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Horse Racing Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview
We’ve lined up a Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao prediction, team news, standings and lineups preview for Monday night’s La Liga action. There’s a huge difference in quality between these two sides, with the hosts in serious danger of being relegated.
Almeria will need a miracle if they were to survive. Athletic Club are strong favourites here, with many, including Tom Winch, expecting the visitors to pile more misery on their opponents.
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Prediction, Team News, Standings and Lineups Preview
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 1: Athletic Bilbao -0.75 Asian Handicap
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 2: Gorka Guruzeta AGS
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 3: Almeria Under 1.5 Goals & Bilbao Over 0.5 Second Half Goals
In this article:
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Team News and Possible Lineups
- The Predicted Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao, La Liga Standings
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Match Stats
- How to watch Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao
- Safer Gambling
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 1: Almeria Are Abysmal
Spain, La Liga, Monday, February 12th, 20:00 (UK)
Almeria’s time in La Liga looks to be up already. They’re having a horrendous campaign. Gazika Garitano’s side has conceded the most goals, only three sides have a smaller amount, and most importantly, they still haven’t won a match in the league.
How can you trust the hosts? They’re useless, to say the least, and they’ll be up against it here on Monday night as Athletic Bilbao visits the Power Horse Stadium. The visitors have a 13-6-4 (W-D-L) record this term and have earned 16 of their 45 points away from home.
I struggle to see how the hosts shut out Bilbao, given they’ve kept just three clean sheets this term and conceded two or more times in 17 of their 23 matches. Bilbao is a tough outfit; Ernesto Valverde’s men have conceded just nine times in their 11 away days with five clean sheets.
The home team hasn’t scored at the venue in four consecutive matches, so there’s no guarantee they will score here on Monday night. Bilbao deserves to be the favourite heading into this encounter, and I expect them to claim all three points.
The reverse ended 3-0 in October; Bilbao dominated proceedings. Almeria managed just four shots that night with a lowly 0.10xG.
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 1: Athletic Bilbao -0.75 Asian Handicap (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.92
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 10/10
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 2: Gorka Is A Goalscorer
Gorka Guruzeta is Athletic Club’s leading scorer. The Spaniard has nine goals to his name this term and will be licking his lips coming up against La Liga’s worst side. Gorka scored the third in a 4-0 win over Mallorca in the previous league match. He’s priced nicely to find the back of the net once again in this fixture.
The forward has averaged 0.52 goals per 90 in 23/24. He’s averaging 2.70 shots with 1.32 coming on target. Those are some strong statistics from our man. Gorka bagged the opener in the reverse fixture.
There’s no side that has a worse xGA than Almeria. They’ve also conceded the greatest number of penalties. Gorka has a chance of taking the spot kick if his side were to receive one.
Bilbao will have joy here in offensive areas. That comes without a doubt. Almeria conceded two against Valencia in their previous outing. Both strikers scored. Omorodion scored for Alaves the game before, Vini did so for Real, whilst Anti Budimir scored for Osasuna when they hosted this Almeria side.
It’s clear that players leading the line for their respective sides have had plenty of joy in finding the back of the net in recent weeks. Let’s hope Athletic Club’s main man can grab himself another goal.
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 2: Gorka Guruzeta AGS (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.40
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 5/10
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 3: Visitors Class Is Evident
Almeria has scored more than once on just six occasions this season; they’ll be without significant players heading here in offensive areas, and I just can’t see them scoring twice.
Statistically, Athletic Club has the best xGA figure in the division. Valverde’s side has conceded just four goals in their previous ten outings.
Seven teams have scored multiple times against Athletic Club this term. Each of those teams is miles better than Almeria. This part of the selection has cashed in each of Bilbao’s previous ten La Liga games.
With Athletic Club playing against Atletico several days before, they may take some time to get going in this encounter; we know they are a class above Almeria, and I expect them to take control of this match as the game progresses.
Almeria has conceded 21 times at home this season, 13 of those have come after the break. In every game they’ve conceded here, at least one has arrived in the second half. With the hosts desperate for points, they’ll have to, at some point, throw men forward, which will, of course, allow them to become vulnerable at the back.
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Tip 3: Almeria Under 1.5 Goals & Bilbao Over 0.5 Second Half Goals (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.95
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 7/10
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Predictions odds via bet365 as at 14:00, February 6th, 2024. Odds may now differ.
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Team News and Possible Lineups: It Can’t Get Much Worse For Almeria
I don’t think a fully fit squad will save Almeria’s survival hopes. Luis Suarez is the real major doubt; the Colombian has been suffering from a thigh injury that forced him off early on in their defeat to Real Madrid. His club will be wishing he’s back sooner rather than later, given his importance on the pitch.
Leo Baptistao was sent off from the bench in Almeria’s defeat to Valencia. It goes from bad to worse for the basement boys, who’ll be in desperate need of someone to step up on the goal front.
Athletic Club are in great shape for this time of the season. They have a limited injury list. Nico Willams is a slight doubt due to a thigh injury. Inigo Lekue and Alex Berenguer are back in training and should be available for selection.
Athletic Club has a huge Copa Del Rey clash against Atleti on Wednesday night. They may rotate slightly. They’ll be hoping that no injuries occur at the Metropolitano.
Almeria possible starting lineup:
Maximiano; Pubill, Montes, Chumi, Centelles, Gonzalez, Lopy, Arribas, Ramazani, Baba; Romero
Athletic Bilbao possible starting lineup:
Simon; De Marcos, Vivian, Parades, Berchiche, Galarreta, Vesga, Williams, Sancet, Williams; Guruzeta
The Predicted Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao La Liga Standings by BETSiE
Our in-house predictive model, BETSiE, has had a go at predicting the La Liga standings ahead of the Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao, currently 20th vs 5th, fixture by utilising the underlying data from the 2023/24 season up until this point.
For more league-specific BETSiE content including standings, probabilities and predictions, visit her page here – it’s worth it.
Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao Standings
| POSITION | CLUB | GAMES | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26.0 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 76.7 | 32.2 | 44.6 | 85.1 |
| 2 | Barcelona | 38 | 24.5 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 82.4 | 43.9 | 38.5 | 81.7 |
| 3 | Girona | 38 | 23.6 | 7.5 | 6.9 | 82.2 | 51.7 | 30.6 | 78.4 |
| 4 | Ath Bilbao | 38 | 21.9 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 71.0 | 38.4 | 32.6 | 74.2 |
| 5 | Atl. Madrid | 38 | 22.4 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 72.5 | 44.2 | 28.3 | 73.1 |
| 6 | Sociedad | 38 | 16.0 | 12.3 | 9.8 | 55.2 | 41.8 | 13.4 | 60.1 |
| 7 | Valencia | 38 | 15.3 | 9.6 | 13.1 | 46.8 | 43.8 | 3.0 | 55.4 |
| 8 | Betis | 38 | 13.5 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 47.0 | 46.3 | 0.6 | 54.9 |
| 9 | Getafe | 38 | 12.1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 48.7 | 54.0 | -5.3 | 48.8 |
| 10 | Alaves | 38 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 16.1 | 42.6 | 49.5 | -6.9 | 47.2 |
| 11 | Las Palmas | 38 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 16.7 | 35.9 | 42.8 | -6.9 | 47.1 |
| 12 | Vallecano | 38 | 11.5 | 12.4 | 14.2 | 41.4 | 51.2 | -9.8 | 46.8 |
| 13 | Osasuna | 38 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 16.9 | 46.8 | 58.4 | -11.6 | 46.5 |
| 14 | Celta | 38 | 10.0 | 10.9 | 17.0 | 46.3 | 57.7 | -11.4 | 41.0 |
| 15 | Mallorca | 38 | 8.4 | 15.4 | 14.2 | 37.9 | 48.2 | -10.3 | 40.6 |
| 16 | Villarreal | 38 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 19.3 | 52.5 | 75.4 | -22.9 | 39.0 |
| 17 | Sevilla | 38 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 19.0 | 45.6 | 61.8 | -16.2 | 35.0 |
| 18 | Granada | 38 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 22.2 | 42.2 | 70.9 | -28.7 | 29.5 |
| 19 | Cadiz | 38 | 5.5 | 11.9 | 20.5 | 30.2 | 61.5 | -31.3 | 28.6 |
| 20 | Almeria | 38 | 5.5 | 9.9 | 22.6 | 44.7 | 74.8 | -30.2 | 26.4 |
Match Stats: One-Sided Affair
- Almeria have conceded the greatest amount of La Liga goals this season (51).
- Almeria haven’t won a La Liga match all season.
- Only two sides have conceded fewer goals than Bilbao.
- The reverse fixture ended 3-0, Almeria had four shots that night.
- Bilbao have conceded just four goals in their previous ten La Liga matches.
- Bilbao have won the previous five meetings between these sides.
How To Watch
- Almeria vs Athletic Bilbao, La Liga.
- Date and Time: Monday, February 12th, 20:00 (UK)
- How to Watch or Stream on TV (UK): Viaplay
SAFER GAMBLING
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