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Boxing Chelsea vs Man City Tips: OPTA Stats, Team News, Predictions And Best Bets
Our expert, Tom Winch, has three solid-looking Chelsea v Man City predictions and tips ahead of the Sunday afternoon kick-off in the Premier League. As always, there are plenty of key OPTA stats and facts to reinforce selections.
Chelsea vs Man City Tips
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 1: Man City Win & BTTS
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 2: Erling Haaland AGS
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 3: Moises Caicedo To Receive A Card
In this article:
- Chelsea vs Man City Team News
- BETSiE’s Projected Premier League Finish for Chelsea and Man City
- How to watch or stream Chelsea vs Man City on TV
- Safer Gambling
Odds via SBK as at 12:00 Tuesday 7th November. Odds may now differ.
Chelsea vs Man City Tip 1: Too Much for Chelsea to handle
England, Premier League, November 12th, 16:30 (UK)
The Premier League is starting to take shape. Pep Guardiola’s side lead the way after eleven games. Man City have scored the most (28) and conceded less than anyone else (8) and are strong favourites (1.75) as they head to Stamford Bridge.
Mauricio Pochettino and Chelsea have endured an interesting start to the season. Statistically, they’re underperforming, especially in attacking areas. Only Liverpool and Newcastle have a greater xG number than the London club. Chelsea have scored 17 times this season and are ranked mid-table in that aspect.
Defensively, they’ve been impressive with just 12 goals conceded, only bettered by four clubs. It’s clear that offensively is where the issues lie. Only Brentford have missed more big chances than Chelsea. Nicolas Jackson (5), Raheem Sterling (3), Cole Palmer (3), and Mykhaylo Mudryk (2) are the only players to have scored multiple goals this term – the attack doesn’t quite have that cutting edge in comparison to the sides at the top.
Manchester City are around 1.70 to win this match after opening at 2.00 a couple of weeks ago. I believe the current price is probably about fair at this current moment. City have a 4-0-2 WDL record on the road this season and have kept just two clean sheets in nine away days in all competitions.
BTTS is trending around 1.77, a price that I’m happy to combine with an away victory, which gives us a 3.40 selection with bet365. Chelsea should arrive here with added confidence, given they put four past Tottenham on Monday night. Yes, it was a crazy game with multiple game-changing decisions, but it was a big victory for Poch’s side.
The visitors should have too much for Chelsea. They played Man United off the park in their previous away day and blitzed Bournemouth on Saturday but did concede in that clash. The price is an appealing one on Super Sunday.
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 1: Man city Win & BTTS (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 3.35
- Bookmaker: SBK
- Stake: 8/10
Chelsea vs Man City Tip 2: “Back at it!” for Erling
Erling Haaland was taken off at halftime in Man City’s stuffing of Bournemouth, leaving FPL players infuriated. The Norwegian has recently tweeted out pictures on social media of him in training with the caption “Back at it!” If he’s fit and available, there’s always a high chance he scores.
Haaland is the Premier League’s current leading scorer. He has bagged 11 goals in as many appearances and is averaging a goal every 85 minutes. He’s 1.83 to score on Sunday afternoon, which is not a massive price by any means, but it’s worth a play, given just how consistent the man is.
Scott Thornton has tipped Manchester City to record Over 13.5 Shots at 1.83 in his weekly Premier League Props article on bettingexpert (a personal fave). If that’s to happen, which looks a great shout, then you’d back the Norweigan to be right amongst those 14+ goalscoring opportunities.
If you thought Haaland’s goal averages were impressive this campaign, they were even better in 2022/23. He scored 36 Premier League goals last term, one every 77 minutes. It’s just remarkable. It may come as a surprise that Haaland failed to score against Chelsea last season. He played 106 minutes across the two meetings and racked up 0.99xG. Let’s hope that changes.
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 2: Erling Haaland Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.89
- Bookmaker: SBK
- Stake: 5/10
Chelsea vs Man City Tip 3: Poor discipline and not afraid to get stuck in
When it comes to discipline, Chelsea are right up there and are usual suspects when it comes to yellow cards. No side has picked up more cautions than Pochettino’s side (35) this season. The midfield battle will be key in this clash. City will have plenty of the ball as they look to dictate proceedings.
The likes of Moises Caicedo, Conor Gallagher and Enzo Fernandez will have an important role to play. I’m going for the former to pick up another caution on Sunday afternoon. He’s received three in his opening ten appearances. Originally, my mind was set on Enzo Fernandez at a much bigger price, but it looks as if he’s an injury doubt.
If that changes and Fernandez starts, he’s your man at around 4.33.
Caicedo isn’t afraid to get stuck in. He’s also a player who can get in your face. With this being a huge clash, more so for the home side, I’m hoping emotions can get to Chelsea’s number 25, which will lead him into the referee’s book.
- Chelsea vs Man City Tip 3: Moises Caicedo to be Receive a Card
- Best Odds: 2.38
- Bookmaker: SBK
- Stake: 2/10
CHELSEA VS MAN CITY TEAM NEWS: CHELSEA MISSING MANY WITH LIMITED ISSUES FOR LEAGUE LEADERS
Chelsea’s have a big squad, complimented by their lengthy injury list. Armando Broja is a doubt for this meeting whilst the likes of Nkunku, Lavia, Chilwell, Chukwuemeka, and Fofana are still sidelined with injuries. It’s expected that a very similar XI that won against Spurs will start at Stamford Bridge.
Erling Haaland was the only real concern for City, but he looks like he’ll play a part here and will possibly start after his performance midweek against Young Boys. There’s no chance that De Bruyne is back – he’ll be absent until late December at the earliest.
BETSiE’s Projected Premier League Finish for Chelsea and Man City
| Position | Club | Games | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 38 | 27.0 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 85.7 | 29.6 | 56.1 | 86.0 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 38 | 23.4 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 76.1 | 33.8 | 42.3 | 78.9 |
| 3 | Liverpool | 38 | 23.1 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 81.5 | 39.6 | 41.9 | 77.6 |
| 4 | Newcastle | 38 | 22.5 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 84.1 | 38.5 | 45.7 | 74.9 |
| 5 | Tottenham | 38 | 19.9 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 68.6 | 52.2 | 16.3 | 67.4 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 38 | 19.2 | 6.9 | 11.9 | 72.1 | 53.7 | 18.4 | 64.5 |
| 7 | Chelsea | 38 | 18.3 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 67.9 | 44.4 | 23.5 | 63.4 |
| 8 | Brighton | 38 | 17.2 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 69.8 | 57.9 | 12.0 | 60.5 |
| 9 | Manchester Utd | 38 | 17.3 | 5.9 | 14.8 | 56.0 | 56.4 | -0.3 | 57.7 |
| 10 | Brentford | 38 | 14.7 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 61.1 | 55.2 | 5.9 | 54.1 |
Some would argue, like Sam Ingram in the Expert’s Acca this week, that the two teams are worlds away on the pitch. Well, looking a little further ahead, BETSiE, our in-house predictive model, has them a fair bit apart by the time May rolls around, too. And that’s no disgrace. This is a City team years ahead in terms of development both on and off the pitch, under a manager who has been given the luxury of time and endless funds (like Chelsea!) for a much longer time period.
If you like these kind of data-orientated projections, take a look at BETSiE’s Premier League page. It gets updated every week with fresh content, facts, and figures, and may prove a helping hand for any of your bets placed during a Premier League schedule.
How does BETSiE view Chelsea vs Man City on Sunday? It’s an interesting question, and BETSiE has an interesting take. Going off the highest probability of correct scores as seen in our weekly Super 6 Tips article, BETSiE has this down as honours even at 1-1, leaning to the possibility of a low-scoring City triumph.
| Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | Chelsea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| Man City | 0 | 7.3% | 8.2% | 4.6% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 1 | 10.9% | 12.2% | 6.9% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 2 | 8.1% | 9.2% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 3 | 4.1% | 4.6% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 4 | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 5 | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Man City | 6 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
How to watch or stream Chelsea vs Man City on TV
- Date and Time: Sunday, November 12th, 16:30 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream Leicester vs Leeds: Sky Sports Main Event and Sky Sports Premier League
NOVEMBER 13-19 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2023
November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.
