Football | Monday, February 14, 2022 12:07 PM (Revised at: Wednesday, February 16, 2022 7:29 AM)

Champions League Betting Value Report Cards 2021/22

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bettingexpert Chief Editor

Looking for betting value in the Champions League knockout stage? Europe’s premier club competition is ready to restart with 16 teams remaining in the competition. There are plenty of outright betting markets available but which ones should you back? This is where the Champions League Value Report Cards will help. We’ve got best bets for all 16 Champions League teams in this article:

How to find betting value in the Champions League
Bayern Munich Best Bet
Manchester City Best Bet
Chelsea Best Bet

How our Champions League Betting Value Report Cards Work

You know the drill by now. I grade each participating side based on how much betting value I think can be extracted from them. It’s basically ranking the sides based on how under or over-valued I think they are by the bookmakers.

This is the third iteration of the bettingexpert News Value Report Cards for football and the fifth overall. The others have been superbly successful which bodes well for this special Champions League edition.

The Euro 2021 Betting Value Report Cards gave eventual winners Italy the A+ grade. Semi-finalists Spain were also given a B while France and Germany justified their lower grades with early exits.

The 2021/22 Premier League Value Report Cards identified Arsenal as the side with the most betting value. Runaway leaders Manchester City were given a high grade, as were Brighton, Wolves, Crystal Palace and Brentford who are all enjoying good seasons. The F Grade was reserved for strugglers Everton.

We’re hoping for similar success this time around.

It’s All About Value

Value can be found in every time – whether that is by backing them to succeed or to fail. A basic rule of thumb for the Value Report Cards is this: For the A and B grades I think value can be found backing on them to succeed. I believe that the best way to find value for the E and F grades is to bet against them. The C and D grades are pretty much where I expect them to be.

Based on that information, I’ve compiled a list of best bets – one for each of the 16 teams remaining in the competition. The choice of outright markets is slim so for many I leaned on match odds.

Without further ado, here are the Champions League Betting Value Report Cards 2021/22.

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The A Grades

Bayern Munich: A+

Bayern Munich are top of the class in the 2021/22 Champions League betting value report cards. Julian Nagelsmann’s side have been the most impressive in the competition thus far. Bayern won all six group stage matches including both games against FC Barcelona. They’ve scored more goals than anyone else and only conceded three times in the process.

Clean sheets are often the best barometer of success in this competition. All four finalists in the last two seasons have been the sides to keep the highest number of clean sheets. Yes, they played the most matches but the trends were obvious from the group stages. Tottenham in 2018/19 were the only finalists in the last three seasons not to have been amongst the sides to keep the highest number of clean sheets in this competition.

Bayern have the experience, the winning habit and the goals to win this competition. They’re the second-favourites behind Manchester City which gives them the edge in terms of value. They’re averaging over 3.5 goals scored per game across all competition this season. Bayern are top of the class for a good reason.

Bayern Munich Best Bet

Back them to win the whole thing at 4.90. Those are great odds considering they’re 2.75 to reach the final.

Bayern Munich Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	5.00	20.0%
To Reach the Final	2.75	36.4%
To Reach the Semis	1.50	66.7%
To Reach the Quarters	1.08	92.6%
To Win 1st Leg	1.36	73.5%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Salzburg vs Bayern Munich Tips

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Chelsea: A

Chelsea are another high-value side in this season’s Champions League. The current holders won’t go down lightly and are set up to frustrate and counter. They’ve only lost three matches in cup competitions since Thomas Tuchel took over in January 2021. That’s three out of a possible 27. All three games were by one goal to nil. Chelsea have conceded more than once in only one of Tuchel’s 27 cup matches in charge. That was the 3-3 draw with Zenit earlier this season.

This Blues side is perfect for cup competitions with a solid defence – they’ve only conceded eight goals in the Champions League since the start of last season – and quality up front. Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner haven’t been firing in the league

They’ve struggled at times in the league this season but this competition suits them. They’re the dark horses in the Champions League – just as they were last season. No side has kept more Champions League clean sheets than them this season and only Bayern and Real Madrid have conceded fewer goals. I get the feeling that whoever wins this year’s competition will have to get past Chelsea.

Chelsea Best Bet

I’m backing the Blues to be the English team to progress furthest in the competition at 3.75.

Chelsea Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	9.00	11.1%
To Reach the Final	4.50	22.2%
To Reach the Semis	2.00	50.0%
To Reach the Quarters	1.29	77.5%
To Win 1st Leg	1.36	73.5%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Lille vs Chelsea Tips

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Villarreal: A-

I have the Europa League holders as dark horses this year. Unai Emery’s side upset the odds in Europe’s second club competition last season and now they’re hoping to do it on a bigger stage.

They aren’t having a great season in La Liga. They’re hovering around the European spots but are going through that late-season push we often see from sides in Spain. The Yellow Submarine won only three of their first 15 La Liga matches.

Villarreal have improved. They’ve won six out of eight since then. They’re scoring goals at a higher rate but the biggest improvement is defensive. They’ve only conceded six times in their last eight matches. That run included a 2-0 victory over high-flyers Real Betis.

Manager Unai Emery has a remarkable record in European competitions. He’s won 89 of his 160 matches with Villarreal, Arsenal, PSG, Sevilla, Valencia and Spartak Moscow. They’ll be a tough side for Juventus to get past, especially considering the Italian club’s recent record in this competition.

If Villarreal can get past them then they’re looking like the smart value pick. They’re 2.75 to reach the quarters which looks great value. 13.00 to reach the semis looks even better. They’re exactly the kind of selection that deserves high marks in the Value Report cards.

Villarreal best bet

Back them with low stakes to reach the semi-finals at 13.00. Not much to lose, potentially a lot to gain.

Villarreal Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	201.00	0.5%
To Reach the Final	67.00	1.5%
To Reach the Semis	13.00	7.7%
To Reach the Quarters	2.75	36.4%
To Win 1st Leg	2.75	36.4%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Villarreal vs Juventus Tips

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The B Grades

Ajax: B+

Ajax must be taken seriously in this competition. The Dutch champions have a perfect record so far and have only been outscored by Bayern Munich. Ajax won all their group stage matches including two victories over Borussia Dortmund. They beat the German side by a combined scoreline of 7-1.

Erik Ten Haag’s men have the top scorer in the competition in Sebastian Haller. The former West Ham man has 10 goals so far and leads the way for xG/90. They’re a skilled football team.

Only four sides have made fewer long passes than Ajax. They’re are amongst the top sides for average match possession, defensive actions and the lowest number of shots allowed per match. The data implies one of the best sides in the competition and the eye test shows a team at the top of its game. They’ll be tough to beat.

Ajax Best Bet

They’ve got a decent draw into the quarters so 3.00 for them to make the semi-finals looks a good bet.

Ajax Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	15.00	6.7%
To Reach the Final	7.50	13.3%
To Reach the Semis	3.00	33.3%
To Reach the Quarters	1.33	75.2%
To Win 1st Leg	2.06	48.5%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Ajax vs Benfica Tips

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Liverpool: B

It’s hard to discount Liverpool. Jurgen Klopp’s men are amongst the best sides in Europe and capable of beating anyone. The Reds look on course for another solid Premier League season and have had a perfect start in the Champions League.

Liverpool have the most shots on target per match and the second-highest average possession. They’ve also only allowed an average of 7.2 shots on their goal per match, that’s the second-lowest in the competition behind Bayern Munich. They have plenty of goals in the side with 17 to their name already.

As always, Anfield will be their secret weapon in Europe. They’ve only lost one Champions League match in 90 minutes at home in the last eight years. That was against Atalanta in the group stage last season. I expect them to do well but I don’t think there’s that much value backing them in the outright markets.

Liverpool Best Bet

Back them to reach the semis at 2.00.

Liverpool Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	6.50	15.4%
To Reach the Final	3.75	26.7%
To Reach the Semis	1.44	69.4%
To Reach the Quarters	1.29	77.5%
To Win 1st Leg	2.12	47.2%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Inter vs Liverpool Tips

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Manchester City: B-

They’re the tournament favourites which makes it difficult to justify backing them considering what we’ve seen in recent years. Manchester City were last season’s runners-up in this competition and are eager to go one step further. They’re the 3.75 favourites to do just that, well ahead of Bayern Munich at 4.90.

City have produced some rather entertaining matches thus far. Both teams have scored in five of their six games thus far. Manchester City have conceded a total of 10 goals in six matches. That’s more than all but one of the sides that have progressed to the knockout stages. Only Sporting CP conceded more than them in the group stages after they shipped nine in two games against Ajax.

But the Champions League title is the goal for Pep Guardiola. The Spaniard hasn’t lifted the trophy for over a decade despite achieving remarkable domestic success. The data suggests that City haven’t actually performed too badly defensively. They’ve only allowed an average of 7.3 shots per game, the third-lowest in the competition. They’re the favourites and a top team but I don’t think those odds represent great betting value.

Manchester City Best Bet

Back them to win the first leg against Sporting at 1.33.

Manchester City Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	3.75	26.7%
To Reach the Final	2.50	40.0%
To Reach the Semis	1.44	69.4%
To Reach the Quarters	1.08	92.6%
To Win 1st Leg	1.33	75.2%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Sporting CP vs Manchester City Tips

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The C Grades

Real Madrid: C+

Will things be different for Real Madrid this year? Los Blancos’ domination of this competition feels like a long time ago. Four trophies in five seasons and eight consecutive semi-final appearances. That was the most dominant spell in this competition for over 50 years. It’s two round-of-16 exits in three years since then.

Real Madrid have reached the knockout stage yet again. They finished top of Group B after a convincing run of results. It was five wins from six for Carlo Ancelotti’s men with the sole defeat coming in that shocking game against Sheriff Tiraspol.

The most impressive part of Madrid’s qualifying campaign was their results against Inter Milan. They beat the Italian champions twice without conceding a goal. Madrid only conceded three goals in six matches, two of which came against Sheriff.

The issue for Real is the draw. They’re massive outsiders to go far in this competition which bodes well in terms of value. They’ll just have to get past Paris Saint-Germain to get there. It was one of the toughest draws they could have got.

The centre-back pairing of David Alaba and Eder Militao has worked well for much of the season but their issues are further up the pitch. Karim Benzema has enjoyed another excellent season for Los Blancos but his recent injury has proven his significance. Madrid have suffered without the Frenchman who should be available for the first leg against PSG but may not be fully fit. Their second-biggest goal threat, Vinicius Junior is yet to show his quality in the bigger matches in this competition.

Real Madrid Best Bet

Back them to reach the quarters at 2.20.

Real Madrid Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	20.00	5.0%
To Reach the Final	9.00	11.1%
To Reach the Semis	4.00	25.0%
To Reach the Quarters	2.20	45.5%
To Win 1st Leg	3.70	27.0%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

PSG vs Real Madrid Tips

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Inter Milan: C

Inter Milan finished behind Real Madrid in Group D and they’re behind Los Blancos in the Value Report Cards. Again, a lot of that is down to their draw in the first knockout round. Nerazzurri take on Liverpool in one of the toughest match-ups. They’re way out at 4.00 to reach the quarter-finals.

The Serie A leaders have enjoyed an excellent defence of their title thus far. That is all despite losing key players such as Romelu Lukaku and Achraf Hakimi last summer. They’ve been top of Serie A since early December under new manager Simone Inzaghi.

Their Champions League campaign went fairly well. Their only defeats came against Real Madrid home and away as Inter comfortably made the knockout stage. Goals have been an issue for them. Many of their matches have been low-scoring with an average of 2.17 goals per game. That’s the second-lowest of any of the sides that qualified. That figure drops to 0.33 total goals when looking just at the first half of matches, the lowest in the competition.

Inzaghi needs to get forward Lautaro Martinez firing in this competition. Martinez is their top scorer in Serie A with 11 goals but is yet to find the net in the Champions League. He hasn’t scored in any of his last nine Champions League appearances. That will have to change if they want to get past Liverpool.

Inter Milan Best Bet

Under 0.5 goals in the 1st half against Liverpool. That’s at 3.45.

Inter Milan Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	51.00	2.0%
To Reach the Final	29.00	3.4%
To Reach the Semis	9.00	11.11%
To Reach the Quarters	4.00	25.0%
To Win 1st Leg	3.70	27.0%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Inter vs Liverpool Tips

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Juventus: C-

Juventus overcame the defending champions in Group H. They finished on 15 points ahead of Chelsea in 2nd. Max Allegri’s side conceded six goals in six matches, four of which came in their 4-0 defeat against the Blues.

They were once a regular presence in the latter stages of this competition but have struggled in recent years. The unsuccessful Cristiano Ronaldo experiment led to two successive exits in the round of 16. The problem is clear – Juventus struggle in away matches. They’ve lost three of their last four Champions League knockout away games and drew the other. That came after an impressive run of three wins in four, including a 3-1 victory at the Santiago Bernabeu.

Juventus have a decent draw this time around. They’ll face Villarreal and will expect to get past the Spanish side. It will be a tougher match for them than the odds suggest. I think Villarreal could stage an upset.

Juventus willl be difficult to score against but I’m not convinced by their attacking output. Juve only scored 10 times in six matches in the group stage. Seven of those goals came in two of the six games. Paulo Dybala has done well but the sale of Dejan Kulusevski and injury to Federico Chiesa will blunt their attack.

3.50 odds of reaching the semi-finals is possibly the only bet I’d look at but I feel that Juventus will struggle in the quarters. They haven’t made the final 4 of this competition for five years and I don’t expect that to change this season.

Juventus Best Bet

Under 2.5 goals in the 1st leg is 1.75.

Juventus Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	34.00	2.9%
To Reach the Final	12.00	8.3%
To Reach the Semis	3.50	28.6%
To Reach the Quarters	1.57	63.7%
To Win 1st Leg	2.88	34.7%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Villarreal vs Juventus Tips

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The D Grades

PSG: D+

On paper, it has to be them. PSG have the best player of all time playing alongside some of the current greats in world football. They have a manager who has got a worse side than this to the Champions League final and are steaming towards another league title. Despite that, PSG are still only the fifth-favourites to lift the trophy this year.

It’s hard to disagree with the bookmakers’ assessment. I think PSG will struggle, especially in the latter stage of the competition. They may have already beaten the favourites. They triumphed 2-0 over Manchester City on matchday 2 after losing twice to Pep Guardiola’s men in this competition last season. They then lost the return leg in Manchester and dropped points in both their away matches.

The issues are defensive. A front three of Messi, Neymar and Kylian Mbappe is remarkable but won’t provide a strong press or track defensively. We’ve seen it already in this competition. That 2-0 win against City was the only time PSG have kept a clean sheet in the competition this season. They conceded eight goals in the group stage. Only three qualifying sides conceded more.

PSG Best Bet

2.06 to win the first leg at the Parc des Princes looks the best bet.

PSG Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	11.00	9.1%
To Reach the Final	5.50	18.2%
To Reach the Semis	2.80	35.7%
To Reach the Quarters	1.83	54.6%
To Win 1st Leg	2.06	48.5%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

PSG vs Real Madrid Tips

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Atletico Madrid: D

I’m not expecting too much from Atletico Madrid. Los Colchoneros have struggled in La Liga and had a disappointing start in the Champions League. They finished 2nd behind Liverpool, some 11 points off the English side. Diego Simeone’s men may have been heading out of Europe entirely but for that crucial 3-1 win over FC Porto on matchday 6.

They’ll face Manchester United in the round of 16. It’s a fairly even draw but the English side are the favourites so Atletico have the edge in the Value Report Cards. Still, I just feel that Simeone’s side will get caught out – either in that round of 16 match or more likely in the quarter-finals.

There hasn’t been too much of a drop off in terms of goals for or against. They scored as many as they did in the group stage last season. One fewer than the season before that. Atletico’s demise on the European stage has been a slow, perhaps inevitable burn. They’ve won only one knockout tie in the last three seasons. They may get through to the quarters this year but I can’t see them getting much further.

Atletico Madrid Best Bet

Back them to win the first leg at 2.50.

Atletico Madrid Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	41.00	2.4%
To Reach the Final	17.00	5.9%
To Reach the Semis	5.00	20.0%
To Reach the Quarters	2.38	42.0%
To Win 1st Leg	2.50	40.0%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Tips

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Manchester United: D-

Manchester United made it through what should have been a comparatively straightforward group. They topped Group F with 11 points. They finished ahead of Villarreal, Atalanta and BSC Young Boys, taking only one point from their games against The Swiss side.

United’s issue in the Champions League has been their away form. The Red Devils have won only three of their last nine away matches in the Champions League. Two of those wins came in a couple of extraordinary matches at the Parc des Princes against PSG. Since the departure of Sir Alex Ferguson, United have lost away games against PSV, Wolfsburg, Basel, Valencia and Istanbul Basaksehir.

They concede too many goals on the road. The 2-0 win against Villarreal in November was the first time United have kept a clean sheet in an away Champions League match since a 3-0 win over Young Boys in 2018. That was 10 matches ago.

They’ll travel to the Wanda Metropolitano to take on Atletico Madrid in the first leg of their Champions League round of 16 tie. It’s a daunting prospect for them. The hope rests on the shoulders of Cristiano Ronaldo. The Portuguese forward is the all-time top scorer in Champions League knockout matches. He’s scored six goals in five appearances for them in Europe this season. Ronaldo has scored more goals against Atletico Madrid than he has against any other side in his career. He could be the difference-maker.

Manchester United Best Bet

Back them to Qualify for the Quarters at 1.75

Manchester United Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	21.00	4.8%
To Reach the Final	8.00	12.5%
To Reach the Semis	3.50	28.6%
To Reach the Quarters	1.75	57.1%
To Win 1st Leg	3.20	31.3%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Atletico Madrid vs Manchester United Tips

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The E Grades

Benfica: E+

We now come to the sides that, in all honesty, look destined for an early exit. Benfica have the best chance of these four teams. They take on Ajax, a team that has won all six matches and scored 20 goals.

It’s a daunting prospect but this team that took four points from two matches against FC Barcelona in the group stage. The Portuguese side got through Group E with eight points, the second-fewest points of any of the qualifying teams this season.

They’re well off the pace in the Primeira Liga. Benfica are over 10 points behind the leaders Porto and it doesn’t look as if that will change any time soon. The form cost manager Jorge Jesus his job with caretaker boss Nelson Verissimo set to take charge until the end of the season.

Their hopes rest on the 22-year-old forward Darwin Nunez. The Uruguayan has scored 23 goals in 27 matches for them this campaign including three in the Champions League. I doubt his goals will be enough against Ajax.

Benfica Best Bet

Benfica +0.5 (AH) in the first leg is reasonable. They rarely lose at home.

Benfica Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	251.00	0.4%
To Reach the Final	101.00	1.0%
To Reach the Semis	19.00	5.3%
To Reach the Quarters	4.00	25.0%
To Win 1st Leg	3.85	26.0%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Ajax vs Benfica Tips

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Sporting CP: E

Another Portuguese side, another likely round of 16 exit. Sporting CP have a tougher match than their countrymen. They’ll face the Premier League champions and tournament favourites Manchester City.

They got through on goal difference ahead of the German side Borussia Dortmund in Group C. Group winners Ajax proved to be Sporting’s Achilles’ Heel. They lost 5-1 and 4-2 in the two matches against the Dutch side, conceding three-quarters of their season tally in the process. Goals weren’t an issue for Sporting who bagged 14 in total. Only three sides outscored them in the group stage.

Sporting have got the E grade down to the fact that City have shown defensive vulnerabilities so far this season. Pep Guardiola’s men have conceded a remarkable 10 goals thus far. That’s twice as many as they conceded during the whole of their Champions League campaign last season that saw them reach the final. I don’t expect Sporting to get through but they have a slim chance given City’s defensive record.

Sporting Best Bet

Just go over on goals against City. Over 3.5 goals is 2.50.

Sporting CP Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	251.00	0.4%
To Reach the Final	101.00	1.0%
To Reach the Semis	51.00	9.6%
To Reach the Quarters	4.00	25.0%
To Win 1st Leg	3.85	26.0%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Sporting CP vs Manchester City Tips

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Lille: E-

The Ligue 1 champions won’t retain the title and it looks as if a round-of-16 exit is incoming in the Champions League. Lille are well off the pace set by league leaders PSG. They’re sat in midtable and have a difficult match against the holders, Chelsea in the Champions League.

Things have improved for Jocelyn Gourvennec’s side. Lille have only lost two of their last 11 games in Ligue 1. Unfortunately for them, only four of those matches were victories. Goals have been an issue. The once-lethal partnership of Burak Yilmaz and Jonathan David hasn’t been as efficient. Neither player has scored a domestic goal in 2022.

Expect few goals. Lille have had an average of 1.8 total match goals in the Champions League this season. That’s the lowest of any qualifying side. Chelsea haven’t been at their best in the Premier League this season but they should have little trouble beating this Lille side.

Lille Best Bet

Lille +1.5 (AH) in the first leg may come off given it’s played in France. That’s at 1.89.

Lille Champions League Odds	Odds	Implied Percentage
To Win Outright	251.00	0.4%
To Reach the Final	101.00	1.0%
To Reach the Semis	26.00	3.85%
To Reach the Quarters	4.75	21.1%
To Win 1st Leg	10.50	9.5%

Best odds available as 10:30 am on 14th February 2022. Odds may now differ.

Lille vs Chelsea Tips

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The F Grades

Salzburg: F

FC Salzburg are bottom of the class. It’s an F grade for the Austrian side that has had it fairly easy in this competition thus far. Group G contained Lille, Sevilla and Wolfsburg to create what was certainly the weakest of the eight groups. Salzburg finished 2nd with 10 points after defeats Lille and Wolfsburg away from home. They won all three of their matches at Stadion Wals-Siezenheim.

But things get a little tougher for them now in their first Champions League knockout match. Salzburg will face Bayern Munich in the round of 16 with the first leg in Austria. If they’re to get anything out of this tie then surely they’ll rely on that first match.

There is hope in the young forward Karim Adeyemi. Once of the Bayern Munich youth teams, Adeyemi scored his first goal for the German national side earlier this season. He’s scoring at a comparable rate to former Salzburg man Erling Haaland – and may soon replace him at Borussia Dortmund. Adeyemi has four Champions League goals already this season and could make an impression against his former club. There is less hope for his current employers in this tie.

Salzburg Best Bet

Salzburg +0.5 (AH) in the first leg is 3.45 but I don’t have much confidence.