Champions League Early Bird: Where Are The Standout Prices?

The Champions League Round of 16 is fast approaching, providing us bettors with interesting opportunities and glamour ties such as PSG vs Liverpool, Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid, and Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen.

It’s the same nation ties normally existing in La Liga and the Bundesliga that have caught Sam Ingram’s eye for this Champions League early bird write-up. Can Leverkusen swing the Champions League bragging rights from Munich into their favour momentarily? Will the Madrid derby live up to billing?

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Real to Edge Fiery Madrid Derby

It’s a tough tie, of course, but this is Real Madrid. This is Real Madrid in the Champions League at the Bernabeu. At 1.91, that’s a proposition I’ll snatch with both hands in this competition in a knockout tie. The La Liga behemoths reached this stage of the tournament for the 21st consecutive season, only failing to progress from the Round of 16 twice in the past 15 years.

Real Madrid have made it to the semi-finals and beyond in 12 of the last 14 editions of the Champions League, winning the trophy on six occasions.

A one-goal margin defeat for Atleti is a decent result at the Bernabeu. That’s the beauty of two legs and taking positions on the main markets – teams will often settle for a negative result in the final stages if the feeling is they’re taking a salvageable result back home.

However, it should be noted that Real Madrid haven’t beaten Atletico Madrid in regulation time since September 2022, a run of eight matches. Los Blancos have won the three cup meetings in that period during extra time.

Anything But Straightforward

This won’t be straightforward, but if you’re someone who regularly backs Real Madrid in this competition, like me, you’ll be acutely aware of how appealing the 1.91 price to win the first leg appears. Carlo Ancelotti’s Real Madrid gets the job done when it matters. A Madrid derby in the Round of 16 is just that – a glamour tie that matters. 

Atleti were fortunate at the Bernabeu in their most recent outing (1.72npxG vs 0.66npxG). Diego Simeone’s men required a suspect penalty to edge in front in what was a hard-fought draw against a Real outfit that have won ten of 12 at the Bernabeu in La Liga.

In the Champions League, Atletico Madrid have netted 20 goals from an xG of 13.81, making them the biggest overperformers in the competition with an xGDiff of +6.19. Interestingly, BETSiE projects that there will be 3.55 goals in the first leg of the Madrid derby, making it the highest-scoring first leg in the Round of 16.

With 20 goals scored from 13.81 xG, Atletico Madrid is the side with the highest positive xGD in the competition. Continue that, and we might have a blockbuster of an opening 90 minutes on our hands.

Alonso Has The Upper Hand on Kompany and Bayern?

Despite being 1.50 favourites to progress, Bayern Munich have failed to win any of their last six head-to-heads with Bayer Leverkusen (2.37 to qualify). Over that period, they have scored an average of just 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.50. 

Uncoincidentally, Xabi Alonso took the reins as Bayer Leverkusen manager six head-to-heads ago, remaining unbeaten in said six meetings (3W/3D) against Bayern Munich.

As you can imagine, this isn’t the first time Bayern has been a heavy favourite at home in this competition in 2024/25. The most recent playoff round fixture saw Bayern Munich kick off as 1.18 favourites versus Celtic in the second leg of the previous round. A 94th-minute Alphonso Davies strike rescued a 1-1 draw and saved blushes in Germany, with the Bavarian giants progressing thanks to a 3-2 aggregate scoreline. 

Bayern Munich boasts an average of 2.53xG per90, which is the most in the Champions League. Their xGD (Expected Goals Difference) is also the best in the competition, with +1.63xGD. That will skew the bookmaker’s data models and prices. 

However, that doesn’t portray Bayern’s struggles up to this point. After all, their 12th-placed finish outside of the top eight, somewhere Leverkusen (6th) comfortably resided, smacks of a usually dominant European outfit not quite at their domineering best.

Big Name Bias?

Top-eight finishers, Bayer Leverkusen, led by Xabi Alonso, are a team Bayern Munich struggle against. You only have to look back at Bayern’s visit to Leverkusen only weeks ago to come to that conclusion. 

Leverkusen limited their visitors to zero shots in the first half – the first time on record since shots data was collected that the Bavarians failed to have a first-half shot in the Bundesliga. Harry Kane’s blocked first attempt came in the 71st minute before Leon Goretzka blazed an effort wide, as Vincent Kompany’s men left with one point and two shots to their name.

At the prices, why would you back this Bayern Munich side at 1.50 to qualify? Yes, they’ve been there and done it numerous times. But this is a different iteration of Bayern Munich and one led by an inexperienced coach who certainly hasn’t been there and done it at this level.

I wonder how heavily the market we see in front of us is influenced by big-name bias, historical trends, and Bayern’s underlying data in the competition this season.

The odds in this betting game govern us, and everything suggests backing the Bundesliga champions and Xabi Alonso to see out a historic Round of 16 double-header.

Safer Gambling

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