Championship Relegation Odds: Enter Eustace and Muslic

Plymouth Argyle’s win over Liverpool in the FA Cup Fourth Round and their consequent trip to the Etihad Stadium in March was all the proof you needed that the Championship‘s bottom club had what it took to claw themselves away from the foot of the Championship Relegation Odds. A 5-1 victory over Millwall just days after their FA Cup scalp lifted the Green Army away from 24th position for the first time in 54 days.

The bookmakers have the Green Army priced at 1.18 to be relegated from the Championship. That is an implied probability of 84.7% chance of falling into the third tier of England’s footballing pyramid. Elsewhere, amidst the Championship manager merry-go-round, John Eustace has jumped ship at Rovers and taken the reins at Derby County. The Rams are 2.25 third-favourites for the drop alongside Portsmouth (2.25) and ahead of Luton Town (2.20). Should Eustace’s arrival take them away from being the third-most likely to be relegated? Maybe.

Current Table and Odds: Who To Avoid?

Firstly, there’s no doubt in my mind that the Plymouth Argyle to be relegated price is incorrect. The Green Army are currently experiencing a resurgence under new manager, Miron Muslic, who has breathed new life, energy and desire into a group of players who previously looked devoid of any of the above. Not only that, but the Betfair Exchange relegation price of around 1.61 often paints a more accurate, fairer reflection of how the market views the Championship relegation battle.

Straight away, that sets off alarm bells. If the Plymouth Argyle odds are that incorrect, then there must be a betting angle elsewhere. I believe the Home Park faithful will see their club survive for the second season on the bounce. If that does transpire, there’s a current price or two worth taking in the betting at bet365.

We’ve mentioned him already – John Eustace – might have just flipped Derby’s fortunes and given them the best chance of remaining in the division. Esutace doesn’t guarantee safety, but he does offer a nous and experience at the level that Paul Warne didn’t have. Personally, it makes Derby wholly attractive in the relegation market. The former Rams player had Blackburn Rovers in the playoff and performing impeccably at times this season. There will be questions of why he has jumped ship. Regardless, what is Rovers’ loss is certainly Pride Park’s gain.

Back down south, but not so south western that we reach Plymouth, but another dockyard city, Portsmouth’s performances suggest they’re starting to find their feet. It’s no coincidence that Colby Bishop’s return and Josh Murphy finding form has arrived at the same time Portsmouth are going to Brammall Lane and leaving with a feeling of unfortunate linked to returning home empty-handed. That Blades showing was followed by a 2-1 win over fellow strugglers, Cardiff, where 19 shots and 1.54xG rained down on Omar Riza’s Bluebirds. If this is a level that can be maintained, Portsmouth will edge to safety. Similarly to Derby, it makes a Portsmouth relegation selection one that wouldn’t sit right. Form can change in the wind in the Championship, and their current course might hit a snag, but right now, it’s a relegation option to swerve.

Back-to-back Relegations? Matt’s Misfiring Hatters

What about Luton Town? The same Luton Town that was rubbing shoulders with the elite of the Premier League only a month ago.

Luton Town are bottom of the league. They’ve lost the most fixtures (18) in the Championship this season – more than Argyle, Derby and Portsmouth. Like Derby and Plymouth Argyle, Luton have made a change in the dugout. The Rob Edwards era has dissipated, with League One Wycombe begrudgingly handing over Matt Bloomfield to take position in the Hatters dugout.

Although there’s a train of thought that the powers-that-be rid Edwards of his duties too late, we’re now five games in under Bloomfield and there hasn’t been a win just yet. It’s Sheffield United at home next. Three losses and two draws wasn’t the dream start that the new gaffer pictured in his head when signing on the dotted line.

Why aren’t Luton Town a shorter price in the relegation markets? Is it because they’re a recently relegated Premier League club? Is it because they have the financial muscle and squad to coast away from the likes of Plymouth Argyle? Is their current form really being factored into the prices above everything else?

The main concern for me is that Luton Town have already rolled the dice. Bloomfield will likely get to the end of the season. If their competitors continue to improve under fresh eyes and new guidance and Luton falter under a young coach inexperienced at this level, are we set to watch Luton Town trudge towards League One?

At the current prices, Luton Town to be relegated at 2.20 is where I’d end up.

• Selection: Luton to be Relegated (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.20
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

17th – 24th BETSiE Projections: Plymouth Argyle Still Rooted To Bottom Spot

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