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Horse Racing BETSiE Predicts....the 2022 World Cup: Quarter Finals Best Bets
While the opening two rounds of the group stage returned a profit, it’s been tough work since then, with just one winner from seven selections, with one and a half pushes keeping us from a complete disaster.
We move on then to the quarter finals. Where are we set to bounce back as the tournament is reduced to just eight nations? Let’s take a look.
In this article:
- World Cup Quarter Final Best Bets
- World Cup Quarter Final: 1X2 Projections
- World Cup Quarter Final: Asian handicap Projections
- World Cup Quarter Final: Goal Total Projections
- World Cup Quarter Final: Both Teams to Score Projections
BETSiE’s World Cup 2022 Quarter Final Best Bets
So taking a look at the numbers, I’ve gone for two best bets for the World Cup quarter finals:
- Argentina -0.25 (AH) vs Netherlands @ odds 1.95
- Croatia +1.5 (AH) vs Brazil @ odds 1.87
Best odds as at 2pm December 8th 2022. Odds may now differ.
BETSiE’s World Cup Best Bets Results….
- WON: Ecuador -0.25 goals (AH) vs Qatar @ odds 2.09
- LOST: Croatia to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.10
- PUSH: Belgium -1 goal (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.90
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Cameroon +0.75 goals (AH) vs Switzerland @ odds 1.94
- WON England vs Iran Over 2.25 goals @ odds 2.06
- LOST: Qatar +0.75 goals (AH) vs Senegal @ odds 2.07
- LOST: Netherlands -0.75 goals (AH) vs Ecuador @ odds 2.03
- WON: Australia +0.25 goals (AH) vs Tunisia @ odds 2.10
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Denmark +0.75 goals (AH) vs France @ odds 1.92
- WON: Costa Rica +1.25 goals (AH) vs Japan @ odds 1.87
- WON: Croatia -0.25 goals (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.85
- LOSS: Belgium to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.05
- WON: Spain vs Germany, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 2.23
- LOST: Canada +0.25 goals (AH) vs Morocco @ odds 2.08
- PUSH: Belgium +0 goals (AH) vs Croatia @ odds 1.96
- HALF LOST/PUSH: Mexico vs Saudi Arabia, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 1.97
- LOST: Costa Rica vs Germany, Under 3.5 goals @ odds 2.07
- WON: Australia +1.75 goals (AH) vs Argentina @ odds 1.91
- LOST: Poland +1.5 goals (AH) vs France @ odds 1.96
- LOST: South Korea +1.5 goals (AH) vs Brazil @ odds 1.96
So through the end of the Round of 16, we are:
- 7 wins, 9.5 losses, 3.5 pushes
- Profit of -2.39 units
- ROI of -11.9%.
World Cup 2022 Quarter Final: 1X2 Projections
Below are the 1X2 probabilities for the four quarter final matches:
| Team A | Team B | Team A % | Draw % | Team B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Argentina | 23.90% | 26.90% | 49.20% |
| Croatia | Brazil | 13.20% | 20.70% | 66.10% |
| England | France | 36.00% | 27.20% | 36.80% |
| Morocco | Portugal | 16.10% | 24.70% | 59.10% |
There are three nations offering some value in the 1X2 market for the World Cup quarter final matches. These are:
- Argentina (vs Netherlands)
- Croatia (vs Brazil)
- England (vs France)
There is no value for either team in the Portugal vs Morocco quarter final.
So let’s then take a look at the Asian handicap markets and see if any of the three value teams in the 1X2 market are offering any value there also.
World Cup 2022 Quarter Final: Asian Handicap Projections
Below are the Asian handicap probabilities for each quarter final match.
| Team A | Team B | Team A Ah | Team B Ah | Team A % | Team B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Argentina | 0.25 | -0.25 | 41.70% | 58.30% |
| Croatia | Brazil | 1.25 | -1.25 | 52.40% | 47.60% |
| England | France | 0.25 | -0.25 | 56.30% | 43.70% |
| Morocco | Portugal | 0.75 | -0.75 | 48.40% | 51.60% |
There is once again no value for either nation in the Morocco vs Portugal quarter final and only slight value for England at +0.25 goals in their quarter final with France.
We do see some decent value for both Argentina and Croatia, so we’ll add:
- Argentina -0.25 goals (vs Netherlands)
- Croatia +1.25 goals (vs Brazil)
Let’s now turn to goal totals.
World Cup 2022 Quarter Final: Goal Total Projections
So which matches provide some value in the quarter final goal totals market?
| Team A | Team B | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Argentina | 2 | 56.00% | 44.00% |
| Croatia | Brazil | 2.75 | 43.00% | 57.00% |
| England | France | 2.5 | 44.80% | 55.20% |
| Morocco | Portugal | 2.25 | 47.90% | 52.10% |
While each match offers some value in the goal totals market, there is not a great deal to be had. The best of the four matches is taking the Under 2.75 goals in the Croatia vs Brazil match.
Let’s see if there is any value for this match in the BTTS – No market.
World Cup 2022 Quarter Final: Both Teams To Score Projections
Below are the probabilities for both teams to score yes and no for the World Cup quarter finals.
| Team A | Team B | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | Argentina | 45.20% | 54.80% |
| Croatia | Brazil | 44.40% | 55.60% |
| England | France | 50.30% | 49.70% |
| Morocco | Portugal | 40.20% | 59.80% |
There’s no value for either the Netherlands vs Argentina or Croatia vs Brazil match in the BTTS market.
There is some decent value for BTTS – No, in the Portugal vs Morocco match and slight value for BTTS – No in the England vs France match.
All up, we’ll be taking no selections in the goal totals market in the World Cup quarter finals.
So now it gets serious. We’re heading into the third round of the knockout stage and we have five best bets.
Enjoy your wagering as the group stage concludes.
As always, gamble responsibly.
