Bologna vs Monza Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Saturday night in Serie A is all about Thiago Motta’s side’s challenge to qualify for next season’s Champions League and our Italian football expert, Daniele Fisichella, has looked into Bologna vs Monza prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Prediction: Bologna 2-1 Monza

Despite their scoreless draw against Frosinone the Felsinei have maintained a good lead over Roma, currently in fifth position, whereas back-to-back defeats have all but ended Monza’s hopes to play in Europe in 2024/2025.

• Bologna vs Monza Tip 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes
• Bologna vs Monza Tip 2: Monza Asian Handicap +1
• Bologna vs Monza Tip 3: Over 2.5 Goals

Bologna vs Monza Prediction 1: gap has widened since last year

Italy, Serie A, Saturday, April 13th, 19:45 (UK)

Bologna and Monza ended the 2022/2023 campaign only two points apart, with the hosts finishing mid-table with 54 points, four less than what they’ve already achieved in the current campaign. 

Monza’s second spell in the top flight has been positive (they’ve never been in danger of going down) but the visitors would need ten more points in the remaining seven games (more than what they’ve averaged so far) to match last year’s tally. 

This Saturday, the hosts have got much more at stake as with tricky away games at Roma, Torino and Napoli coming up, it’s crucial they get six points from the next two home fixtures (Bologna will host Udinese on 28 April). 

Thiago Motta’s side record at the ‘Renato Dall’Ara’ has been excellent. They’ve only lost twice (against AC Milan and Inter) and failed to score only on three occasions (against the Milanese sides and Napoli). 

In front of their crowd Bologna have been excellent at controlling games and hold the record (with Torino and Inter) for most home clean sheets (10). 

But being this a must win game for Bologna they’ll probably take a few more risks than usual and might concede against a side, Monza, that has only failed to score once (in the 1-0 defeat at Torino) in their last seven games. 

• Bologna vs Monza Prediction 1: Both Teams To Score – Yes (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

Bologna vs Monza Prediction 2: Is the Felsinei defence so solid?

The hosts’ defensive numbers have been really good as they’ve got Italy’s third-best defence, but the underlying data suggest Bologna might have slightly overachieved, defensively, at home.

In fact Bologna have got the second-highest xGA (expected goals against) differential at home, +6.56 (AC Milan has +8.22), meaning their backline is often exposed. 

For example, goalkeeper Federico Ravaglia had to make a couple of smart saves to deny bottom-of-the-table Salernitana a goal in Bologna’s most recent home win (3-0 on Easter Monday). 

On the road, the Brianzoli have suffered three heavy defeats (3-0 against Atalanta, AC Milan and Empoli), but otherwise, they hold a respectable record with only two losses in the last seven. 

However, it is hard to imagine that a defence that has kept only four away clean sheets and whose xGA (expected goals against) differential on the road is +4.73 (fourth highest value in Serie A) can keep such a fine team like Bologna at bay.

• Bologna vs Monza Prediction 2: Monza Asian Handicap +1 (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

Bologna vs Monza Prediction 3: Brianzoli are known as giant-killers

Only two players (Orsolini and Zirkzee – ten goals apiece) are in double figures for both sides, but Monza have scored with more men in Serie A (13 vs 12) than the hosts. 

At home, Bologna has the league’s fourth-best attack and has scored at least twice in ten games.

Only four out of 16 Bologna’s home games have ended with both teams on the scoresheet, and the visitors have been involved in 10 ‘Both Teams To Score – No’ matches away from home.

But considering these two sides are among the ones that like to play more on the front foot in Serie A (Bologna are second for ball possession and Monza sixth) the game could turn out to be open and entertaining. 

Monza only need five more points to be saved and, since their debut season in Serie A last year, they’ve developed a habit of picking up results against top sides. 

In fact, since January 2023, Raffaele Palladino’s men have beaten Juventus, Inter and Bologna all on the road, as well as Fiorentina, Napoli and more recently, AC Milan, at the ‘Stadio Brianteo’.

• Bologna vs Monza Prediction 3: Over 2.5 Goals  (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.00
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 3/10

Bologna vs Monza Prediction odds via bet365 as at 10:50, April 9th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Bologna vs Monza Team News and Possible Lineups: visitors welcome back European champion

Orsolini, Ferguson and Urbanski will play right behind Zirkzee. Ndoye, who hit the bar against Frosinone, will start from the bench. Freuler and Fabbian will be the two playmakers, with Posch, Lucumì, Calafiori and Kristiansen protecting Skorupski’s goal. Saelemaekers is suspended, and Odgaard is injured.

In the visitors’ camp, Pessina returns from suspension; Bondo is in contention with Gagliardini to start alongside the Euro 2021 winner. 

It is unlikely Dany Mota will recover from his injury. Djuric, who scored his first Monza goal last weekend, will lead the attack. Center-back Caldirola is suspended. Pablo Marí and Izzo will lead the backline, with Andrea Carboni slotting at left-back. 

Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; Posch, Lucumì, Calafiori, Kristiansen; Freuler, Fabbian; Orsolini, Ferguson, Urbanski; Zirkzee.

Monza possible starting lineup:
Di Gregorio; Birindelli, Marì, Izzo, A. Carboni; Pessina, Gagliardini; V. Carboni, Colpani, Maldini; Djuric.

The Predicted Bologna vs Monza Serie A Standings by BETSiE

Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the Serie A standings ahead of the Bologna vs Monza, currently 4th vs 11th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.

For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.

Bologna vs Monza Standings Prediction

Match Stats: Bologna are about to make history

• The visitors are unbeaten in the last two games against Bologna, having won at the “Renato Dall’Ara” 1-0 in February 2023.
• Bologna have kept 14 clean sheets this season, only in 1963/1964 (when they won the Scudetto) they had a better defensive record (16 clean sheets).
• The hosts have only drawn two Serie A games since January 2024. 
• Only two of the last seven Monza’s away games have ended with both teams on the scoresheet
• Monza goalkeepers have been the busiest in Serie A this season, with 113 saves made.

Bologna Fixtures: a tricky run-in with top sides

• Vs Roma (A)
• Vs Udinese (H)
• Vs Torino (A)
• Vs Napoli (A)
• Vs Juventus (H)

Monza Fixtures: something at stake in all matches

• Vs Atalanta (H)
• Vs Lecce (A)
• Vs Lazio (H)
• Vs Fiorentina (A)
• Vs Frosinone (H)

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