Champions League Semi Final Prediction Preview

The 2024/25 Champions League is down to its final four, with Arsenal, Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, and Inter Milan set to battle for a place in June’s final in Munich – let us take you through both fixtures in the Champions League semi final prediction preview.

This year’s semi-final lineup serves up four clubs from four different nations from the Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 and Serie A, making up one of the most open final fours in recent memory.

The Lay of the Land: Goals… And lots of them

This marks the second consecutive season that reigning champions Real Madrid have failed to reach the semi-finals, a rare drought for the tournament’s most successful club. However, the competition continues to evolve, and this year’s final four reflects that transition.

For the ninth straight campaign, there’s at least one semi-finalist who is yet to lift the trophy. In fact, both Arsenal and PSG remain in pursuit of their maiden European crown, a stat that speaks to the difficulty and unpredictability of the modern Champions League, which has had a shake-up and change in format in 2024/25.

Four different nations are represented – England, France, Spain, and Italy – a scenario not seen since the 2017/18 season.

The Champions League has been goal-laden this season, averaging 3.24 goals per game – a notable increase from last year’s 3.00. In the knockout stages alone, 120 goals have been scored in 40 games, an even 3.00 per match. Over half of these fixtures (21/40) have seen both teams score + at least three total goals – a strong pointer for bettors leaning toward goal-heavy markets.

That said, history warns against assuming semi-final shootouts. Across the past four seasons, only three of the last eight semi-final first legs have produced more than three goals. The average across these eight games is a modest 2.85 goals per match. The first legs of this year’s ties have projected goal totals of just 5.42 combined, suggesting tighter affairs than the tournament average.

Arsenal vs Paris Saint-Germain

Tuesday, April 29 — Emirates Stadium, London

Arsenal and PSG meet for the second time this season after the Gunners dispatched the Parisians 2-0 during the group stage in North London. The betting landscape has shifted since that October encounter. Arsenal are now priced at 2.09 to win, far longer than the 1.72 odds they carried in the group phase. It’s only the second time under Mikel Arteta they’ve been priced above evens at home – the last being their stunning 3-0 demolition of Real Madrid.

Arteta’s side are efficient rather than prolific. They rank just 17th in total shots taken at home (73) but sit fourth for xG per shot (0.16), highlighting their clinical edge. The Gunners average 2.5 goals per Champions League match, although a third of their 30 total goals came against PSV alone.

Defensively, Arsenal have been rock solid at the Emirates, conceding just two goals in six home games. The “Both Teams To Score – No” market has landed in five of those six matches, and the same selection holds for five of PSG’s seven away fixtures – a betting angle worth revisiting.

David Raya has quietly become one of the tournament’s most influential figures. The Spanish keeper leads all players with 4.3 goals prevented and has six clean sheets, second only in the competition. His 80.6% save rate is the third-best overall.

For PSG, Achraf Hakimi is a key creative outlet, ranking third for expected assists (3.4) and seventh in big chances created. The Parisians lead all semi-finalists with 19.7 shots per game but managed just ten (only two on target) when visiting the Emirates earlier this season. However, they’ve shown improved resilience in England recently, winning twice in their last five visits, including a 1-0 win at Liverpool this campaign.

BETSiE projects a tight Arsenal vs PSG semi-final, with a slight edge for the Gunners in the first leg. Arsenal are forecasted to score 1.27 goals to PSG’s 1.11, with an overall match total of 2.38. The probability breakdown gives Arsenal a 40.2% chance of winning, PSG 27.7%, and a draw at 32.2%.

Interestingly, PSG are favoured in the return leg (1.45 to 0.97 expected goals). Across both legs, the match-up looks evenly poised.

• Prediction: Arsenal 1-1 PSG
• Value bet: Under 2.5 goals at 1.90 – bet365

Barcelona vs Inter Milan

Wednesday, April 30 — Estadi Olímpic Lluís Companys, Barcelona

Barcelona returns to the Champions League semi-finals for a record 17th time. Their track record is mixed, winning seven of those ties, but this season they look rejuvenated under Hansi Flick. The Catalans lead all remaining teams with 3.08 goals per game, nearly a full goal more than Inter, with Raphinha’s breakout year central to their success. The Brazilian has 12 goal contributions in Europe and 50+ in all competitions, the first Barça player to hit that mark since the famed MSN trio in 2015/16.

Inter arrives with confidence – and clean sheets. They’ve kept five in a row, their longest run in Europe, although the underlying numbers are less flattering. The Nerazzurri have conceded 5.77 expected goals during the knockout stages, hinting that luck and last-ditch defending have played their part.

Still, they’re the tournament’s most effective shot-blockers (five per game) and the only semi-finalist yet to concede on the counter-attack – a key stat against a transition-focused Barça side.

Historically, the Italians struggle in Spain. They haven’t won in their last eight visits (two draws, six defeats), including just one victory in Barcelona way back in 1970. Meanwhile, the hosts have won six of their 12 meetings with Inter.

Bookmakers expect goals here, with Over 2.5 goals priced at 1.57 — significantly shorter than in the Arsenal-PSG tie (1.90). BETSiE projections rank both the first (3.04) and second-leg (3.01) ties as the most likely to exceed three goals.

• Prediction: Barcelona 2-1 Inter Milan
• Value bet: Both Teams To Score – Yes at 1.73 – bet365
• Player prop: Raphinha Anytime Goalscorer

Champions League Semi Final prediction: Who’s Heading to Munich?

BETSiE, bettingexpert’s predictive data model, gives a clear edge to the Arsenal vs PSG semi-final winner in the race for the trophy, assigning a combined 73.3% chance to the victor. PSG top the list with a 44.2% probability of winning it all, while Arsenal follow at 29.1%. Barcelona sit third at 23.2%, ahead of Inter Milan at just 11.5%.

However, when it comes to reaching the final, Inter (44.5%) surprisingly edges Arsenal (42%), reflecting the Italians’ manageable second leg at the San Siro.

• Outright Value Tip: Barcelona to win the Champions League at 4.5. With the best attack, favourable first leg, and a manager with prior UCL success, there’s a strong upside in backing Barça for glory.

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