Early Bird Tips for EFL: Back on the hunt for early value in the lower tiers of England

There is no midweek league action to delay our search for three Early Bird Tips for the EFL ahead of the weekend games.

Two sides relegated from the Premier League in contrasting form meet in the Championship. While a surprise package and the league’s top scorers both go in search of three points in the League Two.

A clean sweep gives Jack Wright odds of 8.21.

• Early Bird Tips for Southampton vs Leeds: Leeds Over 1.5 Goals
• Early Bird Tips for Crawley vs Sutton: Crawley to Win
• Early Bird Tips for Swindon vs Grimsby: Swindon to Win

Acca odds: 8.21

Odds via William Hill as at 09:26 September 25th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Southampton vs Leeds: Saints marching down the table as defence continues to sin

England, Championship, Saturday, September 30th, 15:00 (UK)

After a positive, if not overly impressive, start to their Championship campaign, Southampton have now lost four successive league games. In their first season back in the second tier following relegation in May, they find themselves down in 15th place.

That is a total of 11 points adrift of Leicester, one of the sides that joined them falling through the Premier League trapdoor and only five points clear of the bottom three. With new manager Russell Martin at the helm, changes to the infrastructure, and the loss of key players such as influential skipper James Ward-Prowse, the Saints are in transition.

Here, they meet the third member of the parachute regiment in Leeds. They, too, have a new manager in place in the form of Daniel Farke.

The former Norwich boss and double title winner at this level proved two things at the weekend. Firstly, he can control a ball dropping from 100 feet with an exquisite piece of skill. Secondly and probably more importantly for the Elland Road faithful, he has not lost his touch for putting a team together to challenge at the top end of the Championship.

A 3-0 win over Watford at the weekend stretched the Whites’ unbeaten run to six league games and lifted them up into the top six. Although built on a solid foundation of four successive clean sheets – they are the only team in England’s top four tiers yet to concede a goal in September. It is at the other end of the pitch I am focussing here.

Southampton are yet to keep a clean sheet this season and have shipped a league-high 19 goals. Both Norwich and Leicester hit four against them, with Sunderland going one better in a 5-0 drubbing at the beginning of the month to begin the losing sequence.

Having taken the lead against rock-bottom and winless Middlesbrough on Saturday, Martin saw his side concede an equaliser on the stroke of halftime. Another goal against as a result of hesitant defending whilst trying to build from the back.

This Leeds outfit will ruthlessly expose such uncertainties. A lethal double act of £35.5m club record buy Georginio Rutter, and Championship-proven marksman Joel Piroe have an exciting supporting cast behind them of Crysencio Summerville, Jaidon Anthony, Daniel James and Ian Poveda.

• Selection: Over 1.5 Leeds Goals
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: William Hill

Crawley vs Sutton: Crawley remain undervalued as they continue to creep up the table

England, League Two, Saturday, September 30th, 15:00 (UK)

I highlighted Crawley in this column two weeks ago as they prepared to take on Tranmere. Odds of 2.50 stood out against the strugglers, and sure enough, the home side obliged despite having to fight back from 1-0 and 2-1 behind to edge a five-goal thriller.

It was a near identical story when the Red Devils visited Grimsby at the weekend. Goals from Gavan Holohan and Abo Eisa looked to have put the home side in control after just half an hour, but within five minutes, the game was back level.

Another dramatic stoppage-time winner from former Mariner Danilo Orsi snatched the three points and propelled his new side up to fourth in the table. Although such comebacks are unsustainable, they certainly demonstrate the spirit and never-say-die attitude within a squad that many had written off as relegation certainties before a ball had been kicked.

I am happy to side with Scott Lindsey’s team again at only marginally shorter odds than when facing Rovers. With opponents here, Sutton is the only side below Tranmere in the table.

The U’s at least ended a run of seven successive league defeats at the weekend when drawing with the stuttering MK Dons. That was the first point Matt Gray’s side had won since their opening day 5-1 demolition of league leaders Notts County.

However, four defeats from their four League Two road trips, shipping 14 goals in the process, gives me the confidence to get this season’s early surprise package onside once again. Especially given only the league leaders have a better home record than Crawley, who have won four of five at Broadfield Stadium, including the last two.

• Selection: Crawley to Win
• Best Odds: 2.25
• Bookmaker: Coral

Swindon vs Grimsby: Expect unbeaten Robins to put a few in the Mariners net

England, League Two, Saturday, September 30th, 15:00 (UK)

Swindon have made an excellent start to the season and are one of only two sides yet to taste defeat in League Two. Michael Flynn’s side looked destined to add another win to their total on Saturday when leading Morecambe 2-1 and holding a man advantage. However, a late Ethan Walker goal meant they had to settle for a share of the spoils.

Town goes into this fixture in fifth place but with a game in hand, which, if they won, would take them up to 2nd. Much of that is owed to their prolific goalscoring form, which sees them as the highest scorers across the top four tiers of English football, having hit the back of the net 24 times so far.

They host a Grimsby side that has now lost their last two league games and shipped three times on both occasions. I have previously mentioned the 3-2 loss at home to Crawley on Saturday, which followed a 3-0 reverse at Wrexham.

The Mariners also conceded three times in their only other defeat of the season. Falling to a 3-2 defeat at Notts County, having twice taken the lead.

Swindon have won each of their last three home games, scoring 13 goals in the process. The Robins also won this fixture 5-0 last season, a result which meant a fourth successive victory in meetings between the two sides with an aggregate scoreline of 13-2.

With the likes of Charlie Austin and league top scorer, nine-goal Jake Young, in their ranks, expect the confident home side to have too much firepower for the visitors.

• Selection: Swindon to Win
• Best Odds: 1.91
• Bookmaker: William Hill

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.