have been better at home, though, where they’ve drawn vs Nice & Monaco whilst also beating Lille 4-1. Here at Le Stade Moustoir, Les Merlus are tough to beat and often plays on the counter-attack at a fast pace.

Montpellier are starting to become a difficult team to predict. They looked like they were becoming a reliable over 2.5 banker sort of side but two recent results have put doubts on that, especially the 0-0 vs Rennes last week. That was their first clean sheet of the season and generally deserved, considering they reduced Rennes to few clear opportunities. It is difficult to know exactly which version of Montpellier will show up. The 4-1 win at Lyon in matchday two is now looking like less of a good result facing what is now a team in crisis. They are winless in four straight games and stuttered a bit at times. They offered very little when they lost 0-1 vs Lille, and some of their metrics and stats are distorted by that aforementioned Lyon victory.

Montpellier have a surprisingly good record in this H2H and won at this venue to nil on all of their last three visits. But they should not be the favourite here. The value lies with Lorient, and taking them on a +0 Asian Handicap at odds-against looks like a solid sort of bet. They should get a point at worst, and if they play like they did vs Lille during the 4-1 win, then this price could look extremely generous.

• Selection: Lorient +0.0 Asian Handicap
• Best Odds: 2.13
• Bookmaker: bet365

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