Football | Friday, July 28, 2023 12:41 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, December 27, 2023 9:15 AM)

Championship Ante-Post Odds: Winner, Promotion and Relegation

IMAGO / PA Images AESSEAL New York Stadium Middlesbrough Head Coach, Michael Carrick, looks on during the Sky Bet Championship match at AESSEAL New York Stadium

Jack Wright

European Football Expert

We tasked our man Jack Wright to get the Championship in his sights in July and formulate an ante-post selection of outright odds and best bets to attack the second tier season with. From relegation-threatened to Premier League hopefuls, the below is what he came up with.

At the halfway point of the season, it’s not looking too bad.

For a weekly fix of Championship, League 1 and 2 predictions and tips, see our dedicated EFL page updated ahead of each weekend, featuring the likes of Sam Ingram, Tom Winch, and Scott Thornton.

Championship Ante-Post Odds

Championship Ante-Post Odds, An Introduction

In July last year, we were wondering how Vincent Kompany would adapt to life as a manager in England. It didn’t take us long to find out!

His Burnley side stamped their authority on the division from the opening kick-off, romping to a title that never looked in doubt, amassing a huge 101 points. Burnley finished 21 points clear of the play-off places and ended as the Championship’s top scorers with 87 goals.

The Clarets were the only one of the three relegated sides to bounce straight back to the Premier League. Watford and Norwich finished 11th and 13th, respectively, after disappointing campaigns.

Sheffield United joined Burnley in automatic promotion ending a two-year absence from the top flight. Luton Town demonstrated that anything is possible after going up via the play-offs.

Points deductions proved costly for relegated Wigan and Reading, particularly the latter, who would have otherwise survived. Blackpool joined them in the bottom three failing to find the right manager until too late. If you’re partial to lower league football, have a look at my top five outright picks for the season ahead, focusing specifically on League One and League Two.

Now, it is time to go again. Will the three relegated sides make an immediate return to the top tier? Will any of the newly promoted sides ruffle feathers at the top end of the table as play-off semi-finalists Sunderland did last term? With at least one of those new faces expected to survive, who of the establishment will fall through the trapdoor to League One?

I will look to answer all of those questions and a few more with my Championship betting preview for 2024.

Championship Ante-Post Winner Odds: No need for a parachute with Carrick in the hot seat

Relegated Leicester have been installed as title favourites ahead of the new campaign. The two sides who dropped from the Premier League with them last term, Leeds and Southampton, take the next two spots in the betting.

The parachute payments and fees generated by selling Premier League-level assets set them apart from the rest of the division. But as we saw last season, those Premier League payments don’t guarantee success.

All three market leaders will have new managers at the helm following on from those who were unable to save them. The Foxes chose not to keep interim manager Dean Smith, instead opting to appoint Enzo Maresca from the backroom team at Manchester City.

Expect a similar style to that of Pep Guardiola from the Italian, who has an incredible CV, having worked with some of the biggest winners in the game. However, his only managerial experience was 14 games in charge of Serie B side Parma in 2021. It was a spell which saw him sacked after winning just four of his opening 14 games.

A plump kitty and the exit door

Around £100m worth of talent has left the club for nothing upon expiry of their contracts. However, James Maddison’s departure to Spurs and Harvey Barnes’ move to Newcastle has added a reported £78m to the kitty and does mean there is money to be spent. It’s a process that has started with the acquisition of Conor Coady and Harry Winks in the hope both will reignite their stalled careers at the King Power.

I see Leicester as too much of an unknown quantity that isn’t worth taking on from a betting perspective. The same applies to Leeds under two-time Championship winner Daniel Farke. The German led Norwich to 13th in his first inconsistent season in charge before landing back-to-back titles at this level with the Canaries.

Russell Martin will attempt to get his Southampton side passing the Championship to death, having taken over from Ruben Selles. Nevertheless, like Farke, Martin is a manager who usually takes a while to implement his methods in a new club. As was the case in his previous jobs at MK Dons and Swansea.

Although with some of Saints’ top talent on the shopping list of Europe’s elite, it remains to be seen who the 37-year-old will have at his disposal come the closing of the window. Again, enough doubt here to look elsewhere for the identity of my Championship winners.

In fact, I couldn’t be looking further away.

From the South Coast to Teesside

Michael Carrick completely transformed Middlesbrough last season after taking over from Chris Wilder. Boro were in trouble. Sitting 21st in the table concerned more with pulling themselves clear of the relegation zone rather than the possibility of closing the yawning chasm to the promotion contenders.

What happened next was nothing short of extraordinary. A defeat in the first fixture of the new regime was followed by a run of 16 wins from the next 21 games, at one stage closing the gap to Sheffield United in 2nd to just three points.

Ultimately, Boro had to settle for a place in the play-offs and never recovered from heavily rotating their side in the final “dead rubbers” of the regular season. They were unable to put their foot back on the gas, losing to Coventry over two legs.

A haul of 58 points in Carrick’s 30 games in charge was bettered only by promoted duo Sheffield United (65) and Burnley (72), although no side came close to the total of 65 goals scored. A key contributor to that was Championship top goalscorer and Player of the Season, Chuba Akpom, who fired in 28 goals across the campaign.

I would have been concerned if rumours of his departure from the club were true. Regardless, those have since been put to rest. I also believe the loss of four key loan players can be overcome.

There is no disputing Zach Steffen, Ryan Giles, Aaron Ramsey, and Cam Archer will be missed. Nonetheless, as the transfer window nears closing, a whole host of Premier League youngsters will be allowed to leave their parent clubs for Championship destinations.

Michael Carrick has shown himself to be a perfect developer of talent and has drawn a multitude of plaudits for the style in which his team plays. As such, he has put Boro at the front of the line when the elite sides in the English top flight are looking to loan out their top prospects.

For me, Middlesbrough represents a fantastic each-way shot at 11.00.

Selection: Middlesbrough (Each Way)
Odds: 11.00
Bookmaker: Betfair

Championship Winner Odds via Betfair as at 13:16, July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Championship Top Six Odds: Lions to finally tame the task of a top 6 finish

The play-offs are, arguably, the best way to gain promotion. The ultimate goal was achieved with a joyous day out at Wembley thrown in for good measure. Having looked at who will be challenging for the title, next up is who will be filling those play-off places.

I will start off by suggesting to the risk-averse amongst you that if you don’t want to take parachute-less Middlesbrough as winners, they can be backed for a consecutive Top Six finish at a very palatable 2.25.

Boro’s fellow play-off semi-final losers Sunderland who finished 6th last term, are 4.33 to repeat or better that achievement this time around. It’s an attractive price for a side that had to overcome a series of setbacks in the previous campaign.

From losing promotion-winning manager Alex Neil to divisional rivals Stoke to the loss of prolific top scorer Ross Stewart to a season-ending injury. Loan replacement Ellis Simms was recalled by Everton, all while Tony Mowbray just got on with it and consistently delivered good results.

If the Black Cats keep Stewart fit and resist Burnley’s advances for top talent Jack Clarke or invest their reimbursement wisely, they should go close once again.

Of the favourites, it is interesting to note both Leicester and Leeds are odds on for a Top Six finish, but Southampton can be backed at 2.00.

Punching at The Den

However, it is Millwall that looks at the value play to me at odds of 4.33. Having consistently got his side to punch above their weight since taking over in 2019, Gary Rowett was 45 minutes away from claiming a play-off place last season.

The Lions’ destiny was in their own hands on the final matchday of the regular campaign. All was going to plan as they enjoyed the half time break holding a 3-1 lead over Blackburn. A collapse to a 4-3 beating left the Londoners in 8th, albeit just two points adrift of Coventry in 5th.

It was a bitter blow for a side that had been top six for most of the season. But another top-half finish under Rowett, who has guided his team to 8th, 11th, 9th and 8th place in his full seasons in charge.

The addition of Zian Flemming last season was a masterstroke. So much so he is another attracting the attention of Burnley ahead of their return to the Premier League. As with the case of the aforementioned Jack Clarke, Millwall will either retain the services of the midfielder who fired in 15 league goals last term or pick up a sizable fee to reinvest.

Incomings to bolster forward line

Tom Bradshaw top scored with 17 in the last campaign but will have to help up front after the addition of Kevin Nisbet, which looks like another shrewd piece of business. After returning from an absence of 11 months whilst recovering from a cruciate ligament injury, the 26-year-old scored 12 league goals in 19 games for Hibernian last season. His style is sure to endear him to the notorious Den fans.

Further helped by a strong pre-season which has seen the Scot stroke home a penalty against Gillingham, plunder a hat-trick in the 3-0 win at Sutton, and grab the equaliser in a 2-2 draw with Charlton.

All of which points to Millwall mounting another assault on the Top Six, but this time a successful one. A fitting tribute to chairman John Berylson following his recent tragic death – making a further galvanised pride of Lions an even more dangerous animal.

Selection: Millwall
Odds: 4.33
Bookmaker: bet365

Championship Ante-Post Top Six Odds via bet365 as at 13:16, July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Championship Ante-Post Top Scorer Odds: Joel likely full of goals and leads my Top Scorer shortlist

Leicester players dominate this market, but I have no hesitation in looking beyond favourites Jamie Vardy, as low as 7.00, Patson Daka and Kelechi Iheanacho. The fact all three players are included suggests the goals will be shared around at the King Power. I also have my doubts that the new style of play under Enzo Maresca lends itself to goal-fests.

Chuba Akpom swept all before him last term in a sensational campaign which saw him record 28 league goals. That total was something of a surprise, given the 27-year-old hadn’t previously hit double figures in a single season.

The only other two players to hit the magical 20-goal milestone last term will not be on show this time around. Viktor Gyokeres has signed for Sporting Lisbon following his 21 goals for Coventry. While Clinton Morris’ 20-goal haul helped propel Luton Town to the promised land of the Premier League via Wembley.

It is the player next on the list that is my selection to have another prolific campaign. Joël Piroe has fired in an impressive 44 goals in 92 league appearances for Swansea across two seasons since joining from PSV for a reported £1m.

Now for a small leap of faith. The 23-year-old has been linked with all three relegated sides, but it is thought Leeds are favourites to secure his signature. Regardless, I am happy to side with Piroe in the belief he will score goals wherever his destination or if no club meets the £15m valuation and he stays in South West Wales.

The 13.00 on offer is big enough to play each way, meaning a return is guaranteed if the Dutch striker finishes in the top four for goals scored—something he has achieved in each of his two completed campaigns with the Swans.

Eye-catching outsiders

Interesting outsiders include the previously mentioned Kevin Nisbet, who is available at a standout 41.00 with bet365 but as low as 26.00 elsewhere, and Ross Stewart.

The Sunderland striker suffered a decimated season after an Achilles injury ruled him out for the remainder of the campaign as early as February. That followed missing 14 games with an earlier thigh problem.

Incredibly the Scottish international still managed to hit double figures scoring ten goals in 13 appearances, only 11 of which were starts. His average of 0.89 goals per 90 minutes actually bettered that of Golden Boot winner Akpom.

Odds of 26.00 reflect that he will miss the start of the season, with a reported return being estimated as the end of September. Stewart has shown that if he remains injury free, he is more than capable of playing catch-up.

Selection: Joël Piroe (Each Way)
Odds: 13.00
Bookmaker: Bet Victor

Championship Top Scorer Odds via Bet Victor as at 13:16, July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Championship Biggest Longshot Value Odds: Odds of 80 look weighty

No ante-post preview is complete without a monster long shot, so here goes.

Having dismissed title favourites Leicester at odds of 5.00 to win the Championship, I am prepared to get them onside for the benefit of this 80/1 selection. Enzo Moresca has, after all, played under Carlo Ancelotti, Marcello Lippi and Juande Ramos, been in the coaching set-up of not only Pep Guardiola but also Manuel Pellegrini and Unai Emery, as well as sharing a 30-year friendship with Roberto De Zerbi.

If the Italian can get his ideas across to what is still a talented squad with more additions surely to come, then promotion is very much within reach.

From heartbreak to another top half finish

Coventry suffered the heartbreak of a playoff final defeat at Wembley on penalties. Yes, they need to shake off that hangover and ‘go again’, but let’s not forget each year has seen improvement under Mark Robins.

Further progression may be a stretch too far in the absence of the departed Viktor Gyokeres, but the Sky Blues moved quickly to fill that void with the highly-rated Ellis Simms. The £8m capture from Everton had an eye-catching loan at Sunderland last season, so much so the Toffees recalled him to aid their battle against relegation.

Another top-half finish looks well in reach under Robins’ astute and grounded leadership, even more so if they can hang on to their other prized asset Gus Hamer.

Now for the league new boys. First up is Plymouth, which has tracked a similar path to that of Coventry in recent years. Promotion from League Two in 2019/20 has been followed by year-on-year improvement.

The Greens ready to surprise

An 18th-placed finish consolidated their League One status, going on to miss out on the playoffs despite amassing 80 points in 2020/21. That was put right last term when the Pilgrims relentlessly marched to the title and a total of 101 points.

Their start will be crucial to keep the momentum and confidence high, but nobody will relish the long trip to Home Park, a fortress last season—winning an incredible 20 of their 23 fixtures on home soil.

The permanent additions of last year’s loan heroes, Morgan Whittaker and Bali Mumba, will further add to the feel-good factor. Steven Schumacher’s side can take a few people by surprise, and a top-half finish is not beyond them.

I am not feeling so confident when it comes to the chances of Sheffield Wednesday. Owls fans should still be euphoric, having seen their team overturn a 4-0 first-leg deficit in the playoff semi-final against Peterborough. Going on to win their place in the Championship with a late, late victory over Barnsley at Wembley.

Chaos behind the curtain

However, since then, it has been chaos. Darren Moore left the club following an alleged dispute with chairman Dejphon Chansiri less than a month after securing promotion. His replacement is former Watford boss Xisco Munoz for whom the jury remains out.

A squad that needed a significant summer overhaul has been left to fester with only a couple of additions so far. You get the feeling that things behind the scenes are becoming somewhat frantic as the season opener against Southampton fast approaches.

Munoz doesn’t have the tools at his disposal he had with the Hornets, which could lead to trouble. A pre-season 4-0 thumping at the hands of Spanish Segunda new boys CD Eldense was followed by a 1-0 defeat at fourth-tier Doncaster.

Hardly confidence inspiring and left the Spanish manager stressing the need for reinforcements. With other contenders for the drop looking a lot more solid, I am prepared to have Wednesday making a swift return to the third tier as the final leg of the longshot.

Selection: Leicester to be promoted, Coventry and Plymouth to finish in top half & Sheffield Wednesday to be relegated
Odds: 80/1
Bookmaker: Sky Bet

Championship Biggest Longshot Value Odds via Sky Bet as at 13:16, July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

Championship Ante-Post Relegation Odds: Whoops! R’s is for Relegation.

As much as I would love to pull a big-priced rabbit out of my hat to end this preview, I simply can’t see any side outside the six favourites in this market going down. I have already explained why I think Plymouth will achieve their mission of safety, plus highlighting Sheffield Wednesday’s immediate return to League One.

That leaves four clubs trying to avoid the two remaining relegation spots; favourites Rotherham, Huddersfield, QPR and Cardiff.

The Millers performed well last year, although the loss of Chiedozie Ogbene to Luton will be a big blow. Holding on to keeper Viktor Johansson would be a massive boost. Having the experience of Sean Morrison and Jordan Hugill at either end of the pitch could be crucial. Manager Matt Taylor has enough about him to lead his side to safety.

For the Terriers survival blueprint, I only need to say two words. Neil Warnock. The 74-year-old came out of retirement to save the club from what looked like certain relegation last season.

Having been 23rd when the veteran manager began his second spell at the club, they won seven of their 15 games under him and finished 18th. After signing a one-year deal for the upcoming campaign, Huddersfield looks in safe hands to consolidate their Championship status.

Sabri Lamouchi did a solid job in guiding Cardiff to safety last season after a turbulent campaign, but his services were not retained. It has to be said, though, that the Bluebirds would be plying their trade in League One had it not been for Reading’s points deduction.

The appointment of Erol Bulot seems like a leap of faith, although there have been a couple of decent pick-ups in the transfer market. Admittedly not the player of yesteryear Aaron Ramsey’s return is an eye-catching one.

However, the club I fear for most is QPR. The R’s downward spiral from the top of the table in October to a desperate end-of-season relegation scrap was a weekly soap opera last term. Surely they could not keep losing? Surely they did.

Survival was more a result of the deficiencies of others rather than their own abilities. A couple of wins completely out of the blue was enough to drag them over the safety line. Most notably, a 2-1 win over champions Burnley that needed a double take such was its levels of shock.

Club legend Gareth Ainsworth was brought in to turn the ship around after Neil Critchley won his first game in charge but only collected five points from the following 30 available. He feared little better losing seven of his opening nine fixtures.

The former Wycombe boss performed wonders during more than a decade in charge at Adams Park – primarily competing for promotion in League One, successfully achieving it on one occasion.

That season saw the Chairboys win only 11 games and make an immediate return to the third tier after finishing 22nd. The 50-year-old appeared out of his depth last term, and the concern is for a repeat of the performances and results without the buffer given to them during Beale’s time in the dugout.

A reminder that at their lowest ebb, the Hoops recorded just two wins in 27 games. There will be a reliance on a handful of the better players. All of which were at the club last year but also are attracting interest from elsewhere.

There is value in the 4.50 quote for the Londoners to be relegated.

Selection: QPR
Odds: 4.50
Bookmaker: BetVictor

Championship Ante-Post Relegation Odds via BetVictor as at 13:16, July 28th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

What are Football Best Bets?

Best bets are our best value football picks. Our tipsters employ their knowledge and identify the best value bets. Our best bets span a wide range of markets, ranging from 1X2, goals over/under to the Asian handicap. Stay up to date with bettingexpert to follow up on the latest best bets.

Safer Gambling

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.