Champions League Acca Tips and Predictions: UCL MD8 Best Bets

The final league phase matchday of this season’s Champions League is here, and with that, Sam Ingram has readied a Champions League tips and predictions article for you to peruse.

Can Manchester City leapfrog Club Brugge and avoid embarrassment? Will Aston Villa do enough to sneak into the top eight places? Maybe, but here, Sam’s best bets lay in wait elsewhere across the 16 MD8 fixtures:

• Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan: Over 9.0 Asian Corners
• Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava: Bayern Win FH & O3.5 FH Corners

UEFA Champions League MD8 Podcast: The Football Betting Pod Out NOW!!

After another successful week of tipping, the panel is back to work their way through the Champions League MD8 slate: NINE selections, a pod treble, and a self proclaimed Alexander Isak-like streak of form.

Only two of the 18 matches have nothing riding on them on MD8, so plenty of twists, turns, and drama is expected in UEFA’s flagship domestic competition.

(03:22) 1ST BET: Dinamo vs Milan
(09:57) Manchester City vs Club Brugge
(18:18) Barca vs Atalanta
(25:05) Bayern vs Slovan
(30:04) Aston Villa  vs Celtic

Apple Podcasts: https://tinyurl.com/yjzvykdz
Spotify: https://tinyurl.com/5fzhrnjf
YouTube: https://tinyurl.com/4429sw4x

Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan: Wins Needed

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, January 29th, 20:00 (UK)

Along with Inter Milan vs Monaco, the Under/Over 9.0 Asian Corner line in Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan is the lowest offered by bet365 for MD8.

In pricing corners this way, for me, bet365 is overlooking how this final fixture is poised, what it means for both clubs and how both clubs need to win.

Let’s dig into the lay of the land here:

There are 11 teams tightly bunched on 12-14 points below AC Milan on 15 in 6th-place in the UCL league standings. The likelihood is that AC Milan simply has to win to lock in a top 8 position.

I can’t talk in absolutes because there’s no guarantee that they won’t get to the top 8 if they draw, but it’s unlikely.

A draw presumably won’t do, especially considering 7/11 of those sides within striking distance also hold a 4+ Goal Difference or greater. If a couple of those teams win and AC Milan don’t, they’ll swap places at the top.

Zagreb away is the assignment for the Italians. Fabio Cannavaro’s Croatian champions, Dinamo, sit two places and two points shy of the top 24. It’s all or nothing for them – a draw won’t do. Without three points, their Champions League campaign is over at the first hurdle.

With that mindset, I’d like to think AC Milan is granted the opportunity to counter and pick Dinamo off at will. This is the home side’s third game in seven days following a return from winter break.

In terms of stature, experience, know-how, playing staff, and financial muscle – all the ingredients one usually needs to progress in this competition – AC Milan has it – Dinamo doesn’t. That doesn’t mean Wednesday evening is a foregone conclusion, but it explains the 1.50 price on Milan to win in Croatia.

And let’s not forget just how good AC Milan’s Champions League campaign has been to date. After two defeats to kickstart the competition vs Liverpool and Leverkusen, Milan have put together a five-game win streak from MD3-MD7: Club Brugge, Real Madrid at the Bernabeu (1-3), Slovan, Crvena Zvezda and Girona – they’ve won the xG battle in 4/5 on this run and racked up 2.45xG vs Real Madrid, who only just edged the underlying contest. Milan was good value for the 3-1 win at the Bernabeu; they were imposing. And overall, it’s been a hugely impressive campaign for them.

Corners, Please

Nine or more corners has landed in 89% for Dinamo Zagreb (11.56 corners per90 average) and 71% for AC Milan (9.71 per90) in this edition of the Champions League league phase. Nine or more corners has landed in 11/14 of these two sides’ UCL matches combined.

⛳️ Dinamo corner totals: 14, 14, 11, 14, 12, 6 & 12.

⛳️ AC Milan corner totals: 9, 10, 12, 13, 8, 9 & 7.

Regardless of previous corner totals, the game state moves this into a different kind of encounter. When we see a goal – the earlier, the better – the opposing team will have to advance up the pitch and apply pressure in the final third. In turn, that’ll leave the aggressors susceptible on the counter. As we know, fast breaks and counters often lead to shots/GKs/corners – general action in the final third.

With how this game is poised, we might even see 3 or 4 corners in the final ten minutes alone, with desperation seeping into the final stages – that’d make up nearly half of the total we need to land the bet.

• Selection: Over 9.0 Asian Corners (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.90
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava: Intent From Minute One

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, January 29th, 20:00 (UK)

Like Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund, Bayern need to win here and win well. They need to massage those Goal Difference stats and hope that results go their way. If the stars align, they’ll get a top 8 spot – BETSiE has handed them an 8.8% chance of top 8 qualification.

This should really fit the same kind of mould that we’ve seen from Bayern so often when they play this level of opponent, camped inside Slovan’s half with relentless pressure in the final third.

The prices here tell the story of what the bookmakers are expecting to happen better than I ever could: Bayern Munich are at 1.12 to score three goals. To win the game, they’re 1.01.

Assuming the game will be played in that half, the likely outcome is that there will be goals, Bayern will win, and people will score. Along with that, there should be a growing corner count.

They’ve played one game in this UCL edition against what you’d describe as a minnow of the competition in Dinamo Zagreb. That game ended 9-2; 29 shots to four and 12 corners to nil. They won the first half 3-0 and recorded eight corners to nil in the opening 45 minutes.

I see this developing similarly. Considering the game state and Bayern needing goals and a slice of luck – it should see them on top throughout, especially in the opening stages as they aim to assert control.

• Selection: Bayern Win FH & O3.5 FH Bayern Corners (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Champions League Acca Tips and Predictions Odds via bet365 as at 12:00, January 27th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

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