Champions League MD7 Predictions: Catching Winter Break Victims Cold

There is a new quirk to the Champions League this season, and it’s one we’ll continue seeing year after year under this new eight-match league format. With the extra two games in January, there’s now European clubs approaching Champions League MD7 having not played competitive football in over a month. Sam Ingram is opposing two of said clubs below.

• Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb: Arsenal FH Win and Under 4.5 Goals
• Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan: Inter Milan -1.25AH

Double odds: 4.04

The Football Betting Podcast, Champions League MD7 is OUT NOW!

It’s the penultimate matchday of the Champions League this week as Mark Stinchcombe, Scott Thornton, Sam Ingram and Daniel Jenkins run through the winter break-affected schedule.

Scott really, really, really likes his Pod Treble punt, whilst Sam aims to target the clubs yet to play competitively in 2025. All that and more…

Arsenal vs Dinamo Zagreb: Fast Starters

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, January 22nd, 20:00 (UK)

Arsenal have hit a sticky patch of form results-wise, but they’re still creating chances and are still very, very capable at home. This match stands out because you can say what you want about Arsenal right now – that they need to sign a striker – they’re missing Saka – too reliant on set pieces – whatever it is, but the one constant at the Emirates is their intent from minute one.

Last time out against Aston Villa at half-time, we saw five corners to nil, 0.64xG, and a 1-0 lead. Versus Tottenham: 2-1 to Arsenal at the interval. There was lots of pressure in that Tottenham defensive third – Arsenal recorded 35 final third entries in the opening 45 minutes.

With grumblings around recent form and their title challenge, I’m guessing that Arsenal starts this game intensely – shots, goals, corners, and lots of play in Dinamo’s half. You’re not going to get a pro-Arsenal price of any substance on the main markets, so you’ll have to utilise the bet builder: Arsenal Win FH and Under 4.5 Goals @ 2.10.

The first-half pick, considering what we’ve touched on, is understandable. We’re banking on not only Arsenal starting fast but also Dinamo Zagreb, who have played only friendlies across the last month; we’re leaning on the likelihood of them starting slowly and being a yard off the pace. They’ve scheduled their friendlies for the 9th/12th/15th of January and then straight into Arsenal away on the 22nd. You can’t help but be dubious about that – it is far from ideal. You won’t get the same intensity from a friendly, no matter who you’re playing.

The second half of the bet is born from me really liking Arsenal win to nil. We know it can be a dodgy market – sides at this level have the quality to find the net when you’re least expecting or against the run of play – and it’s at around 1.66 – so, instead, the Under 4.5 goals, if thinking along the lines of Arsenal winning to nil, would mean Arsenal need to score five goals for this bet to lose. And with this selection, Dinamo Zagreb are fine to score in a low-scoring win.

Arsenal have been winning at half-time in four of six Champions League matches this season, including all three of their home matches, which they’ve won to nil: 3-0 vs Monaco, 2-0 vs PSG, and 1-0 vs Shakhtar.

• Selection: Arsenal FH Win & Under 4.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.15
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Sparta Prague vs Inter Milan: Prague Priorities

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, January 22nd, 20:00 (UK)

Here we have a match where a big Champions League team needs a result to confirm a top 8 Champions League spot against a side that isn’t yet back from its winter break. Sparta’s last competitive game was on the 15th of December. They’ve only played two friendlies since then.

There’s also a massive incentive here for Inter to go to Prague, win, and win well, and that incentive revolves around their fiercest rivals, AC Milan…

If Inter beats Sparta, they’ll go into Monaco at home on the last match day already qualified. This would be hugely important because MD8 in the Champions League comes just four days before Inter vs AC Milan in Serie A.

Inter are chasing Napoli, and the Milan derby is obviously a fierce derby in itself. Not only that, but Inter will be seeking payback there following the Super Cup collapse at the hands of AC Milan from being 2-0 ahead.

Even if AC Milan beat Girona on MD7 this week, they’re unlikely to be able to confirm progressing to the Round of 16. They’ll have to go to Zagreb on MD8, play their best side, and attempt to pick up points. They won’t have the luxury of resting and rotating like Inter will if they beat Sparta Prague here.

I know Inter have chopped and changed their starting eleven in this competition ahead of tricky Serie A fixtures; Lautaro Martinez has only started 2 Champions League matches this season to give you an example of Inzahi’s team selection – but I think this is one they have to prioritise and get the win. I’d be shocked if they don’t turn them over. Atleti came to Prague and won 6-0 not long ago to give you an idea of the opponent they face here.

Inter Milan -1.25AH: this line means that if Inter wins by one goal, we get half of our stake back; if they win by two or more, the bet wins.

• Selection: Inter Milan -1.25AH (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.88
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Champions League Tips and Predictions Odds via bet365 as at 13:00, January 21st, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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