Copa Libertadores Acca Tips: La Paz the dreaded destination for Athletico PR

It’s finally here. The long wait between the Copa Libertadores group stage and the knockouts is over, and there are some cracking games across the continent. Argentinos Jrs’ eye-catching home form against a Fluminense side struggling on the road appeals, while the current holders are likely to enjoy themselves at the Maracana.

Elsewhere, a trip to La Paz for Athletico PR will most likely be a game the Serie A won’t be looking forward to. Home advantage may be key across three Libertadores matches as round of 16 takes place. Let’s get stuck into a good-looking 5.15 acca.

And whilst you’re here, why not check out my Copa Libertadores ante-post betting preview.

• Bolivar vs Athletico PR: Bolivar to win
• Argentinos Jrs vs Fluminense: Argentinos Jrs Draw No Bet
• Flamengo vs Olimpia: Flamengo and over 2.5 goals

Acca odds: 5.15

Odds via bet365 as at 13:00, 29th July 2023. Odds may now differ.

Bolivar vs Athletico PR: La Paz an unfavoured destination for Brazilians

Bolivia, Copa Libertadores, Wednesday 2nd August, 01:00 (UK)

Bolivar have done remarkably well to reach the knockout stage, and they will know how critical the first leg will be if they are to progress. Playing at 3,500 metres above sea level, the Bolivian club thrives in their familiar climate, where unsurprisingly, opponents do not. With less than 50% oxygen compared to Brazil, it’s no wonder Serie A clubs severely struggle in the testing conditions and do not enjoy their trips to the Bolivian capital.

Bolivar proved just that when they beat Palmeiras 3-1 in their first group match, but history tells us this isn’t a one-off. Santos, São Paulo and Flamengo have all fallen to the hands of Bolivar in this tournament over the years.

Domestic rivals Always Ready beat Corinthians 2-0 back in 2022, and The Strongest secured a 1-0 victory over Fluminense in Group D earlier this year.

Need convincing further? Athletico PR suffered a 5-0 defeat in last year’s group stage to The Strongest in La Paz. Brazilians simply do not enjoy playing in the Andes Mountains.

On the pitch, Bolivar’s mix of youth and experience saw them win all three group matches at home. Playing with a high press and intensity, Bolivar doesn’t let their opponents breathe, and there’s no doubt the Brazilians will be hoping the damage isn’t too severe come 90 minutes.

Athletico PR will also need to keep tabs on forward Ronnie Fernandez, who has proven to be a real handful and Bolivar’s match-winner.

Priced at 1.80 at the time of writing, this may be even shorter come kick-off.

Argentinos Jrs vs Fluminense: Argentinians to have the upper hand at home

Argentina, Copa Libertadores, Tuesday 1st August, 23:00 (UK)

Arguably one of the best ties of the round, Fernando Diniz’s Fluminense travel to Argentina with a worrying away record. Flu have won just one of their last ten matches in all competitions; it’s important to point out they’ve lost eight of those.

At home, Diniz’s adventurous football has been a joy to watch at the Maracana, but Diniz has struggled to adapt his playing style on the road. To make matters worse, his side has been drawn against Gabriel Milito’s well-drilled Argentinos Jrs.

Having collected seven points from nine in the group stage, Argentinos Jrs only conceded one goal across the 270 minutes. Another advantage for the Argentines is their small stadium, where the fans are almost on the pitch themselves. The 12,000-capacity stadium is a world away from the Maracana, but it’s an intimidating venue for those not used to this kind of environment.

Unfortunately, Argentinos Jrs have lost right-back Kevin Mac Allister since the group stage, who was one of the standout defenders. However, the organisation the defence has shown since has been reassuring, with the whole squad buying into Milito’s philosophy. With the domestic season now over, the former centre-back now manager rested key players at the weekend. The full focus is on their two matches against Fluminense.

Milito will look to keep it tight, especially at the back, but will know a lead is arguably required before heading to Brazil for the second leg. With Gabriel Avalos leading the line and with Redondo Solari standing firm in the middle, Fluminense will need to drastically improve their away form in order to win.

I’m taking the safety blanket of the draw no bet option, but I’m expecting Argentinos Jrs to really take the game to the Brazilians, who have been vulnerable on the road.

Flamengo vs Olimpia: Reigning champions to run riot at the Maracana

Brazil, Copa Libertadores, Friday 4th August, (01:00) (UK)

Olimpia is one of just two teams to remain unbeaten in the competition, but I expect that to change at the Maracana on Friday.

Having faced Peruvian outfit, Melgar, Argentine Nacional side Patronato and Colombia’s Atletico Nacional, it’s safe to say all sides are considerably weaker than Flamengo.
Flamengo have drastically improved under head coach Jorge Sampaoli, who’s been able to get the best out of his team of superstars. Ten matches unbeaten in all competitions t
ell its own story.
However, after an incident at the weekend between forward Pedro and coach Pablo Fernandez, where Fernandez physically attacked the forward, Sampaoli’s position has been brought into dispute.

Whoever takes charge, there’s a bigger prize at stake. With Gabriel Barbosa, de Arrascaeta and Bruno Henrique all attacking options at Flamengo’’s disposal, Olimpia are likely to be out of their depth if the champions are in the mood.

The Brazilians also have a real incentive to wrap up the first leg, too. With Sampaoli’s side hunting down Botafogo in Serie A, a convincing win at home would allow him to potentially rest players in the reverse leg and concentrate on domestic action.

However, although Olimpia is inferior to the Brazilians, they did manage to score 13 goals in the group stage. Guillermo Miguel Paiva proved to be a real handful in front of his own supporters – and a goal for the visitors isn’t out of the question.

Yet domestic defeats to Tacuary, Resistencia and Nacional Asuncion do not indicate Olimpia are ready for the challenge which awaits. Across a much wider pitch at the Maracana, Flamengo will look to pull Olimpia apart and send a statement to the other teams.

It’s also worth noting that both these sides met in the 2021 knockout stage, where Flamengo were victorious 9-2 on aggregate.

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