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Horse Racing Copa Libertadores and Sudamericana Acca Tips: Altitude advantage across opening legs in Bolivia and Ecuador
The Copa Libertadores and Sudamericana are both at the quarter-final stage, and Nathan Joyes takes an early look at prices in an attempt to unearth some value.
With Bolivar set to shorten due to their home altitude advantage, find out who else the South American expert likes across both competitions in this midweek South American acca.
- Bolivar vs Internacional: Bolivar Win (TRACKED BET)
- Boca vs Racing: Boca Clean Sheet – No (TRACKED BET)
- LDU Quito vs Sao Paulo: LDU Quito -0.25 Asian Hanidcap
Acca odds: 7.15
Odds via bet365 as at 14:00 14th August 2023. Odds may now differ.
Bolivar vs Internacional: Bolivians to steal the show in La Paz
Bolivia, Copa Libertadores, Tuesday 22nd August, 23:00 (UK)
Bolivar continues to defy the odds and have now made it to the quarter-finals. Once again, the Bolivians have the opportunity to build up a healthy lead before heading back to Brazil.
Benat’s team hammered last year’s finalists Athletico 3-1 in the round of 16 first leg in La Paz. Having fallen behind in the opening minutes, Bolivar dominated proceedings, scoring three – and it should have easily been more.
As I pointed out last week, Brazilian clubs hate going to La Paz. The extreme altitude, around 3,500m above sea level, is less than the 50% oxygen Internacional will be used to. This is why Bolivian teams play with such high intensity and look to bury their opponents at home – we’ve seen it before, and this will be no different.
Due to Internacional’s domestic schedule, the club will have no time to head out to Bolivia early to help their players adapt to their new surroundings either – another tick for Bolivar.
With a mix of youth and experience, Bolivar do have creative players within their starting XI. Not only do they have Bolivian internationals, but Ronnie Fernandez has been a superb addition to their frontline.
The Chilean is every defender’s nightmare, and the strong talisman scored two headers against Athletico PR in the round of 16. There will be no rest bite for Internacional, who will try to return to Brazil with as little damage as possible.
Internacional knocked River Plate out of the competition in the last round on penalties, but it’s worth pointing out River lost 3-1 to The Strongest during the group stage.
It’s also worth mentioning Internacional travelled to La Paz back in 2021 – where they lost 2-0 to Always Ready. They’ll know what lies ahead of them, but stopping it is an improbable problem.
- Selection: Bolivar Win (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
More Bolivar vs Internacional Tips
Boca vs Racing: Fernando Gago can steer Racing into a promising position
Argentina, Copa Libertadores, Tuesday 24th August, 01:30 (UK)
A game which has created a fierce rivalry after two cup final meetings last year, there’s bound to be plenty of antics on and off the pitch. Although Boca have had an easy run to date, they’ll know a daunting task awaits against Fernando Gago’s impressive side.
Racing qualified out of Group A in first place, with the current champions, Flamengo, in behind. Having lost 4-2 in the first leg away to Athletico Nacional, the Argentine club fought back impressively to win 3-0 in front of their own supporters.
As a result, Racing now have ten different goalscorers in the competition. Gago doesn’t stray from his preferred 4-3-3 formation, and clearly, there’s a lot to be desired across all positions.
Defensively, they were a sham in Colombia – yet managed to add two goals once again away from home. They may be too attacking over two legs, but they have yet to draw a blank in the competition.
Despite losing Matias Rojas, it almost allowed Racing to be more diverse in front of goal instead of relying on their creative Paraguayan when going forward.
Boca gave up two easy goals against Nacional in the round of 16 and made life difficult for themselves unnecessarily. It’s safe to say if Boca had a trickier tie or ended up on the right-hand side of the draw, they wouldn’t still be in the competition.
With former Man United goalkeeper Sergio Romero not impressing from crosses, Racing will have plenty of chances to carry on their Libertadores scoring run. The price of 1.75 is very generous for them to find the back of the net – something they have managed in their last three head-to-heads.
- Selection: Boca Clean Sheet – No (Tracked Bet)
- Best Odds: 1.75
- Bookmaker: bet365
LDU Quito vs São Paulo: Altitude to benefit Ecuadoreans against last year’s finalists
Ecuador, Copa Sudamericana, Thursday 24th August, (23:00) (UK)
We switched to the Sudamericana for the final leg of the South American acca – which has a similar angle to where we started.
Quito is around 2,500m above sea level, and those who travel there do not often succeed. As I’ve already alluded to, Brazilians suffer in high altitudes, which is why this game caught my eye.
However, LDU Quito have been strong throughout their campaign, and they know capitalising on home advantage is a must before travelling to Sao Paulo for the second leg.
In the group stage, LDU Quito came out on top, which also featured Serie A runaway leader Botafogo. Although they drew 0-0 with them at home, they won their other matches 3-0 and 4-0. Without conceding, their pulsating play was lethal – brushing aside those who challenged them.
The round of 16 was slightly different, and it was the first time Quito showed vulnerabilities. A 3-3 draw with Nublense saw the Ecuadoreans rely on penalties in order to squeeze through. However, let’s not forget Nublense had dropped out of the Libertadores. The Chilean club also held Flamengo to a 1-1 draw a month prior.
However, the altitude angle is too good to dismiss, especially with Quito’s odds-against price. Brazilian teams have little to no altitude in their own nation, and this is a tough task in a game in which they don’t need to win.
Sao Paulo set up defensively away to San Lorenzo and suffered a narrow loss. They only conjured up two shots on target and were far from threatening in Argentina – and I’m expecting the same in Quito.
There’s no doubt Sao Paulo is the better side, but expect Quito to swarm their opponents and make life extremely tough for them – and nicking a goal will be enough to land a juicy-looking price.
- Selection: LDU Quito -0.25 Asian Handicap
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
More LDU Quito vs São Paulo Tips
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