Burnley vs Luton Prediction: Tips and Best Bets Preview

It’s a Burnley vs Luton prediction and tips betting preview next on the agenda for Tom Winch here at bettingexpert as we tackle the Friday Night Premier League game at Turf Moor. Both sides will be desperate to come up trumps against their fellow recently-promoted foes. The home side are odds-on favourites, whilst Luton are as big as 4.00 in places.

It feels like this is a six-pointer. The loser, if there is to be one, could fall even further adrift. The pressure is certainly on the players, coaches, and everyone involved. Let’s hope for an entertaining affair to kickstart the weekend.

Burnley vs Luton Prediction and Tips Preview

1. Burnley vs Luton Tip 1: Elijah Adebayo Over 0.5 Shots On Target
2. Burnley vs Luton Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals
3. Burnley vs Luton Tip 3: Over 25.5 Match Shots

In this article:

• Burnley vs Luton Team News
• The Predicted League Table
• Burnley vs Luton Stats Preview
• How to watch Burnley vs Luton
• Safer Gambling

Burnley vs Luton Tip 1: A Man On Fine Form

England, Premier League, Friday, January 12th, 19:45 (UK)

Elijah Adebayo has scored five times in the Premier League this season. No Luton player has scored more than the 26-year-old. All five of those goals have arrived in his last 13 league appearances; the former Walsall man has started just nine games this term, which includes each of the previous five.

I expect Elijah to start once again here. He’s performed well in recent weeks and has scored against Arsenal, Man City and Chelsea in clashes they narrowly lost. When Luton hosted Burnley in early October, Adebayo came off the bench and scored shortly after.

Luton’s leading scorer has registered 18 shots in the Premier League this season across 821 minutes, averaging an attempt every 45 minutes of action. Seven of those attempts have come on target, with the proposed selection winning in each of his previous five starts.

It’s impressive to see that this bet has landed against some of the best sides in the division over the last month. Adebayo will be full of confidence heading here and will be fully aware that this Burnley side will allow him chances. The proposed selection is appealing, given the price on offer.

• Burnley vs Luton Tip 1: Elijah Adebayo Over 0.5 Shots On Target (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Burnley vs Luton Tip 2: No Drab Affair Here

Many football fans will look at this clash and expect a drab affair; however, I think the opposite. This match certainly has the makings of an entertaining 90 minutes. The reverse fixture saw late drama, and I’m sure both managers will be desperate to leave Turf Moor with maximum points.

It’s clear that both sides struggle to keep clean sheets. Burnley have been extremely poor at home. They’ve won just a single game here and have lost their other nine. Kompany’s men have conceded 24 times in ten home games, conceding twice or more on eight separate occasions.

Rob Edwards’ side have conceded in every away day. That’s 20 in total across their nine away trips. Luton have only failed to score against Chelsea, Fulham and Man United away from Kenilworth Road and have scored in each of their seven previous matches in the topflight.

Only Sheffield United have conceded more goals than these two; they’ll allow one another chances, given they’ve kept a combined three clean sheets in 39 matches. Thirty-four goals have been scored in Burnley’s ten home games, whilst 30 have arrived in Luton’s nine away days.

• Burnley vs Luton Tip 2: Over 2.5 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Burnley vs Luton Tip 3: Shooooooot!

Luton’s away days often see plenty of shots, especially when they play sides who are in and around where Rob Edwards’ side are in the table.

• Sheffield United v Luton (33)
• Brentford v Luton (34)
• Forest v Luton (32)
• Everton v Luton (32)

Games against Brighton and Chelsea also saw upwards of 30 shots. The reverse fixture at Kenilworth Road saw 32 shots back in October.

The pressure is on Burnley here. They’re the home side, and Kompany’s men have the worst home record in the division, so they’ll be wanting to put things right on Friday night. I expect them to start fast and aim to take an early lead, which should open the game up.

Burnley have relatively strong shot numbers when playing here. They had 14 against Everton, 19 came against Sheffield United, 17 when they hosted Palace and 16 early in the season when Spurs visited.

I expect Burnley to have plenty of goal attempts. They can’t be trusted defensively and won’t want to sit on a one-goal lead. They’ve only failed to hit double-digit shot numbers against City, Villa and Liverpool when playing here. Those three lead the way in the Premier League table.

Neither side will want to leave here empty-handed, so I’m confident that at some point, one side will have to pile on the pressure; the shot statistics are strong, and with two sides in need of a result, this game could be one for entertainment.

• Burnley vs Luton Tip 3: Over 25.5 Match Shots (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 10/10

Burnley vs Luton Prediction odds via bet365 as at 09:00, January 10th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Burnley vs Luton Team News Preview: No shocks here

There’s not a whole lot to report in terms of absentees.

Burnley will be without Manuel Benson. His return date is unknown. The Belgian has played just four matches this season. Luca Koleosho will miss this clash with a knee injury – he should be back very soon.

Reece Burke has been sidelined since October. He should return to the squad this month after his lengthy absence. Tom Lockyer is still recovering after he suffered a cardiac arrest and won’t be playing a part here.

Zeki Amdouni and Lyle Foster will lead the line for the hosts, whilst Elijah Adebayo should get the nod from Rob Edwards after his impressive run of form.

The Predicted Premier League Table

BETSiE, our in-house data expert, predicts that this will be an 18th vs 19th clash come the end of the season. Unfortunately for Burnley and Luton, it’s to the Championship you go, according to our predictive model.

Burnley, in 18th, finishes a whole ten points off a Nottingham Forest side somewhat shell shocked from a poor start to the season and Cooper’s sacking.

If the bottom three go down as BETSiE projects them to, it’ll be the first time in Premier League history that the three promoted teams are relegated in the following season.

Burnley vs Luton OPTA Stats Preview: Goals galore in promoted encounters

• Burnley are unbeaten in their last seven league games against Luton (W4 D3), and are looking to complete their first league double over them since the 1994-95 second tier campaign.
• There have been three Premier League games between the promoted sides (Burnley, Luton, Sheffield United) this season, which have seen a combined 13 goals. The average of 4.3 goals-per-game is the highest in matches between promoted clubs in a Premier League season.
• After their 3-2 win at Sheffield United on Boxing Day, Luton are looking to pick up back-to-back top-flight away victories for the first time since December 1987 under Ray Harford.
• No side has scored more Premier League goals from outside the box this season than Burnley (7), with this making up 35% of their total this season, the highest ratio in the competition. Indeed, the Clarets have the lowest shot conversion rate inside the box in the Premier League this season (10.1% – 13/129) but the highest from outside the area (8.8% – 7/80).

How To Watch

• Burnley vs Luton, Premier League.
• Date and Time: Friday, January 12th, 19:45 (UK)
• How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): TNT Sports

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.