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Horse Racing BETSiE Predicts....The 2022 World Cup: Round 3 Best Bets
We’re two rounds down and looking good so far this World Cup. We had eight best bets through round two of the group stage, a thanks to a 1-1 result in the Spain vs Germany match, we’re head with one more round of the group stage to come.
BETSiE’s World Cup Best Bets Results….
- WON: Ecuador -0.25 goals (AH) vs Qatar @ odds 2.09
- LOST: Croatia to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.10
- PUSH: Belgium -1 goal (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.90
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Cameroon +0.75 goals (AH) vs Switzerland @ odds 1.94
- WON England vs Iran Over 2.25 goals @ odds 2.06
- LOST: Qatar +0.75 goals (AH) vs Senegal @ odds 2.07
- LOST: Netherlands -0.75 goals (AH) vs Ecuador @ odds 2.03
- WON: Australia +0.25 goals (AH) vs Tunisia @ odds 2.10
- HALF LOSS/PUSH: Denmark +0.75 goals (AH) vs France @ odds 1.92
- WON: Costa Rica +1.25 goals (AH) vs Japan @ odds 1.87
- WON: Croatia -0.25 goals (AH) vs Canada @ odds 1.85
- LOSS: Belgium to win vs Morocco @ odds 2.05
- WON: Spain vs Germany, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 2.23
So through the open two rounds of the groups stage, we are:
- 6 wins, 5 losses, 2 pushes
- Profit of +1.20 units
- ROI of +9.2%.
Let’s then take a look at where the value is heading into the final round of the group stage.
In this article:
- World Cup Round 3 Best Bets
- World Cup Round 3: 1X2 Projections
- World Cup Round 3: Asian handicap Projections
- World Cup Round 3: Goal Total Projections
- World Cup Round 3: Both Teams to Score Projections
BETSiE’s World Cup 2022 Round 3 Best Bets
Running through the numbers, I’ve taken four selections for the final round of the 2022 World Cup group stage:
- Canada +0.25 goals (AH) vs Morocco @ odds 2.08
- Belgium +0 goals (AH) vs Croatia @ odds 1.96
- Mexico vs Saudi Arabia, Under 2.75 goals @ odds 1.97
- Costa Rica vs Germany, Under 3.5 goals @ odds 2.07
Best odds as at 12am November 29th 2022. Odds may now differ.
World Cup 2022 Round 3: 1X2 Projections
Below are the 1X2 probabilities for the 16 matches of the third round of the group stage.
| Team A | Team B | TEaM A % | Draw % | TEAM B % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | Senegal | 37.80% | 30.40% | 31.80% |
| Netherlands | Qatar | 77.60% | 14.60% | 7.80% |
| Iran | USA | 26.20% | 27.60% | 46.20% |
| England | Wales | 63.10% | 22.60% | 14.30% |
| Australia | Denmark | 13.20% | 21.00% | 65.90% |
| France | Tunisia | 74.90% | 17.00% | 8.10% |
| Argentina | Poland | 63.20% | 22.80% | 14.00% |
| Mexico | Saudi Arabia | 57.60% | 24.40% | 18.00% |
| Canada | Morocco | 32.00% | 27.90% | 40.10% |
| Belgium | Croatia | 40.60% | 26.80% | 32.60% |
| Costa Rica | Germany | 3.90% | 11.00% | 85.10% |
| Japan | Spain | 11.10% | 18.20% | 70.70% |
| Ghana | Uruguay | 18.30% | 24.90% | 56.80% |
| South Korea | Portugal | 15.10% | 22.00% | 62.90% |
| Brazil | Cameroon | 81.50% | 13.20% | 5.40% |
| Serbia | Switzerland | 34.30% | 27.20% | 38.50% |
Not a great deal of genuine value to be had here looking ahead to the third round of the group stage. With a number of matches involving nations with compromised motivation (France for example), here are the nations I see some value with:
- Qatar (vs Netherlands)
- Iran (vs USA)
- Wales (vs England)
- Canada (vs Morocco)
- Belgium (vs Croatia)
- Switzerland (vs Serbia)
But before we lock in the best bets, let’s see if we can identify any value with these six nations in the Asian handicap market.
World Cup 2022 Round 3: Asian Handicap Projections
Below are the Asian handicap probabilities for each third round match of the group stage.
| Team A | Team B | Team A Ah | Team B Ah | Team A Ah% | Team B Ah% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | Senegal | -0.25 | 0.25 | 46.00% | 54.00% |
| Netherlands | Qatar | -2 | 2 | 43.10% | 56.90% |
| Iran | USA | 0.5 | -0.5 | 53.80% | 46.20% |
| England | Wales | -1.25 | 1.25 | 43.40% | 56.60% |
| Australia | Denmark | 1 | -1 | 45.90% | 54.10% |
| France | Tunisia | -1 | 1 | 66.80% | 33.20% |
| Argentina | Poland | -1 | 1 | 49.90% | 50.10% |
| Mexico | Saudi Arabia | -0.75 | 0.75 | 50.20% | 49.80% |
| Canada | Morocco | 0.25 | -0.25 | 52.10% | 47.90% |
| Belgium | Croatia | 0 | 0 | 55.40% | 44.60% |
| Costa Rica | Germany | 2.5 | -2.5 | 57.70% | 42.30% |
| Japan | Spain | 1.25 | -1.25 | 46.10% | 53.90% |
| Ghana | Uruguay | 0.75 | -0.75 | 50.80% | 49.20% |
| South Korea | Portugal | 1 | -1 | 49.90% | 50.10% |
| Brazil | Cameroon | -1.75 | 1.75 | 53.60% | 46.40% |
| Serbia | Switzerland | 0.25 | -0.25 | 54.30% | 45.70% |
I was really hoping there would be some genuine value in the Asian handicap market for both Iran and Wales in their final round matchups with the USA and England respectively. But while there is slight value with each, I am not prepared to pull the trigger on them.
Likewise for Qatar when they meet the Netherlands. Slight value with the hosts at +2 goals against a team that has done nothing near enough to impress so far.
But I will pull the trigger on Canada to finish the tournament with a solid performance getting +0.25 goals against Morocco.
And, oh hell, am I really going to do this? Yes, it looks like I am. I will take Belgium to get their expletive together at +0 goals against Croatia. I know you hate it. I hate. I hate it so much, I’m starting to like it.
- Canada +0.25 goals (AH) vs Morocco
- Belgium +0 goals (AH) vs Croatia
Let’s now turn our attention to goal totals and both teams to score. And brace yourself, we’re taking some unders.
World Cup 2022 Round 3: Goal Total Projections
So where is the value in the goal totals market in round three of the World Cup group stage?
| Team A | Team B | O/U Line | Over % | Under % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | Senegal | 2 | 45.80% | 54.20% |
| Netherlands | Qatar | 3.25 | 45.70% | 54.30% |
| Iran | USA | 2.25 | 47.80% | 52.20% |
| England | Wales | 2.5 | 45.30% | 54.70% |
| Australia | Denmark | 2.5 | 49.10% | 50.90% |
| France | Tunisia | 2.5 | 51.80% | 48.20% |
| Argentina | Poland | 2.25 | 51.70% | 48.30% |
| Mexico | Saudi Arabia | 2.75 | 36.60% | 63.40% |
| Canada | Morocco | 2.5 | 41.70% | 58.30% |
| Belgium | Croatia | 2.5 | 46.00% | 54.00% |
| Costa Rica | Germany | 3.5 | 39.10% | 60.90% |
| Japan | Spain | 2.75 | 49.50% | 50.50% |
| Ghana | Uruguay | 2.5 | 42.70% | 57.30% |
| South Korea | Portugal | 2.5 | 48.70% | 51.30% |
| Brazil | Cameroon | 3 | 46.40% | 53.60% |
| Serbia | Switzerland | 2.5 | 44.70% | 55.30% |
There are a few matches where we see some value in the goal totals market.
These are:
- Ecuador vs Senegal, Under 2 goals
- Mexico vs Saudi Arabia, Under 2.75 goals
- Costa Rica vs Germany, Under 3.5 goals
So, do we see any value for any of these matches in the BTTS – No market. Let’s take a look.
World Cup 2022 Round 3: Both Teams To Score Projections
Below are the probabilities for both teams to score yes and no for the full list of round 3 matches.
| Team A | Team B | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ecuador | Senegal | 40.80% | 59.20% |
| Netherlands | Qatar | 45.40% | 54.60% |
| Iran | USA | 45.50% | 54.50% |
| England | Wales | 42.10% | 57.90% |
| Australia | Denmark | 43.70% | 56.30% |
| France | Tunisia | 38.10% | 61.90% |
| Argentina | Poland | 40.90% | 59.10% |
| Mexico | Saudi Arabia | 44.30% | 55.70% |
| Canada | Morocco | 47.50% | 52.50% |
| Belgium | Croatia | 51.00% | 49.00% |
| Costa Rica | Germany | 33.20% | 66.80% |
| Japan | Spain | 46.20% | 53.80% |
| Ghana | Uruguay | 43.50% | 56.50% |
| South Korea | Portugal | 45.40% | 54.60% |
| Brazil | Cameroon | 36.30% | 63.70% |
| Serbia | Switzerland | 50.10% | 49.90% |
We’ll pass on the under in the Ecuador vs Senegal match as there’s only slight value in the BTTS – No market.
I will get involved in the Mexico vs Saudi Arabia match. Let’s take the Under 2.75 goals.
And for the Costa Rica vs Germany match. I have to be honest, I am little apprehensive here. But I just see this as one of those matches where I just hold on tight and know I am taking the right side. So let’s go. Under 3.5 goals, Costa Rica vs Germany.
So now it gets serious. We’re heading into the third round of the knockout stage and we have five best bets.
Enjoy your wagering as the group stage concludes.
As always, gamble responsibly.
