Champions League Quarter Final Prediction: Early Bird

Anyone for a Champions League Quarter Final prediction or two? The Champions League is heating up, presenting four quarter final ties to whet the appetite of your average football fan.

Today, Sam Ingram dissects two matches in the ‘To Qualify’ market as Arsenal welcomes Real Madrid to town and Inter Milan travels to Munich.

Odds courtesy of bet365 and William Hill. Real Madrid to qualify is currently available at 1.70 on Betfair Exchange. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Are Bayern Munich Too Short To Qualify? 

Bar the two legs against Bayer Leverkusen, Kompany’s Bayern Munich hasn’t overly impressed me this season. But they’re leading the Bundesliga by a margin, and they’re in the Champions League quarter-final. We shouldn’t overlook their Round of 16 showings, either, as they turned up when the pressure was on.

Bayern made Xabi Alonso’s Leverkusen look and feel pretty average for the first time since Alonso made the switch to Germany. That’s a concern for the bet I’m proposing today. Full disclosure: I backed Bayer Leverkusen to qualify from the previous round at the exact same price I’m putting up here (2.37) on Inter Milan.

The international break hasn’t been kind for Bayern, either; Alphonso Davies suffered cruciate ligament damage in his knee with Canada, whilst Dayot Upamecano has also been ruled out for an extended period – potentially the rest of the campaign. 

Looking at Inter Milan, I can’t get away from how resolute the Italians have proved to be at the back in the Champions League this campaign. The defence will meet arguably its biggest test when travelling to Munich to dampen an attacking unit featuring Harry Kane, Leroy Sane, Jamal Musiala and Michael Olise, to name just four available to Kompany.

Scrapping Domestically

Inter have shipped just two goals during this Champions League edition. They’re disciplined to a man, they know their roles and typically carry them out to a standard that limits teams at this level in this competition. If they can limit Bayern to one goal in Munich, I’d back them to have enough to take the tie to Extra Time at a minimum back in Milan. The Thuram-Martinez duo is one I can foresee taking Inter to the final of this competition if they get the rub of the green along the way.

The main concern when taking a pro-Inter angle here is that they are currently in a scrap domestically for the Scudetto, sitting just three points ahead of a Napoli side with no European commitments. That’s not a position Bayern finds itself in, fortunately for them. The Bavarians will coast to yet another league title with minimal output in the Bundesliga‘s closing stages. 

Might Inter’s eye be taken off the ball ever so slightly? I’d lean towards ‘no’, but it might affect their output by the smallest margin. There’s two Coppa Italia semi-final legs sandwiching the Champions League double-header, alongside Serie A commitments, which is really not ideal preparation compared to Bayern’s scheduling. 

Still, at the prices, Inter Milan is the value selection for me. Simeone Inzaghi has the upper hand in terms of knowhow and experience in the respective dugouts and I’m sure he’ll have devised a gameplan sturdy enough to rebuff the majority of Bayern’s advances.

Champions League Quarter Final Prediction: Arteta vs Ancelotti

Arsenal are more generally organised and possess a more robust defensive structure compared to Real Madrid. The Gunners hold more of a threat from set pieces than their Spanish opponents.

Mikel Arteta might be able to grind out a result at the Emirates and put Arsenal in the driving seat. However, without a number nine – Mikel Merino doesn’t count, does he? – it’s really difficult to envisage Arsenal outscoring Real Madrid across both legs.

Bukayo Saka is back in training for Arsenal and will give his side a supreme shot of confidence. Nevertheless, this is a young man returning from his first serious injury. Saka hasn’t played a minute of football since 21/12/24 versus Crystal Palace. It’s not as easy as returning to the squad and churning out the type of world class performances we’re used to on the right wing. It should take him some time. He might not be able to keep pace for 90 minutes. 

If this was an Arsenal team with Havertz as the nine, a fully fit Bukayo Saka out wide, and an in-form Gabriel Jesus and Martinelli in contention, then yes, perhaps Arsenal would have enough in forward areas. Right now, I’m not sure if they do. Kylian Mbappe, Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr should, in theory, be presented with more opportunities than Arsenal’s front line. I expect that to count in the end.

Magnetic Romanticism

The rhetoric around Real Madrid and the magnetic romanticism of winning fixtures from any game state in this competition is peddled continuously. I’m guilty of it myself. It feels almost laborious, you’ll read it everywhere. But, it is true. The truth lies in the experience harvested by the club and its players. They’ve done this before. Real Madrid have won the European Cup on 15 occasions – more than any other club on the continent, regularly witnessing similar situations unfold and more often than not, progressing from whatever circumstances is thrown at them. It makes a Champions League quarter final prediction a little easier to make.

The same cannot be said for Arsenal. Until last season, Arsenal went six years without the Emirates witnessing the Champions League anthem. In the 17 consecutive seasons running out in this tournament before their recent barren run, Arsenal made it to the final on one occasion. It’s a club that has never triumphed in the Champions League. Arteta and Co reached this stage of the tournament last season, but Bayern Munich proved too strong. I fear similar lies ahead for Arsenal against a better, more consistent side in the Champions League knockout stages.

Stuttering

Many will share an overarching view that Arsenal would struggle to beat Real Madrid with a fully fit squad that was firing on all cylinders. They don’t have that right now.

The Gunners have won just three of their previous seven matches at the time of writing. If we take away the 0-7 whitewash versus below par opposition in PSV, they’ve scored just six goals in seven, blanking against Newcastle in the cup, and West Ham (at home) and Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Injuries and failing to recruit another striker in the summer/January will continue to hamper their chances on all fronts.

I’ll be taking Real Madrid on the exchanges at 1.70. That feels like a more than fair price. 

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