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Horse Racing Cards and Booking Tips, Predictions, and Best Bets: Player Cards, Booking Points and Referee Data
It was another successful week for The Cards Column with a couple of winners at 1.80 and 1.86 as the Burton and Spurs obliged.
Now comes another pesky international break, the final one until March, meaning we’ve only got two League One games and a handful of League Two matches to delve into this weekend at bettingexpert. Rather than the usual three picks, it’s just two this week, delivered by our expert Matt Kirby.
- Team Bookings and Referee Data
- Blackpool vs Shrewsbury: Under 60 booking points & Shrewsbury most booking points
- Notts County vs Bradford: Andy Cook To Be Booked
Odds via bet365 & Sky Bet as of 21:00, November 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
The Data from League One and League Two: Team Bookings and Referee Data
There are just 11 games across the third and fourth tiers this weekend. Tom Reeves is the man to get things underway when he oversees the televised clash between Notts County and Bradford.
Select Group 2 official Andy Davies takes charge of League Two leaders Stockport. They host Colchester. Meanwhile, there’s a return to action for Lee Swabey, who’s averaging 6.7 cards per 90 after taking charge of seven games this season.
Blackpool vs Shrewsbury: Don’t tame the Shrews
England, League One, Saturday, November 18th 15:00 (UK)
At the time of writing, Sky Bet have only released card markets for the two League One games, so that’s where I’m having to target my first pick.
It comes at Bloomfield Road where Matt Taylor’s Shrewsbury are the visitors to Blackpool. A win for the visitors would move them one point behind the Tangerines, while three points for the hosts would put them level on points with Barnsley in the final play-off place.
However, Shrewsbury have only won once on their travels. That came in August, and coincidentally, Ben Speedie was the referee; he’s in charge of this one.
Combine two markets to get a 2.00 punt using the Sky Bet bet builder tool. Despite 75% of Speedie’s eight league middles seeing 40+ booking points, he’s only averaging 4.5 cards per game this season.
The referee has only shown 60+ booking points in one of his eight middles, so 88% of his games have seen unders. That’s a solid enough angle to piece a bet around.
And with Blackpool picking up just 12 yellows in nine home games (1.3 per 90) and Shrewsbury averaging 2.3 cards per away match, then we might not see too many cards. So, the first leg is under 60 booking points. Remember, a yellow is 10, a straight red is 25 and a second bookable offence is 35.
The second part of the bet is Shrewsbury receiving most booking points. As shown by those respective home/away averages above, the visitors should see at least one more card than their hosts.
In six of their eight away games, Taylor’s men have collected 25+ booking points. In contrast, Neil Critchley’s Blackpool have seen either zero or one card in six of their nine matches at Bloomfield Road. So, once again highlighting the likelihood of more Shrewsbury booking points.
Going back to Speedie, he cautioned three Shrewsbury players when he took charge of their win at Fleetwood. And I’d imagine a similar number of away cards once more, especially if they take the lead.
- Selection: Under 60 match booking points & Shrewsbury most booking points
- Best Odds: 2.00
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 10/10
Andy Cook To Be Booked: Ready, steady…Cook
England, League Two, Saturday, November 18th 12:30 (UK)
There’s just one televised game this weekend, meaning limited options for this week’s player pick.
It sees fifth-place Notts County welcome struggling Bradford to Meadow Lane. Graham Alexander is searching for his maiden Bantams win, after his first game in charge ended in a 2-1 defeat at home to Barrow.
Now, what we have is two of the top-five sides for cards in the division facing off. Notts County have received 44 yellows and two reds, while Bradford aren’t far behind on 39 yellows and one red.
Both sides rank highly in the home/away charts, with County averaging 2.50 cards in games in front of their home fans. Bradford rank joint-second in the away table at 2.8 per 90.
When piecing this puzzle together, you have to factor in the foul counts. Bradford are joint-second for fouls in away games (12.6), which makes me feel there’ll be a few visiting players entering the referee’s notebook.
Jamie Walker is the obvious player, with five cautions already to his name this season. He’s 2.88 on Bet365, meaning the price is quite tight, although his 2.1 fouls per game are the most within the Bradford ranks.
I like to look for a price with more meat on the bones. So, that leads me to striker Andy Cook.
He’s been booked in Bradford’s last two matches and has been averaging 2.2 fouls per game across his last five appearances, committing 2, 2, 1, 4 & 2 fouls. Cook has put himself around lately, so he could ruffle a few feathers among the County backline.
Tom Reeves is the man in charge, and he’s quite up-and-down when it comes to issuing cards. He ranks quite lowly among his colleagues, averaging just 3.6 cards per game. That said, his three league middles last month saw him dish out 13 yellows and one red, so he can show them when he needs to.
Cook’s recent card collection and foul counts mean he could be the one to catch Reeves’ eye before showing him the card. Those who want a bigger price could look to a Cook goal/card double at 10.50 with Bet365.
NOVEMBER 13-19 IS SAFER GAMBLING WEEK 2023
November 13-19 marks an important date in the calendar. Safer Gambling Week is a significant industry-wide event that aims to shed more light on responsible betting. For more information and advice, head to the bettingexpert Safer Gambling hub or our brief explainer below.
