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Copa Libertadores Betting Odds Introduction
The Copa Libertadores group stage ended at the beginning of July. It was a twelve-week action-packed period, to say the least. Brazilians continued to dominate, Argentine clubs followed behind, and, of course, a few surprises scraped through to the knockouts.
The round of 16 draws couldn’t be more informative when working out who will win the 2023 Libertadores title. The good news is that the market barely shifted, if at all, creating plenty of value. I’m not sure why this is the case, but I have no complaints.
The right-hand side of the draw is fascinating yet brutal from a betting perspective. Only one of Flamengo, Fluminense, River Plate, Internacional, Atletico PR or Argentinos Jrs will make it to the final in Rio de Janeiro. It is anyone’s guess as to who that might be – which is why I’ll focus on the other side of the draw for my outright selections.
In this article:
- Copa Libertadores Winners Odds: Luck of the draw boosts 2021 champions’ chances
- Copa Libertadores Top Scorer Odds: Brazilian capable of clinching the golden boot
- Copa Libertadores Longshot Value Odds: Exciting Ecuadorians too big to ignore
Copa Libertadores Winners Odds: Luck of the draw boosts 2021 champions’ chances
Once again, Serie A‘s Palmeiras have drawn Atlético Mineiro in the knockout stage, having edged past them in the last two tournaments. However, on paper, the current Brazilian champions are superior in every department – and this looks to be their most challenging match en route to a potential final spot.
Mineiro will heavily rely on their front pair of Hulk and Paulinho, who have formed a good relationship this season. However, away from their strikers, Palmeiras’ defence has proven more reliable, and their fluid midfield should give them the edge.
If Palmeiras are to defeat Atlético Mineiro, the Brazilians will be rubbing their hands together when you look at who’s on their side of the draw. Atletico Nacional, Nacional and Pereira look as though their time is limited in the competition, and while Racing carries a threat, they’ve recently lost their star player, Matias Rojas. The Paraguayan has moved to Corinthians, and without him, Racing have lost their set-piece specialist and most influential player in the final third.
Abel Fereira has turned Palmeiras into a winning machine in recent years. He doesn’t stray from his favoured 4-2-3-1 formation, something his team have bought into and perfected. Although they lost Gustavo Scarpa to Nottingham Forest, his replacements continue to perform remarkably well. Sadly, the loss of Danilo has been harder to deal with.
Nevertheless, Artur, who arrived from domestic rivals Bragantino, has already scored five goals in the Libertadores. Defensive midfielder Gabriel Menino has stepped up to take over from Danilo and has an increasing list of European admirers.
With Raphael Veiga pulling the strings further up the pitch and fellow Brazilian international teammate Rony leading the line, there’s the perfect blend of experience and ability within their ranks. Reaching a third final in four years can be backed at 2.80, and I wouldn’t put anyone off it.
A potentially difficult trip to Quito likely awaits in the quarter-finals against Sudamericana champions Independiente del Valle. A hot climate will be tough to endure in Ecuador, but the beauty of two-legged ties will allow Palmeiras to rectify any mistakes in the Allianz Parque. No one will enjoy a trip there, as Fereira’s side have suffered just one home defeat in 15 home Libertadores matches.
A then potential semi-final against Atletico Nacional, Boca, Racing or Nacional is Palmerias’ reward for going toe-to-toe with Mineiro in the round of 16. There’s no doubt Palmeiras will be odds-on to qualify against any of those teams.
Currently standing as a 5.0 shot in the Copa Libertadores Winners odds offering on bet365, Fereira’s side looks very well priced. The 2020 and 2021 winners are my selection to lift the Libertadores once again.
- Selection: Palmeiras (TRACKED BET)
- Odds: 5.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Copa Libertadores winners odds via bet365 as of 22:00, 17th, July, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Copa Libertadores Top Scorer Odds: Brazilian capable of clinching the golden boot
It makes sense to stick with a Palmeiras player to win The Copa Libertadores Top Scorer at an intriguing odds offering. I believe they can go all the way, and therefore mounting strikes in their favour shines a light on the following selection.
As I’ve pointed out, Artur was prolific during the group stage. Two braces helped him produce five goals, and he sits only two behind Paulinho, who’s currently on seven. It’s worth pointing out the Atlético Mineiro striker scored three during the qualifiers, which is why he is currently atop the leaderboard. However, with potentially only two more games left out of a possible seven, he’s too short to take on at around 2.75.
Fluminense’s German Cano is next in line around 3.0 after scoring six, including a hattrick against River Plate. However, a tough draw against Gabriel Milito’s Argentinos Jrs awaits in the round of 16, who proved to be well-drilled defensively, and a potential tight affair awaits.
If Fluminense does progress, a mouthwatering clash against fierce rivals Flamengo likely awaits. Yet since Jorge Sampaoli’s appointment, Fluminense have failed to score past the current Libertadores champions in their last three outings, which could be a stumbling block for Cano.
That leads me back around to Palmeiras’ Artur. Priced at 5.0, the Brazilians will be licking their lips at their potential route to the final, and their new star will be at the heart of that. Artur has proven to be deadly during the group stage, whether it be his left foot, right or head.
Palmeiras were the highest scorers (16), and chances will certainly fall their way. Their attacking right winger will be desperate to carry on his fine form in front of goal in search of Libertadores delights.
If you’re looking for a value pick, River Plate’s Lucas Beltran, at 11.0 (bet365), is one of the deadliest strikers in South America, having scored four goals from six matches – he’s responsible from the penalty spot, too. With River Plate wrapping up the Argentine Primera, their entire focus will be on the Libertadores campaign.
- Selection: Artur (Palmeiras)
- Odds: 5.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 6/10
Copa Libertadores top scorer odds via bet365 as of 22:00, 17th, July, 2023. Odds may now differ.
Copa Libertadores Longshot Value Odds: Exciting Ecuadorians too big to ignore
Although I’ve already alluded to the fact Palmeiras are the strongest team on their side of the draw, I can’t resist tipping up the Ecuadorians.
Priced at 21.0, Independiente del Valle have drawn Colombian outfit Pereira. Pereira lost to Venezuela’s Monagas in the Group Stage and just about crept into the knockouts with two wins to their name.
Having won the Copa Sudamericana last year, Independiente del Valle beat Flamengo over two legs to win the Recopa Sudamericana – proving they could more than hold their own versus the best South America offers.
As I’ve stated, Quito has its own advantage with its sweltering hot conditions. Combining this with Martin Anselmi’s direct, aggressive approach, it’s no surprise that the Ecuadorians topped a group that included both Argentinos Jrs and Corinthians.
Anselmi has built arguably one of the most exciting teams in South America. All the attention is firmly on Kendry Paez with his move to Chelsea confirmed, but there’s far more to their roster than the new kid on the block.
Captain Junior Sornoza was at the heart of everything IDV produced in the group stage, providing two goals and two assists. Richard Schunke was a standout performer at the back, while Moises Ramirez continues to show why he’s one of the best goalkeepers in South America.
That combination of attacking threat with a well-drilled defence will take you far in the Libertadores, and their price should be closer to [13.0].
You could say I’ve taken the easy option with potentially Palmeiras and Independiente del Valle meeting in the quarter-finals.
However, to compare, Atletico Paranaense are the same price on the other side of the draw and face a horrible fixture against Bolivar in La Paz. Then, River Plate, Fluminense, Internacional, Argentinos Jrs and Flamengo all potentially await in the following rounds.
Yes, Independiente del Valle are likely to face Palmeiras, but if they can use their home advantage to scrape through, you’d have to fancy them to kick on and reach the final.
- Selection: Independiente del Valle
- Odds: 21.00
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Copa Libertadores Longshot Value Odds via bet365 as at 22:00, 17th, July, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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