Champions League Best Bets and Predictions: The Last 16 Is Here

The Champions League Round of 16 has arrived filled with seismic clashes and the possibility of big upsets across the eight fixtures. Liverpool have been rewarded with PSG for winning the league phase, a very tricky task for the high-flying Reds. They’ll need their talisman to be on song if they want anything from the game.

Injury-ravaged Arsenal are toothless but should fancy themselves to overcome Dutch opposition across two legs, with the possibility of one of the Madrid clubs in the next round. The two best teams in Germany are pitted against each other, both with very real aspirations of lifting the cup, considering they are on the supposed easier side of the draw. 

Josh Ingram breaks down three Champions League games and picks out his best bets.

• PSG vs Liverpool: Mo Salah Anytime Goalscorer
• PSV vs Arsenal: BTTS-No
• Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen: Bayer Leverkusen +0.75 Asian Handicap

Acca odds: 10.08

PSG vs Liverpool: The Egyptian King to show his class

France, Champions League, Wednesday,  March 5th, 20:00 (UK)

One way to get your hands on a Ballon d’Or is quite often by winning the Champions League and/or international competition, and due to it being a free year regarding international tournaments, Salah will be eyeing the Champions League. The Egyptian couldn’t be in better shape for it. Due to Liverpool being firmly in the driving seat in the Premier League, the large points gap has meant that BETSiE has given them a 99% chance of winning the League. It could get to the point where they can solely focus on their European commitments, especially with Southampton in between this two-legged tie. 

Salah’s numbers are frightening. His level of productivity is going up as he ages, which is a testament to his professionalism. The Egyptian King has 52 goals and assists to his name already this season from 39 games. He has put the ball in the back of the net on three occasions in Europe in the seven games he has featured. 

PSG are also at the top of their respective division, and they have not lost a game domestically after 24 Ligue 1 games. The last defeat they suffered was away at Bayern when Ousmane Dembele was sent off, losing 1-0. They have struggled in the Champions League, with four wins from eight in the group stage. In the ten Champions League games they have played in, they have conceded at least once on six occasions.

Mo Salah has broken so many records this season it’s hard to keep up with them all. In the Champions League proper, he has scored 47 in 86 games. To be able to boast a strike rate of 0.55 shows the level of finisher he is. Analysing his goal-per-game average, he should score at least once across both games. Playing away from home doesn’t faze a player of Salah’s calibre. 

Salah has broken the Premier League record for most goal contributions away from home in a single campaign with 27 and counting, beating Andy Cole’s record of 21 from the 1993/94 season. The Parc de Princes will be another opportunity to show his class, and it would be very on-brand if he left his mark all over this first leg.

• Selection: Mo Salah Anytime Goalscorer (TRACKED BET) 
• Best Odds: 2.75
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

PSV vs Arsenal: Someone to blank

Netherlands, Champions League, Tuesday,  March 4th, 20:00 (UK)

The best way to approach Arsenal games currently, with their injury crisis in forward areas, is to opt for BTTS-no or an under goal line. I’ve decided on BTTS-no due to the nature of the game, an away leg in the Champions League is never easy. Clinching a 0-0 away from home in the first leg is a great result. Losing 1-0 is not the end of the world if you can’t have to head home in defeat. Arsenal will fancy themselves to win the tie at the Emirates regardless of the result here, as long as it’s not a drubbing, which is unlikely with the levels their defence has been operating at all season. 

The Mikel Merino experiment was fun away at relegation-threatened Leicester as a one-off, but that fun ended against West Ham and Nottingham Forest. One point from six has effectively ended their title challenge, with the Champions League being the only competition for them to win now. The Gunners need to control the tie and not allow PSV too many big chances, as they don’t have the firepower to score three or four goals over two legs. Nuno Espirito Santo commented on Arsenal’s lack of presence up top after their 0-0 saying: “As Arsenal doesn’t have a striker, so Merino is playing in that position, there’s no need for an extra body [in defence]. So the overload will be in the midfield, so if [Merino] drops, it’s about containing the midfield.”  Teams will know how to stop this, and they’ll pack the midfield. Arsenal then don’t have an option at the top end of the pitch, so the middle of the park is very congested.

Looking back to previous first legs in the Champions League Round of 16, last season in 2023/24, BTTS No won in five of the eight first leg fixtures, with 14 goals across the eight games – a 1.75 per90 average. In 2022/23, 7 of 8 matches went under 2.5 goals, and 6/8 were BTTS – No. The one outlier was Real Madrid’s 5-2 win at Anfield. The campaign before that, in 2021/22: 6/8 went under 2.5 goals, and 4/8 ticked off BTTS No. 

• Selection:  BTTS-NO (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.95
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 7.5/10

Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen: Alonso to outsmart Kompany

Germany , Champions League, Wednesday, March 5th, 20:00 (UK)

The Champions League draw has produced a mouthwatering battle between the current German champions and the former perennial German champions. All their games this season and last term have been fascinating battles. 

Since taking over as Leverkusen’s manager, Xabi Alonso has remained unbeaten in six meetings (3W/3D) against Bayern Munich; Alonso’s tactical nous has limited Bayern in these matchups. In that period, Bayern scored an average of just 0.67 goals per game and conceded 1.50. The +0.75 Asian Handicap being such a palatable price was a surprise as it’s hard to see how either side runs away with it, so to have the half-loss if Leverkusen loses by one in a tight affair is more than appealing. 

Goals have not been prevalent in the last three encounters, with under 2.5 goals landing all three, the most recent being a 0-0 where Bayern only had two shots all game for a total of 0.05xG and the first one coming in the 73rd minute. So, having the draw on side is shrewd, especially with Leverkusen keen to get the tie back to the BayArena with it still in the balance.

Bayer Leverkusen has only lost one game in the Bundesliga all season, the same as Bayern. They have drawn four more games, so the eight-point gap with ten games left looks insurmountable. This is Leverkusen’s chance to harness some bragging rights back in their favour. 

• Selection: Bayer Leverkusen +0.75 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET) & Bayer Leverkusen to Qualify for the next round (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.88 & 2.37
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10 & 10/10

Champions League Acca Tips and Predictions Odds via bet365 as at 14:00,  March 3rd, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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