Dortmund vs PSG Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Welcome to our Dortmund vs PSG prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview. We have now reached the semi-final stage of the Champions League and newly crowned Ligue 1 champions PSG travel to Signal Iduna Park to take on Borussia Dortmund. Both sides will be eyeing a place at Wembley for the final. Football expert Steve Wyss delivers a full preview of the first leg with his best bets and selections. 

• Dortmund vs PSG Tip 1: PSG 0.0 Asian Handicap
• Dortmund vs PSG Tip 2: Over 3 Asian Goals
• Dortmund vs PSG Tip 3: Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime

Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 1: Parisians to show their class in Germany

UEFA Champions League, Wednesday 1st May, 20:00 (UK)

PSG are the newly crowned Ligue 1 champions, so they already have a significant trophy in the bag for this season. Of course, winning that competition was a minimum requirement for them this campaign. They could be on course for a treble, though, and the big one they want to obtain is the Champions League. There is no doubt that they have lucked out with the draw. Dortmund are no mugs but are arguably not even the third-best side in Germany these days. PSG would be extremely disappointed not to make the final from this position, and they are significant favourites.

Luis Enrique’s men won the away leg in both of the previous rounds vs Real Sociedad and Barcelona. They are well suited to playing on the road with their fast and dynamic attack. Dortmund are also going to be in a difficult mindset of whether to stick or twist in the opening 90 minutes. There will be many who believe they need to take a first-leg advantage to Paris next week. This could open up the game and help PSG. Taking the visitors on a 0,0 Asian Handicap looks like a safe enough play. I don’t really see PSG getting beaten at Signal Iduna Park. They have the extra quality and have proven this season that they can deal with the away leg well. 

• Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 1: PSG 0.0 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.84
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 2: Goals should flow in open game

This is going to be the third meeting between the two teams this season, so there won’t be any real surprises. I don’t doubt that both sides will give plenty of respect to each other, but there should be less of a fear factor. Dortmund had a strange run of 11 out of 12 under 2.5 goal games in the Champions League but that ended abruptly in the quarter-finals versus Atletico Madrid. Both legs were quite wide open, and I am expecting something similar here. PSG certainly won’t be travelling with any negative tactics, and you could argue that Dortmund needs to take this home leg by the scruff of the neck.

Taking the over 3 Asian Goal Line looks like a decent enough bet at Signal Iduna Park. There is full push security here in case of three goals being scored. There are enough offensive weapons on both sides for us to realistically expect goals. The pattern of play should be quite end to end. With no away goals now in UEFA competition, it should reduce the fear factor of Dortmund conceding. This line covered at least a push in all of the quarter-final matches involving these two teams, and I expect the goals to flow again. 

• Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 2: Over 3 Asian Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.78
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 3: Mbappé to deliver on the big stage

Kylian Mbappé has been inconsistent since mid-March, but that is perhaps due to the fact that he’s been rested in some league games and has managed his minutes. He is still the big class act in this PSG squad and loves to raise it for the big occasion. In these types of situations on the Champions League stage I feel like it’s always a good idea to back him to score, especially when we can get him at an odds-against price. 

An interesting statistic is that Mbappé has scored a brace of goals in both UCL away legs this season. Playing on the road can sometimes lead to him being given more space. Dortmund is unlikely to be as compact or deep in this game, which should provide more opportunities. Coupled with the fact that Mbappe will be on penalty kicks, then this just looks like an obvious bet. 

The odds of the French captain scoring at any time aren’t that much shorter than what he was priced in the return leg vs Barcelona. PSG are now facing weaker opponents, and this is not the time or place to start deserting him. 

• Dortmund vs PSG Prediction 3: Kylian Mbappé to Score Anytime (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.10
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Dortmund vs PSG Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:00, April 29th 2024. Odds may now differ.

Dortmund vs PSG Team News and Possible Lineups: Malen doubt for Dortmund

Dortmund defender Remy Bensebaini is ruled out with a knee injury and striker Sebastien Haller has an ankle problem. Donyell Malen is a major doubt with a thigh injury. PSG manager Luis Enrique was criticised for a strange team selection in the first leg of the previous round. But he should employ the dynamic front three of Dembele, Mbappe and Barcola here.

Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Kobel, Ryerson, Hummels, Schlotterbeck, Maatsen, Sabitzer, Can, Sancho, Brandt, Adeyemi, Fullkrug

PSG possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma, Hakimi, Marquinhos, Hernandez, Mendes, Vitinha, Zaire-Emery, Fabian Ruiz, Dembele, Barcola, Mbappe

Match Stats: Fourth time lucky in the Semis?

• Borussia Dortmund have only won one of their six meetings with PSG in all competitions (D3 L2), beating them 2-1 in the first leg of the 2019-20 UEFA Champions League round of 16, before being  eliminated 3-2 on aggregate. 
• Paris Saint-Germain have never won an away match against Borussia Dortmund, losing one and  drawing two of their three visits, including a 1-1 draw in the group stages of this season’s UEFA  Champions League. Indeed, this is the first time two teams have faced in the group stage and semi finals in a single campaign in the competition since Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund in 2012-13. 
• Borussia Dortmund are playing in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals for the fourth time; they’ve  reached the final on two of the three previous occasions (1996-97 and 2012-13), with their only  elimination at this stage coming in 1997-98 against Real Madrid. 
• This is Paris Saint-Germain’s fourth appearance in the UEFA Champions League semi-finals. They’ve lost all four games in their two previous two-legged ties (vs Milan in 1994-95 and Man City in 2020- 21), although they did beat RB Leipzig in a single match in 2019-20. 
• Borussia Dortmund are unbeaten in their last 10 UEFA Champions League home games (W6 D4), their  longest ever such run in the competition. Indeed, only three teams are on longer current unbeaten  home runs in the competition: Manchester City (31), FC Bayern München (15) and Real Madrid (12). 
• Paris Saint-Germain have averaged 65% possession in the UEFA Champions League this season; their  most in a single campaign on record (since 2003-04). Along with having more possession in all eight  UEFA Champions League games under Luis Enrique, the French side have also allowed the fewest  opposition passes per defensive action in the current tournament (8.7).
• Both teams have scored in every PSG away fixture in the UCL this season with 4 out of 5 matches landing Over 2.5 Goals.

Dortmund Fixtures: Champions League is all that matters

• Vs Augsburg (H)
• Vs PSG (A)
• Vs Mainz (A)
• Vs Darmstadt (H)

PSG Fixtures: Luis Enrique aiming for historic treble

• Vs Dortmund (H)
• Vs Toulouse (H)
• Vs Nice (A)
• Vs Metz (A)
• Vs Lyon (N) French Cup Final

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