Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction: Early Bird Betting Preview

Roll up, roll up, and welcome to our Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund prediction early bird betting preview by Sam Ingram.

Atletico Madrid, who had not lost at home in La Liga until the weekend, has made the Wanda Metropolitano a fortress for visiting teams. The 0-3 defeat at the hands of Barcelona arrived on the weekend following Spanish (vs Italy) Champions League heroics from both sides, who featured in the rare Atleti home loss.

Barcelona raced to a two-goal lead against Napoli in Catalonia, whilst Atleti scrapped their way through a proper Champions League tie against a very handy Inter Milan outfit. Of course, midweek European outings will have played their part, but that’s no slant on Barca’s La Liga triumph on Sunday.

Prediction: Atletico Madrid 2-1 Dortmund

1. Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Early Bird Tip: Atletico Madrid -0.5 Asian Handicap

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Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction: Too Strong at the Wanda

Europe, Champions League, Wednesday, April 10th, 20:00 (UK)

The red faction of Madrid will welcome Borussia Dortmund to the first leg of the Champions League quarter-final in April, although ‘welcome’ won’t feel like the correct word when Simeone’s Street Fighters, as coined by TNT commentators (UK) in their Round of 16 tie, open the doors to a visiting Bundesliga ensemble.

It’s Borussia Dortmund tasked with 90 minutes at the Wanda Metropolitano before a return date in Germany to decide one half of a Champions League semi-final. An early Jadon Sancho strike in the third minute, and Marco Reus, still scoring vital European goals in front of the Yellow Wall way into his thirties, sealed the tie with a goal in added-on time at the end of 90 minutes. The 3-1 aggregate victory paints a picture of a straightforward path to meeting Atleti on home soil in April to open up the next Round, but it was far from comfortable.

The Dortmund vs PSV Eindhoven draw felt like the clash between the competition’s two smaller sides, with the vultures circling in the hope they were fortunate enough to come against the winner in the Quarters. Not many would have expected the two to be in with a 50% chance of reaching a quarter-final this season. The Eredivisie, bar Ajax in their pomp, rarely produce sides capable of harnessing an assault on the last stages of the Champions League. And Dortmund, well, let’s say it’s difficult to place too much trust in them this season as a punter.

Tricky Aprils

Edin Terzic’s side sit twenty points behind a steamrollering Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Stuttgart have positioned themselves between Bayern Munich in second and Borussia Dortmund in fourth place, while RB Leipzig attacks from the rear just one point behind. Don’t be surprised if Borussia Dortmund fail to lock in a top-four finish in Germany this season, highlighting their below-par campaign compared to seasons gone by.

Interestingly, following the international break, Dortmund face Bayern in Munich, Stuttgart at home, before taking on Atleti four days late. To round April off, Bayer Leverkusen and RB Leipzig fixtures feature to make it the most tricky of months to navigate. April will define their season, which might play havoc on weary Dortmund legs.

Atleti are in a similar boat, though. Although their home form rarely falters, which feeds into the selection here, their away performances have single-handedly ushered them into fifth place in La Liga. They’ve won just 4/14 matches on the road domestically in Spain’s top-flight. April is a bit kinder to Diego Simeone, though they still face Girona and Athletic Club – two sides wedged between Atleti and the league leaders elsewhere in the capital.

Of course, league form will be put on the back burner here, but it’s not as if either team can place their sole focus on the upcoming Champions League legs. You can be sure the Wanda will be in full voice. And you’d assume it’d be business as usual in front of the home crowd in the first leg despite the Barca-shaped blip on Sunday when Robert Lewandowski recorded three goal involvements away to Atleti: a feat not repeated since Cristiano Ronaldo hit a hat-trick there in 2016.

Favourably Priced

Antoine Griezmann’s clean bill of health is so important to consider here. He makes this Atleti team tick. The Frenchman breathes life into Alvaro Morata up top, delicately threading the midfield and progressive play in the attacking third together. Without him, Atleti will struggle. With him, they’ve every chance of blowing Dortmund away in the first leg.

The 2.00 price Atleti opened at is long gone, but the available 1.89 is one to gobble up at home. That should go off shorter, given Dortmund’s shortcomings this season.

Atleti are stubbornly agile at home. They find a way to win, as they often do in Europe’s elite competition under their manager. The midfield possesses a collective tenacious appetite laser-focused on winning games any way they can. There are supremely talented footballers in that middle third from Rodrigo de Paul to Koke – none of which shirk defensive responsibilities, and all of which bring their own punchy brand of footballing intellect to compliment the side in attacking moments.

The Spaniards boast better players on the whole; they’ve got a deeper talent pool to pick from and a much better manager on the sidelines to pick from said pool. That might sound like a lazy analysis of the situation, but group all of the above together, and it’s hard to see Dortmund coming out on top.

As it’s a two-legged tie, it also should be noted how Dortmund would snatch your hand off right now to be heading to Germany trailing by a one-goal deficit. That clearly makes the Asian Handicap an attractive pick – one I’d expect to be priced nearer 1.70 than 2.00 come kick off in Madrid.

If you’re not convinced, that’s fair enough. I’ll leave you with this:

Atletico Madrid haven’t lost a Champions League knockout tie at home since Ajax got the better of them in the 1996/97 quarter-final. It’d take someone much braver than myself to back against them.

• Atletico Madrid vs Dortmund Prediction 1: Atletico Madrid -0.5 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.89
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stake: 15/10

Match OPTA Stats: Dortmund desperate to avoid defeat

• Atleti stopped Internazionale from reaching the UEFA Champions League quarter-final in consecutive seasons for the third time,
• Atletico Madrid’s loss to Barcelona was the first at home in La Liga this season (W13/D1/L1)
• The Inter Milan match was Diego Simeone’s 50th home game in charge in the UEFA  Champions League, the seventh manager to reach that particular milestone. He’s lost just five of his 50 at home so far (W31 D14), with no manager losing fewer in their first 50 (Pep Guardiola and José Mourinho also 5).
• After scoring in the last round, Jadon Sancho has been directly involved in nine goals in 12 home games for Borussia Dortmund in the  UEFA Champions League (five goals, four assists). The tie against PSV was his first game for Dortmund at Signal Iduna Park in the competition since December 2020 (vs Lazio).
• When avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg of a UEFA Champions League knockout stage tie,  Borussia Dortmund have always progressed to the next round. Their 1-1 draw in Eindhoven in the first leg was the sixth such instance of this happening.
• Atlético de Madrid didn’t register a single shot on target against Inter in the first leg. They hit nine in the second, with seven coming in 90 minutes.

Atletico Madrid Fixtures: Huge month ahead

• Vs Villarreal (A)
• Vs Borussia Dortmund (H)
• Vs Girona (H)
• Vs Alaves (A)
• Vs Athletic Club (H)

Dortmund Fixtures: Wow

• Vs Bayern Munich (A)
• Vs Stuttgart (H)
• Vs Atletico Madrid (A)
• Vs Gladbach (H)
• Vs Bayer Leverkusen (H)

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