AC Milan vs Roma Prediction: Team News and Lineups Preview

Two of Italy’s most in-form sides meet in a first-ever European tie and our Serie A expert, Daniele Fisichella, has prepared AC Milan vs Roma prediction, team news, lineups and fixtures preview.

Prediction: AC Milan 2-0 Roma

The Rossoneri have won seven consecutive matches (for the first time since 2006) and the Giallorossi are galvanized after the success in the derby. The statistics and records between Italian sides in Europe suggest these are normally tense and cagey affairs, but will the trend continue this Europa League Thursday at San Siro?

• AC Milan vs Roma Tip 1: Under 2.25 Goals
• AC Milan vs Roma Tip 2: AC Milan Win
• AC Milan vs Roma Tip 3: Gianluca Mancini To Be Booked

AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 1: Pioli and De Rossi deserve to continue next season

Europa League, Quarter-Final, 1st leg, Thursday, April 11th, 20:00 (UK)

Both sides could not approach this quarter-final in better physical and mental conditions. In fact, in the last 11 Serie games, AC Milan and Roma have collected 26 points apiece, losing once and averaging just above two goals per match (Roma 24 in total and AC Milan 22). 

The hosts have kept peace with leader Inter and if it wasn’t for their bad spell in October-November (when AC Milan only achieved two points in four games), we’d be looking at the upcoming Milan Derby as a potential Scudetto decider. 

Often under pressure and criticized, Rossoneri’s manager Stefano Pioli has seen his side growing in confidence and volume of attacking play in the last period as AC Milan currently have one more point in the table compared to when they won the title in 2021/2022 and scored four more goals than two seasons ago. 

Would it be enough to save Pioli’s job after the summer? With second place in the league locked in, the Europa League campaign, in a competition that seven-time continental champions AC Milan have never won, will likely define the fate of the 58-year-old coach. 

• AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 1: Under 2.25 Goals (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.02
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 2: Few goals in all-Italy European ties

If things look bright for the AC Milan boss, what can be said about Daniele De Rossi, who has wholly transformed Roma into a more aggressive and proactive side in the space of just two and a half months? 

Saturday’s success against Lazio has strengthened the case for the former captain’s contract to be extended. 

It was the Giallorossi’s first win in the last five derbies that, thanks to Bologna’s scoreless draw at Frosinone, helped them close the gap with the fourth spot to only three points. 

Josè Mourinho lost his job after the visitors got beaten 3-1 at San Siro by AC Milan and were ninth in the table. Now they’re fifth and have only lost two (against Inter and Brighton) of the last 15 in all competitions. 

Considering these are Italy’s second and third-best attacks and that all the last eight head-to-head ended with both teams on the scoresheet, you might be tempted to opt for Over 2.5 Goals. 

However, Italian ‘derbies’ in Europe, and especially first legs, are often grudge, nervous and tight affairs. 

In fact Serie A teams have played each other 36 times in Europe (the first game was Juventus vs Verona, in the European Cup in 1985/1986): 29 of these matches have produced only two goals or less. 

The majority of these ties were played when the away goals rule was still in place, however all last season’s four Champions League matches, where AC Milan faced Napoli first and then Inter Milan, ended with less than three goals scored. 

• AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 2: AC Milan Win (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.85
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 6/10

AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 3: From hero to zero?

Lately the hosts forward line is firing from all cylinders. Rafael Leao has scored eight goals and provided six assists since January, Olivier Giroud is only three goals short off his record with AC Milan (18 goals in 2021/2022) and Christian Pulisic, who played in a central position against Lecce, has broken his personal league record (10 goals) in Europe. 

With the returning Ruben Loftus-Cheek, who has already netted four times in the Europa League, and Samuel Chukwueze, whose performances have been improving, the Milanese seem to have more ammunition up front than the visitors.  

In fact, despite their recent change of fortunes under De Rossi, Roma have only two players in double figures this season (Lukaku, who hasn’t scored in the last five, and Dybala) and have only kept three away clean sheets in all competitions, the last two against Frosinone and Lecce, where they suffered for large spells.

The Giallorossi were involved in a much more challenging game at the weekend compared to their rivals. 

The Rome derby was marked by frequent interruptions that produced 29 fouls and eight cards, compared to just 16 infringements and two bookings in Milan’s home comfortable 3-0 win against Lecce. 

In a tense and nervous game, one of the most likely players to get booked would always be Rome centre-back, Gianluca Mancini. 

In fact, last Saturday’s match-winner has already been cautioned 11 times (including against Lazio) and sent off once this season, and in his career, he has received five cards in 11 games played against the Rossoneri. 

• AC Milan vs Roma Prediction 3: Gianluca Mancini To Be Booked  (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 2.60
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 4/10

AC Milan vs Roma Prediction odds via bet365 as at 08:50, April 7th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

AC Milan vs Roma Team News and Possible Lineups: an important defender unavailable in both camps

Tomori is suspended, and Thiaw is doubtful due to a foot injury. 

Loftus-Cheek will play alongside Leao and Pulisic behind Giroud. Midfielders Pobega and Kalulu are both not available, former Roma player Florenzi is in contention with Calabria for a start at right-back. 

De Rossi is without Ndicka (suspended, just like in the derby against Lazio). 

Huijsen is not on the UEFA list, so Llorente or Smalling should play as centre-back next to Mancini. Celik will retain his place as right-back, whereas Spinazzola is set to replace Angeliño on the opposite flank. Dybala, Lukaku and El Shaarawy will form the attack; Tammy Abraham, who returned to action in the derby after 11 months’ absence, will start from the bench.

AC Milan possible starting lineup:
Maignan; Calabria, Kjaer, Gabbia, Theo Hernandez; Bennacer, Reijnders; Pulisic, Loftus-Cheek, Leao; Giroud.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Svilar; Celik, Mancini, Llorente, Spinazzola; Cristante, Paredes, Pellegrini; Dybala, Lukaku, El Shaarawy.

Match Stats: a strong Rossoneri supremacy

• This is the first time AC Milan and Roma meet in a European competition. The hosts are unbeaten in the last nine games against the Giallorossi (six wins, three draws).
• Seven of the last eight games between these two sides have produced more than three goals.
• AC Milan have (alongside Inter, Bologna and Torino) Serie A’s best home defense with only eight goals conceded. 
• Roma’s last four games in all competitions have only produced three goals.
• Italian sides have met 36 times in Europe. 29 of these games have ended with less than three goals scored. 

AC Milan Fixtures: three massive games in a row

• Vs Sassuolo (A)
• Vs Roma, Europa League (A)
• Vs Inter (H)
• Vs Juventus (A)
• Vs Genoa (H)

Roma Fixtures: huge Champions League six-pointers

• Vs Udinese (A)
• Vs AC Milan, Europa League (H)
• Vs Bologna (H)
• Vs Napoli (A)
• Vs Juventus  (H)

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