Betting Against The Bottom Three: The Foxes In The Crosshairs

Last season (2023/24) was the first time since 1998, and the second time ever, that the three newly-promoted clubs were all relegated from the Premier League back down to the Championship at the first time of asking.

BETSiE projects that Leicester (95.6%), Ipswich (96.7%) and Southampton (100%) will all be relegated once again, giving the Saints no chance whatsoever of turning their grim campaign around.

Odds courtesy of bet365. Correct at time of publishing and subject to change.

Leicester and Saints’ Troubles  

After 26 matches played, Southampton currently possesses the same points (9) and goal difference (-42) as Derby County’s record-breaking season in 2007/08. The 61 goals conceded in the Premier League thus far signal that they are on course to concede 89 strikes – only one team has conceded more goals than that in a Premier League season (1992/93>)after 38 matches. That was Sheffield United (104) in 2023/24, the one team to ship over a century of goals in just 38 fixtures.

Ruud van Nistelrooy’s Leicester City also find themselves in a spot of bother. It’s now six consecutive home fixtures where the Foxes have slumped to defeat without scoring a goal. The Dutchman has overseen ten losses in the last eleven outings.

In the Premier League, Leicester (17) boasts eight more points than Southampton (9). Yet, their stories share similar red flags. The recruitment in the summer wasn’t good enough and didn’t harness the required talent to execute a successful stay in the division. Managers have been and gone. In Leicester, a tale of failed targets and rushed-through deals is encapsulated by their loan move for Crystal Palace’s Odsonne Edouard to supply their lacking front line with much-needed firepower.

Instead, Edouard has made four Premier League appearances (12, 16, 18, and eight minutes) from the subs bench, barely breaking a sweat, whilst 38-year-old Jamie Vardy leads the line. The 24.2xG from 26 games isn’t enough for Vardy to feast on and lead his side on a journey above the dreaded dotted line. And at the other end, the 50.39xGA is only ‘beaten’ by two clubs. Who? You guessed it. 

Tractor Boys As Slow As Expected  

Ipswich Town have stumped up the smallest xG total in the Premier League after 26 matches. The Tractor Boys’ case is a little different to Southampton and Leicester. Yes, they’re right down there with the aforementioned two, but we should remind ourselves that this is a club riding the wave of back-to-back promotions. Ipswich Town were fighting it out with Plymouth Argyle and Sheffield Wednesday in a hunt for promotion just two years ago in League One.

In an ideal world, in terms of steadily progressing up the pyramid, Town would have missed out on the playoffs last year, regrouped, invested, and then put together an assault on the upper echelons of the Championship. So outstanding was their achievement that it came as a shock to many, a surprise that no amount of forward planning in the transfer window could have adequately covered the step up from League One to the Premier League.

Southampton and Leicester can’t be tarnished with the same brush as Ipswich. However, the question we might need to start asking ourselves is, is the jump from the Championship to the Premier League simply too vast? There’s an argument that each and every promoted club should slide back down to the Championship now, given the monstrous wealth residing within Premier League clubs. 

It’s difficult to see a scenario where at least two promoted clubs next season don’t fall straight back down. And it would surprise absolutely nobody for all three to suffer the same fate as Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton Town last season and what BETSiE projects will happen to Ipswich, Leicester and Southampton in 2024/25.

Betting On The Bottom Three: Leicester In The Spotlight

The newly-promoted analysis surrounding Premier League clubs will have to wait for another day. What I’m most interested in is how we can use the current predicament of the bottom three to our advantage.

There’s an upcoming bustling midweek schedule in the top flight, the FA Cup fifth round, and plenty of Premier League games priced on bet365 for us to peruse.

The one standout, at the current prices, is West Ham at home to Leicester on Thursday. This is a Hammers outfit I didn’t see me backing in a million years just a few short weeks ago. But here we are – that’s what Leicester will do to you.

The Foxes just shipped four goals at home to Brentford. West Ham travelled to Arsenal, who had the shortest average odds (1.28) on MD26 for a Premier League win.

A 44th-minute Jarrod Bowen was enough for West Ham. The 0-1 victory also proved why BETSiE’s best bet of the whole Premier League slate was, very shrewdly, West Ham +1.5AH.

For the visitors, only 3/10 recent matches have seen Leicester nudge above the 1.0xG mark: 0.80xG, 0.34xG, 1.30xG, 0.41xG, 1.70xG, 0.47xG, 1.56xG, 0.33xG, 0.22xG & 0.51xG. Interestingly, the recent head-to-head was Ruud’s first Leicester game in charge, which ended in a 3-1 win. However, the Hammers, who were still under Lopetegui’s stewardship, recorded 31 shots and 3.10xG.

The hosts will be confident of creating regular goalscoring chances on Thursday night, an area the visitors have been struggling with since the change in management. Do that, find the scoresheet twice against a ropey-looking partnership made up of Wout Faes/Jannik Vestegaard/Caleb Okoli/Connor Coady, and Leicester might not get anywhere near the Hammers.

Safer Gambling

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